The Kashmir conflict 2025.

T

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
FriedRiceNSpice said:
Are you done blabbering nonsense about a fantasy world in which nuclear weapons don't exist?

Please do yourself a favor and avoid appearing like a complete fool by first understanding the most important rule about military operations: tyranny of distance. A US-European force would need a 8 fold advantage in quantity to defeat China in East Asia.
Click to expand...
Nukes are suicide bombs, and will not be used unless US is marching on Beijing or China is marching on Washington.

US is technically in the region since its vassals Korea and Japan is here. US can get lots of supplies and support from these vassal who have large industries. So, tyranny of distance don't apply that much.
 
Nevermore

Nevermore

New Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Availability of a particular weapon is dependent on many factors including as you said availability of funding, parts and most important of all political will. If you look at the weapons Ukraine had available before 2022 invasion, pretty much everything was mothballed due to lack of spare parts, maintenance and funds. But the moment war started Ukraine started to bring online retired planes, tanks, missiles and everything. Ukraine probably brought more s-300 and Su-27 than they had before the war and also made up for losses. This is what war does to countries, it brings all the comprehensive national capabilities.

If US and China fight a world war 3, funding will not be an issue at all, as US can easily spend 50% of GDP in defense like they did in the past. They can also print money with ease. US govt can enact defense production laws that can force companies to produce more spare parts, radars and other equipment. Problems that seems intractable now completely melts away when war starts.

Will it take time to bring back these planes? Sure, producing and servicing old planes will take time, but it will be much faster and easier to bring old planes back and even upgrade them with new radars than it is to build a new plane from scratch.

Moreover, China may have a lot of manufacturing capability but that manufacturing is concentrated on primary industry like production of steel and low grade consumer industry of making plastics, shoes and such. When it comes to production of sophisiticated equipment such as Jet engines, Planes, Chips and other sophisticated equipment, US, europe and its asian allies is far ahead. In a war, sure China can produce thousands of low grade tanks for example, but can it produce thousands of highly sophisticated Fighter jet with advanced materials, thermal imaging and so on? I don't think so, they simply lack the industry to produce the parts in that level of quantity. US and Europe has the aerospace industry to produce a lot more.

People don't really understand how extreme and comprehensive the power of US and allies are. They have been dominating industries for centuries and those years of dominance add up and create advantages that are not easy to overcome.

China and Russia will obviously be formidable, and I expect China to slowly become more dominant and powerful than US, but time is not there yet. Maybe 10 years from now, China will have more aerospace, material and chip capacity than US. But as of right now, China is still 80% low value and 20% high value manufacturing country. US and Europe is like 90% high value in their manufacturing industry.
Click to expand...
But in terms of the Russia Ukraine war, the weapons provided by the Western camp were not as impressive as expected.
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
tamsen_ikard said:
But as of right now, China is still 80% low value and 20% high value manufacturing country. US and Europe is like 90% high value in their manufacturing industry.
Click to expand...
Not only are you clueless about how military operations work, you are completely ignorant about the current state of manufacturing and technological capability in China, the US, and Europe.

Rather than ruining your credibility and demonstrating your complete lack of knowledge and understanding, you should stick to only reading and avoid polluting the forum with below trash tier garbage posts.
 
Last edited:
E

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
What lessons did the Indians take in this conflict? People were speculating maybe IAF will again look for the next magic airplane in F-35 or Su-57, or perhaps Indians may display a rare case of self consciousness and reflect on their institution and doctrinal weaknesses?

I think there is another possibility: That India simply accept the fact that they are no good in the air and it won't change any time soon. Instead they'll double down and play to their strength in long range ground strike capabilities in cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones.

They'll increase procurements in this direction so that in the next conflict they can deliver a overwhelming alpha strike that at minimum take PAF out of the equation for some time period and at maximum dealing considerable damage to PAF airframes and personal. In any case this will allow India's third rate air force to dominate the sky and deal sustained damage that way
 
Tomboy

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Flight ability of a particular weapon is dependent on many factors including as you said availability of funding, parts and most important of all political will. If you look at the weapons Ukraine had available before 2022 invasion, pretty much everything was mothballed due to lack of spare parts, maintenance and funds. But the moment war started Ukraine started to bring online retired planes, tanks, missiles and everything. Ukraine probably brought more s-300 and Su-27 than they had before the war and also made up for losses. This is what war does to countries, it brings all the comprehensive national capabilities.

If US and China fight a world war 3, funding will not be an issue at all, as US can easily spend 50% of GDP in defense like they did in the past. They can also print money with ease. US govt can enact defense production laws that can force companies to produce more spare parts, radars and other equipment. Problems that seems intractable now completely melts away when war starts.

