sometimes i guess you just gotta put it to the realworld test to see if the theories shake out
just like the indians did haha...
just like the indians did haha...
The Kashmir conflict 2025.
- Thread starter ohan_qwe
- Start date
He is still think about WW2, when retooling a lot easier.....US don't even have the capacity to refine the rare earth metal for aircraft Avionics, radars etc.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Even in WW2, aircraft production was predominantly scaled up via the building or expansion of existing factories rather than retooling. And even in WW2, where there was a far larger degree of parts and tooling commonality amongst different fighter models, often new production lines came online faster than older production lines could be retooled.
Nukes ensure your country is not destroyed or controlled by your enemy. Because then you might want to commit suicide and launch nukes against them. But Nukes does not prevent US from completely destroying China's navy and air force with conventional weapons. As long as US does not invade China, I don't think China will commit suicide and launch nukes. I also think if China comprehensively defeats US forces in Asia and takes over Japan and Korea, US will not launch nukes, cause again, no point launching a suicide bomb just cause you lost 2 vassals.
Distance is a tyranny if you have to bring supplies from distant places. For US, the advantage is that Korea and Japan are essentially part of their own empire. They can use the industry there as they want. They can produce the spare parts, fix the planes and ships there and even produce new weapons. Yes, US will have to bring a lot of supplies from continental US, but having Korea and Japan as vassal reduces the need for doing that quite a bit.
China is also really reliant on raw materials from distant countries, without those raw materials it will be very hard Chinese factories to function. US can easily blockade China using the choke points.
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If retooling civillian factories is that hard, then China is in even bigger trouble because China can also only rely on its existing factories for producing military grade stuff.
I discussed before, China lacks the vast reserve of retired planes, tanks and other stuff US has. China also cannot force its vast vassal empire to give up their weapons for own use, but US can.
So, China can only rely on its existing active weapons and production of new weapons. However, producing 2-300 planes or couple hundred tanks is simply nothing in true World war 3 kind of fight. In WW2, US produced 50 thousand planes, several thousand ships. Soviet Union produced 40-50 thousand tanks.
That kind of manufacturing capacity simply doesn't exist anymore because China only spends 1.5% of GDP on defense. Before WW2, most countries spent 5-10% of GDP on defense. They also fielded armies and air forces with 20-30 thousand planes, tanks and so on. So, they had the factory capacity.
Now, China lacks that capacity. They have the civillian manufacturing capacity, but as you said, its really hard to retool that. So, US will likely be able to bring online more retired planes, missiles and forced donation from allies than whatever China can produce.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
In terms of critical mineral reserves used for military production, China and Russia are number 1 and 2 and together own 46% of global reserves (considering 18 relevant minerals, including tungsten, chromium, zinc, copper, titanium, bauxite, etc)
First, the probability of Korea being involved is effectively zero. Secondly, Japan at most can satisfy perhaps 20% of the materiel needs for the US war effort, and would require 100% of the raw materials used to be imported across very long sea routes subject to interdiction by PLAN subsurface forces.
You think the PLA navy and Air Force will just sally out to get destroyed for no operational reason? No, they would just stay put in port and over Chinese air space. You also failed to consider the impossibility of garnering domestic support, let alone support from allies for such a nonsense war goal. Discussing which side would prevail is meaningless without the context of a realistic conflict scenario with clearly defined war aims for both sides.
As others have pointed out, China is currently outproducing the US in every single category of military good.
Other posters have already adequately addressed this issue, please read before repeating this nonesense. US might as well send target drones instead of old rusted airframes lacking modern avionics. Due to China's 10 fold advantage in AESA production, J-7 and J-8s outfitted with AESAs and PL-15 would have a turkey shoot against legacy US fighters with 40 yr old electronics.
Again, read the statistics other posters have already shared on this topic. Despite spending much less on defense, China already outproduces the US in all categories of military production. China also has a military-civil policy, which will enable China to scale up production of certain categories of critical military goods at a much more rapid rate than the US.
I don't even know why I'm dedicating time writing such long rebuttals when I am 80% certain that a mod is going to come along and delete all posts on the topic. Perhaps that's exactly what a mod should do, so that I can avoid wasting my time and brain cells in continuing this pointless back and forth.
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What you said is not wrong. However, If a war were to be fought between the U.S. and China, there are going to be two types of wars.
1. The U.S. bring the fight to the Chinese near their backyard. In this case, the U.S. is not limited by the number of planes, but by the limited number of airbases around China to host these planes as well as the short legs of the planes. The U.S. bases are very limited and all could be bombed initially by missiles, stealth fighters, then later by their H-6 bombers. On the Chinese side, you have vast strategic depth with hundreds of airports, all the planes could be deployed due to the large continental size country that is China. So China wins in its own backyard. China will not pick a fight outside of its own backyard.
2. A proxy war involving a third country. This is already ongoing, you might even say that the latest Indian Pakistan fight could be part of this proxy war. The countries that work with China just needed good weapons to protect itself. The groups that the U.S. generally can get to fight on its side are generally much weaker than the host country it is fighting against. Even a failed state like Burma can handle these insurgents with the help of China. Unless the U.S. do a full on invasion with its own forces, in which case it could be a Vietnam all over again, the number of planes in the U.S. arsenal does not come into play in this case.
Can you list any other case where the U.S. will be fighting with China?
Whats an ammo dump ? Like ammo depot?
Yeah that’s what I meant. Given that majority of Indian ammo depots are well within Pakistani MRLS range in Kashmir, Pakistan really held back from hitting Indian troops in that region.
SteelBird
Colonel
First of all, I hope the photos are real (I'm not good at identifying PS photos). Then the guy in the first photo doesn't look like Pakistani. Finally, according to the hit sites demonstrated by Pakistan, the five scores should belong to five different jets. If you paint all five scores on one jet, it doesn't seem fair.