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zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
We are in a very similar situation again now, with everyone broadly agreeing that the US is in terminal decline, but no one is able to say when and how the tipping point is reached.

My personal theory is that the US government will initiate a hot war against China once they see that tipping point in the rear view mirror and know that the collapse is imminent. Because unlike 2008, China will not bail them out, and at that stage, a massive hot war will basically be the only card the US government has left to play to avoid the total collapse of their entire financial system.
I really hope you're wrong, but my gut tells me you're most likely right.

China also expects this, which is why they are actually preparing for the coming war.
The massive build up of ICBM missile silos in China indeed points to this.
 

Santamaria

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yeah, the worse the US is doing, and the better China is doing is not decreasing the chance of a hot war, but accelerating it.

Many people don't accept that because they think that it is too "unrealistic", but nothing is too unlikely in this world.

The better China is doing relatively to them (like now), the more they are going to accelerate the war synthesis (shown empirically),

When China had 10% of today's economic power and the US was the world policeman the war wasn't even in the picture.

Also, their elites and "intellectuals" are still living in that fairy tale land when the US is still the same country demographically that it was in WW2 when the war actually benefited them in the end in terms of industrial productivity growth, middle-class growth, innovation, social and political unity, and general prosperity.

They don't realize that the current young bartenders and influencers can't even fathom working in factories or studying engineering.

Also, they don't realize that the racial and ethnic makeup was very different, political and social polarization is much stronger, and 50% of people think that a civil war is likely in the next few years, patriotism, religion, morality, are at all times low, crime and hatred at highs.

So, not only would a hot war against China get them out of their general decline, but it would directly lead to civil unrest at home leading to the premature collapse by 5-10 years.

But, at this point, if you are a US elite decision-maker, I guess it still makes sense for you to at least try getting out of this with a bang.

I guess "you miss 100% shots you don't take", if you are some US oligarch, you would at least try to preserve your future in this way.
As a westener who know many executives and people in relatively high positions (that have studied in the typical top business schools and so on), I can say that you would be shocked by the extension of the blindness that permeates both anglosaxon and western european elites.

They really think they (we) have some kind of societal and technological advance that cannot be match for countries with "emperors" (like China or Russia).

When you try to point that both Russia and China have factual advantage in STEM graduates, both in numbers and in quality (winning more international Olympics and so on) they resort to the argument of the "emperor" and our society being more open and bla bla bla.

And if you try to point that western society is not open anymore, that there is censorship of ideas, they catalog you as extremist and don't listen you anymore.

Any fact you throw at them is disdained and ignored.
They dont learn from mistakes.

Just think that they are people who threw everything they had to Russia, failed, and still think they can force China into economical submission.

They will for sure go to the war against China, they will fail catastrophically and only thing we can hope is that they don't use nukes and initiate a nuclear war.

The problem is that the full anglosaxon, french and german speaking elite is very far away from reality. It is not one political party or other. Is 99% of people in high positions that studied in certain universities and so on.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
When you try to point that both Russia and China have factual advantage in STEM graduates, both in numbers and in quality (winning more international Olympics and so on) they resort to the argument of the "emperor" and our society being more open and bla bla bla.

And if you try to point that western society is not open anymore, that there is censorship of ideas, they catalog you as extremist and don't listen you anymore.

Any fact you throw at them is disdained and ignored.
They dont learn from mistakes.


This actually has to be one of the biggest bullshit "arguments" I often hear about from delusional Westoids that I never understood in the slightest, even though there are many of them.

Like wtf, can someone explain or prove the correlation between some Fat Joe being allowed to type something stupid on Reddit, or make a YouTube video, and with actual innovation level of an entire country?

What does that even mean? I mean "open flow of ideas" and other bullshit. Are they in some kind of a cartoon or video game?

Do they really think that some scientists or entrepreneurs, in China and Russia, discovering some revolutionary product won't be able to act upon it to monetize and benefit their countries, like wtf?

In fact, why would they be "voicing it openly with free speech" at all, allowing for others to steal their idea, instead of rushing to to fill some kind of a legal patent first (
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)?

Where in the whole process does innovation have anything to do with "free speech"? This is literally the clearest non-factor even possible.

I can't even begin to understand this from my perspective logically. In fact it would make more sense to make an argument that societies like the Chinese innovate better simply because they are more efficient.

