China's SCS Strategy Thread

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
@ansy1968 @Bellum_Romanum and any other members in the Philippines - are you able to give a summary of yesterday's elections, the winners/losers, and what it will mean for the Marcos/Duterte rivalry as well as foreign policy vis a vis China? Much appreciated!

Results do not appear to be finalized yet as they are still counting. Headlines seem to suggest that both Marcos/Duterte camps lost ground to rising independents. I'll leave the implications to those more familiar with Filipino domestic politics, but at first glance that would suggest a lot of maneuvering, uncertainty, horse-trading, etc, in months to come.
 

Wrought

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Roughly 80% of votes are in, and things are looking pretty good for the Duterte camp. Not amazing, but better than expected. Duterte himself
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(in abstentia, since he is in the Hague).

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Facm337

New Member
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Good news. If I remember correctly in 2022 Marcos Jr had a landslide win after campaigning for continuing Duterte's China-friendly policy, so I'm sure the 180 degree reversal must be quite unpopular amongst the general population.

I'm not familiar with the domestic Philippine situation in regards to the economy + local issues and I'm sure they play a part too but overall these results look positive for SE Asia-China relations. The other major ASEAN economies Indonesia/Thailand/Malaysia/Vietnam are already firmly in the pro-China or at the very least neutral camp so if the Philippines also flips then we'll have more or less complete alignment of ASEAN with China.

IMO from China's perspective the ASEAN relationship should be of equal importance to other strategic partnerships like with Russia + Pakistan.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
@ansy1968 @Bellum_Romanum and any other members in the Philippines - are you able to give a summary of yesterday's elections, the winners/losers, and what it will mean for the Marcos/Duterte rivalry as well as foreign policy vis a vis China? Much appreciated!
Sorry for the late reply, I've been immerse with the Pakistani and Indian conflict these last few days and need my daily dose of laughter therapy from both Bharat rakshak and Pakistan defense forum, so please forgive me. ;)

Okay the result, I'll just give an example, this incumbent Senator Francisco Tolentino who is a political butterfly and run on the Anti China campaign in the SCS had lost bigtime. It only show's that the SCS issue is not on the forefront of concern among Filipinos and Marcos Duterte debacle is one of the reason for the defeat of the majority of the administration candidate.


About Francisco Tolentino and his campaign strategy after jumping ship from Duterte to Marcos.




He ran as a candidate of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas in the 2025 elections. He was also an administration candidate in 2019, under former president Rodrigo Duterte’s administration slate.

Since the start of the official campaign period, Tolentino had struggled with his preference numbers, often ranking just outside the list of statistically probable winners in various surveys.

Fellow Alyansa bets, especially those who topped preference polls, had doubled down on campaigning for survey laggards like Tolentino in the homestretch of the campaign.

On the campaign trail, Tolentino pitched himself as a candidate who stood against China and its
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. As chairperson of the Senate’s Special Committee on Philippine Maritime and Admiralty Zones, Tolentino spearheaded the passage of the
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twin laws that operationalized the
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.


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2 days ago — Tolentino fashioned himself as a legislator who stood up against China and its bullying in the West Philippine Sea.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Good news. If I remember correctly in 2022 Marcos Jr had a landslide win after campaigning for continuing Duterte's China-friendly policy, so I'm sure the 180 degree reversal must be quite unpopular amongst the general population.

I'm not familiar with the domestic Philippine situation in regards to the economy + local issues and I'm sure they play a part too but overall these results look positive for SE Asia-China relations. The other major ASEAN economies Indonesia/Thailand/Malaysia/Vietnam are already firmly in the pro-China or at the very least neutral camp so if the Philippines also flips then we'll have more or less complete alignment of ASEAN with China.

IMO from China's perspective the ASEAN relationship should be of equal importance to other strategic partnerships like with Russia + Pakistan.
Marcos massive victory is due to the Duterte's not his owned. People saw the Marcos hand in impeaching Sarah, sidelining her from running for the presidency in 2028 if the impeachment process succeed, it's part of his plan of family perpetual rule by changing the constitution that will abolish some provision regarding succession and unlimited term limit.

If you want to know the real score if Sarah run as president instead of being VP of Marcos, just look at the ranking of Bong Go who is a known Duterte confidant compare that to Imee Marcos which barely entered the magic 12.


Senator

PHILIPPINES
Partial, unofficial results aggregated from Comelec data as of May 14, 2025, 5:45 PM and from 97.37% of Election Returns
1st
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26,490,710 Votes


2nd
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20,637,824 Votes


3rd
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20,273,810 Votes


4th
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16,815,945 Votes


5th
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15,088,642 Votes


6th
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14,911,663 Votes


7th
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14,857,254 Votes


8th
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14,596,819 Votes


9th
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14,307,112 Votes


10th
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13,360,444 Votes


11th
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13,121,545 Votes


12th
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13,038,627 Votes


A massive 2 to 1 lead, this is the true sentiment of the people. For me all the political misfortune that befell the Duterte's are due to Sarah Duterte stubbornness, She oppose his father advise about the Marcos and was used by the Trapo (Traditional Politician) like Gloria Macapagal and others for their self interest. Now the father had to step in and help her by letting himself be imprisoned in the Hague to galvanized their base, I hope his sacrifice will ignite her fierceness that catapult her to National position.
 
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The Observer

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Not gonna happen. The one who pushed for the acquisition is the current president, and the one who approved it is the former president, whose son is now the VP. They'll sweep it under the rug in no time.

Indonesia also has no AWACS, no special mission sensor aircraft, pretty much no force multiplier or kill chain enabler really. So it doesn't really matter either way.

Any conflict against neighbouring countries will either be the equivalent of 2 kids quarelling, or if they have AWACS they'll wipe the floor with ID air force.
 
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