Will it take time to bring back these planes? Sure, producing and servicing old planes will take time, but it will be much faster and easier to bring old planes back and even upgrade them with new radars than it is to build a new plane from scratch.

Moreover, China may have a lot of manufacturing capability but that manufacturing is concentrated on primary industry like production of steel and low grade consumer industry of making plastics, shoes and such. When it comes to production of sophisiticated equipment such as Jet engines, Planes, Chips and other sophisticated equipment, US, europe and its asian allies is far ahead. In a war, sure China can produce thousands of low grade tanks for example, but can it produce thousands of highly sophisticated Fighter jet with advanced materials, thermal imaging and so on? I don't think so, they simply lack the industry to produce the parts in that level of quantity. US and Europe has the aerospace industry to produce a lot more.

People don't really understand how extreme and comprehensive the power of US and allies are. They have been dominating industries for centuries and those years of dominance add up and create advantages that are not easy to overcome.

China and Russia will obviously be formidable, and I expect China to slowly become more dominant and powerful than US, but time is not there yet. Maybe 10 years from now, China will have more aerospace, material and chip capacity than US. But as of right now, China is still 80% low value and 20% high value manufacturing country. US and Europe is like 90% high value in their manufacturing industry.
Click to expand...
I think you forgot the fact that China outproduces the US in advanced warships and aircraft... Remember that 170 something F-35 per year is for both US and a bunch of other countries while the 100+ J-20 per year is for PLAAF only add the however much J-16s they are making. It is very possible the amount of new aircraft inducted per year for PLAAF exceeds that of the USAF. As for warships its hardly a competition, China hands down produces far more warships then the US while being more technologically advanced(Only a single Flight III burke exist and the rest hasn't even started construction and Constellation class frigate is a joke, its IMO likely that next generation frigate(Not the 054B) the PLAN is building right now could reach mass production stage before the first constellation is launched). Similar case for submarines, while the US has temporarily a qualitative advantage with Virginia class but 095 has already under construction. We might see it launch soon and once that launches I doubt mass production would be much longer. Remember the ~3.5 average subs launched within the last two years isn't actually the full capacity of the Bohai yard, we'll likely see it utilzed fully with mass production of 095 class. For ＂Low tech tanks＂, I'm not sure you understand how much tech actually goes into a modern MBT, China is pumping out hundreds of new IFVs all equipped with the latest thermal sight and APS there is nothing ＂low tech＂ about that. Funnily enough you mentioned thermal sights because China basically managed to completely crash the market for those because the ones they make are so cheap yet at the same quality as western alternatives.


PS: China dominates the mature node market for chips, these are the actual chips used in military hardware for reliability, China has no issue in self-sufficiency in military chips and no production bottlenecks as well
 
Last edited:
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
tamsen_ikard said:
Nukes are suicide bombs, and will not be used unless US is marching on Beijing or China is marching on Washington.

US is technically in the region since its vassals Korea and Japan is here. US can get lots of supplies and support from these vassal who have large industries. So, tyranny of distance don't apply that much.
Click to expand...

Nukes ensure neither China nor the US can be defeated in total war. Only victory in a limited war would be possible for either side, in which case you need to define the war goals of each side before any discussion on the outcome can take place.

Thank you for confirming you don't really understand what tyranny of distance is.
 
T

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
FriedRiceNSpice said:
Not only are you clueless about how military operations work, you are completely ignorant about the current state of manufacturing and technological capability in China, the US, and Europe.

Rather than ruining your credibility and demonstrating your complete lack of knowledge and understanding, you should stick to only reading and avoid polluting the forum with below trash tier garbage posts.
Click to expand...


Some quick search from LLMS:
  • Commercial aircraft
  • China’s manufacturing composition
So, 43+28 = 71% of China's industry is still not high tech manufacturing.

Boeing can easily change its civillian plane manufacturing capacity into producing warplanes. China lacks the comprehensive aerospace industrial capacity to do that. They have the tech but lack the capacity in terms of actual factories, workers actively producing aerospace.

Some people here seems to have inflated views about China's current standing and capacity in the world. I don't. I am a realist and I don't under-estimate China's enemy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lex
crazyinsane105

crazyinsane105

Junior Member
VIP Professional
enroger said:
What lessons did the Indians take in this conflict? People were speculating maybe IAF will again look for the next magic airplane in F-35 or Su-57, or perhaps Indians may display a rare case of self consciousness and reflect on their institution and doctrinal weaknesses?