They don't have 10 levels of governing and procedural bullishit they have to cross to adopt some new technology, elections every two years, and they have coherent policies for innovations that could span decades.

Also more leadership unity, continuity, and a better fusion between the government, local governments, companies, universities, for R&D, etc, for collaboration and innovation, that their system allows them to have.

This level of cohesion isn't possible in inefficient liberal democracies. They simply aren't fast enough for such an exponentially changing world of today. They are like an "analog", obsolete system nowadays.

This is not even factoring that from an individual cognitive level, in order to think of something new, you first need to learn as much as possible in order to find some kind of a unique connection with an edge that everyone didn't think was possible before, which Chinese educational system is perfect for that because they simply learn more.

You also need to introduce it to the real world, and that's when mathematics, science, engineering that China is the boss of comes into play.
 
Last edited:

didklmyself

Junior Member
Registered Member
This actually has to be one of the biggest bullshit "arguments" I often hear about from delusional Westoids that I never understood in the slightest, even though there are many of them.

Like wtf, can someone explain or prove the correlation between some Fat Joe being allowed to type something stupid on Reddit, or make a YouTube video, and with actual innovation level of an entire country?

What does that even mean? I mean "open flow of ideas" and other bullshit. Are they in some kind of a cartoon or video game?

Do they really think that some scientists or entrepreneurs, in China and Russia, discovering some revolutionary product won't be able to act upon it to monetize and benefit their countries, like wtf?

In fact, why would they be "voicing it openly with free speech" at all, allowing for others to steal their idea, instead of rushing to to fill some kind of a legal patent first (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
)?

Where in the whole process does innovation have anything to do with "free speech"? This is literally the clearest non-factor even possible.

I can't even begin to understand this from my perspective logically. In fact it would make more sense to make an argument that societies like the Chinese innovate better simply because they are more efficient.

They don't have 10 levels of governing and procedural bullishit they have to cross to adopt some new technology, elections every two years, and they have coherent policies for innovations that could span decades.

Also more leadership unity, continuity, and a better fusion between the government, local governments, companies, universities, for R&D, etc, for collaboration and innovation, that their system allows them to have.

This level of cohesion isn't possible in inefficient liberal democracies. They simply aren't fast enough for such an exponentially changing world of today. They are like an "analog", obsolete system nowadays.

This is not even factoring that from an individual cognitive level, in order to think of something new, you first need to learn as much as possible in order to find some kind of a unique connection with an edge that everyone didn't think was possible before, which Chinese educational system is perfect for that because they simply learn more.

You also need to introduce it to the real world, and that's when mathematics, science, engineering that China is the boss of comes into play.
The key to innovation is patience. Govts' with low time preference like China have that... democracies particularly modern ones have high time preferences, they want to maximize in the shortest time possible and this is dangerous. The west has forgotten their history, the vision of the leaders that turned them into what they are today.
Now they have turned into fanatics. Dogmatic, ideological convictions kill societies.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
This actually has to be one of the biggest bullshit "arguments" I often hear about from delusional Westoids that I never understood in the slightest, even though there are many of them.

Like wtf, can someone explain or prove the correlation between some Fat Joe being allowed to type something stupid on Reddit, or make a YouTube video, and with actual innovation level of an entire country?

What does that even mean? I mean "open flow of ideas" and other bullshit. Are they in some kind of a cartoon or video game?
What it really means is a western version of "
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". You don't follow Rites of Zhou than you are a barbarian. Of course as Zhou Dynasty history tells us if you use such an system to keep geopolitical challengers down for too long eventually one of them is going to stand up and proclaim 我蛮夷也/I am barbarian and upend the whole system.

So don't think of "open society" as some sort of standard that China may be able to reach by reform, that's not what it's actually about. It's actually just "Rites of Zhou" designed to keep any other challengers down.
 

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
The truth about the auto industry in UK in the past and in the US currently:

American McGee, lol this is what he's up to now? An “American” in China!

FYI: “American” is his actual name, if you are old enough he was the creator of the 2000’s vintage “American McGee’s Alice”.

View attachment 129467
View attachment 129468
No more Iraqi grey import coke, COFCO Group says fuck your sanctions. They didn't even bother to change the packaging.

Coke is for Jews, Pepsi is for Arabs
There is an Iraqi kebab shop nearby me that only stocks Baghdad Pepsi, no Coke


By the transitive property, simply yes

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Santamaria

Junior Member
Registered Member
This actually has to be one of the biggest bullshit "arguments" I often hear about from delusional Westoids that I never understood in the slightest, even though there are many of them.

