U.S. Pauses Exports of Jet Engine Technology and Chip Software to China
Now this is a very interesting development. It would come sooner or later anyway. Trump allowed the sales of the LEAP 1C engine to go through during is first term, but now it appears to be part of his art of the deal pending future trade negotiations with China. It is a developing story and not clear how strict the suspension will be (all US-origin C919 components, or just some that China could source domestically or from EU, or in between). Waiting BIS updates. Either way, changes to C919 components (particularly the engine) would require recertification with CAAC, which would delay the C919 programme by several years. We could be seeing the Huawei/ZTE moment for COMAC.
In return, China would almost certainly (but quietly) suspend purchase of Boeing airliners. Chinese airliner travelers would have to be stuck with Airbus and workable Boeings for the time being. China's superior airline safety record is a plus nonetheless.
In short, this will likely benefit China's heavily-indebted high-speed rail industry, which I argue has a genuine overcapacity, particularly for lines constructed west of the Guanzhong Plains, in sparsely populated places like Inner Mongolian, Ningxia, etc. However, if one intends to travel to a place within a 5-hour train ride distance (particularly if there's a regularly scheduled train every hour or two), one should choose trains as opposed to more expensive air travel. HSRs are also more "e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y f r i e n d l y", to put it in a Baizuo Woke manner.
In the long-term, there would likely be more incentives to construct C919B using the domestic CJ1000 engines and fully-domestic C929. This would be a win for China, but it will probably take 5-10 years. It took Huawei from 2018 until late 2023 to finally decouple from the US and recover from sanctions. For an industry (like commercial airliners) that China has long fallen behind the West, it could take longer.