I think there is another possibility: That India simply accept the fact that they are no good in the air and it won't change any time soon. Instead they'll double down and play to their strength in long range ground strike capabilities in cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones.

They'll increase procurements in this direction so that in the next conflict they can deliver a overwhelming alpha strike that at minimum take PAF out of the equation for some time period and at maximum dealing considerable damage to PAF airframes and personal. In any case this will allow India's third rate air force to dominate the sky and deal sustained damage that way
Click to expand...
Destruction of PAF or significant degradation of it is nuke red line threshold set by Pakistan. Unless India wants to test this out, I don’t think this is their intention
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
If US and China fight a world war 3, funding will not be an issue at all, as US can easily spend 50% of GDP in defense like they did in the past. They can also print money with ease. US govt can enact defense production laws that can force companies to produce more spare parts, radars and other equipment. Problems that seems intractable now completely melts away when war starts.
Click to expand...
In 2024, the United States spent more on net interest on its national debt than it did on national defense.. they just cannot spend much on military let alone 50 percent.

tamsen_ikard said:
Moreover, China may have a lot of manufacturing capability but that manufacturing is concentrated on primary industry like production of steel and low grade consumer industry of making plastics, shoes and such. When it comes to production of sophisiticated equipment such as Jet engines, Planes, Chips and other sophisticated equipment, US, europe and its asian allies is far ahead. In a war, sure China can produce thousands of low grade tanks for example, but can it produce thousands of highly sophisticated Fighter jet with advanced materials, thermal imaging and so on? I don't think so, they simply lack the industry to produce the parts in that level of quantity. US and Europe has the aerospace industry to produce a lot more.
Click to expand...
my GOD.

you are completely ignorant about the state of manufacturing and technology in China, the US, and Europe..

Europe -

1.Dassault Aviation aimed to produce 3 Rafale fighter jets per month, which translates to 36 units per year

2.Typhoon Euro fighter production with a peak of around 60 aircraft per year. However, it is now significantly lower, with estimates ranging from 20-24 aircrafts per year.

3.The Saab Gripen E/F, also known as Gripen NG (Next Generation), has a production capacity of up to 25 fighters per year.

AVIC Shenyang can alone produce 60+ J-16 annually without any burden. i m not even talking about Chengdu and Xian. now tell me what is the production rate of J-20.. annual AESA radar production, hundreds of RF/Logic chips/Display and other high tech parts for production. China doing this with just 1.3 percent of its GDP.

China right now producing more military gas turbine engines than UK+France+Russia+Germany combined annually..

tamsen_ikard said:
China is still 80% low value and 20% high value manufacturing country. US and Europe is like 90% high value in their manufacturing industry.
Click to expand...
bro this level of copium i didn't expect from you .. its now confirmed you know nothing about China. my humble request to you is, open google and start searching.

China is the largest High tech exporter in the world. worth 1 trillion USD

largest producer of high end Steel , high end chemicals , Aluminum and composite material

largest producer of display , laptops, mobile and other gadgets

China is the largest automobile exporter in the world.. sold 6+ million vehicles last year

China is the second largest integrated circuits exporter in the world. last year they sold more semiconductors than cars. LOOL

China is the largest exporter of Electronics in the world

China is the largest exporter of Heavy machinery in the world

China is the biggest shipbuilder in the world. accounts 50 percent of the global total

China is also one of the largest exporter of gas turbine/turbofan blades to GE/RR and Safran

outside EU/USA, China has the highest number of Tier 1 suppliers in Airbus/Boeing supply chain.

these are the few examples of long list of China's dominance in high tech sector...
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
tamsen_ikard said:
Some quick search from LLMS:
  • Commercial aircraft
  • China’s manufacturing composition
So, 43+28 = 71% of China's industry is still not high tech manufacturing.

Boeing can easily change its civillian plane manufacturing capacity into producing warplanes. China lacks the comprehensive aerospace industrial capacity to do that. They have the tech but lack the capacity in terms of actual factories, workers actively producing aerospace.

Some people here seems to have inflated views about China's current standing and capacity in the world. I don't. I am a realist and I don't under-estimate China's enemy.
Click to expand...
You vastly underestimate the complexity of aerospace manufacturing if you think Boeing factories can easily retool to produce military aircraft. Military aircraft production is so specialized that even switching production from one fighter model to another within the same generation requires 70-80% of the tooling and machinery to be replaced.

You think steel and chemicals are low end manufacturing that are irrelevant for war? Oh my, I don't even know to respond. Good luck equipping your military without steel and chemicals.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top