Like wtf, can someone explain or prove the correlation between some Fat Joe being allowed to type something stupid on Reddit, or make a YouTube video, and with actual innovation level of an entire country?

What does that even mean? I mean "open flow of ideas" and other bullshit. Are they in some kind of a cartoon or video game?

Do they really think that some scientists or entrepreneurs, in China and Russia, discovering some revolutionary product won't be able to act upon it to monetize and benefit their countries, like wtf?

In fact, why would they be "voicing it openly with free speech" at all, allowing for others to steal their idea, instead of rushing to to fill some kind of a legal patent first (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
)?

Where in the whole process does innovation have anything to do with "free speech"? This is literally the clearest non-factor even possible.

I can't even begin to understand this from my perspective logically. In fact it would make more sense to make an argument that societies like the Chinese innovate better simply because they are more efficient.

They don't have 10 levels of governing and procedural bullishit they have to cross to adopt some new technology, elections every two years, and they have coherent policies for innovations that could span decades.

Also more leadership unity, continuity, and a better fusion between the government, local governments, companies, universities, for R&D, etc, for collaboration and innovation, that their system allows them to have.

This level of cohesion isn't possible in inefficient liberal democracies. They simply aren't fast enough for such an exponentially changing world of today. They are like an "analog", obsolete system nowadays.

This is not even factoring that from an individual cognitive level, in order to think of something new, you first need to learn as much as possible in order to find some kind of a unique connection with an edge that everyone didn't think was possible before, which Chinese educational system is perfect for that because they simply learn more.

You also need to introduce it to the real world, and that's when mathematics, science, engineering that China is the boss of comes into play.
I think in their mind they portrait China or Russia as a kind of Mordor, where only Sauron is deciding everything.

They think that Xi or Putin (or any low level boss) will not accept any argument he does not like because there is not free speech, and he will feel threatened.
On the other hand, the self confident westener presidents, CEOs and managers are able to withstand criticism and new ideas.

That is the level of their delusion.

In reality is totally the opposite, typical westener leader is full of insecurities about his position, he is not able to receive new ideas that are a challenge for his owns.

The liberal democracies (that are not democracies at all) are stagnant and fanatical.

In the West, in a political environment or in a company you simply cannot express many ideas. Do it and you receive immediate censorship. People learn to shut up and just go on with the craze.

The western system is the system where you have free speech to say idiocies (like terraplanism) and absolute 0 free speech to discuss strategic and important things.

As you told, it is factual that China produces more patents, inventions and development that full West combined.
I mean you just need to go to China and see. But when a westener goes to China, instead of wonder about the trains, metro, buildigns and so on, he complains that it does not look "traditional chinese" and that is not as interest and some random poor country full of shacks close to the sea like Thailand or whatever
Even when you look at Russia a westener should wake up to the level of things they are able to develop on a perpetual stage of sanctions and isolationism against them.
Like you have germans laughing of the russians while Moscow has robot deliveries and Berlin has...?
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Noticing some articles like this one above, with more and more extreme examples recently, I was encouraged to research more about this topic and found this new comprehensive data from Pew about a month old.


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To be honest, they made a point for crime across various categories going down but unintentionally revealed it is happening but not for a good reason.

The political and social perceptions of crime have massively gone up over the years, so how could it be going down like they describe?

So, something is not right. Basically, what I think is happening from this data, police clearance (solving) of crimes is going down so people do not feel safe to report so much as before, that's also why the perception is going up, but the reported crime rates going down.

However, even if it was true that crime was actually going down, it would still be much closer to some third-world countries than China for example.

And that is despite it having nearly a double rate of various police personnel per 100k people than China. And many higher expenditures in general.


It found that in 2022, only 41.5% of violent crimes and 31.8% of household property crimes were reported to authorities. BJS notes that there are many reasons why crime might not be reported, including fear of reprisal or of “getting the offender in trouble,” a feeling that police “would not or could not do anything to help,” or a belief that the crime is “a personal issue or too trivial to report.”

Most of the crimes that are reported to police, meanwhile,
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, at least based on an FBI measure known as the
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.


SR_24.04.23_crime_1.png



SR_24.04.23_crime_4.png


SR_24.04.23_crime_5.png


SR_24.04.23_crime_6.png



SR_24.04.23_crime_7.png
 
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