Crisis in the Ukraine

Red Moon said:

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For Russia, splitting the Ukraine in half would be 95% bad news. The rump of Ukraine would be permanently hostile and NATO's bases would be extended into its territory. Meanwhile, the EU would be forced to accommodate the new sick child, and Germany would have to contend with yet another opponent of cooperation with Russia, perhaps within the EU.

The only benefit for Russia in this scenario would be partial and short term: those military industries in Zaporozhia, etc would be kept from NATO's hands.

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Jura said:

I wonder what in your opinion could NATO possibly get from companies like

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(I think this one is the biggest in the area you probably meant) ... I'm asking because about one or two months ago I read at gazeta.ru "the Russian perspective" of a serious problem which is the Ukrainian export of military gadgets to Russia; the article said that while several important Russian military projects would be seriously hampered without an access to the imported parts (the substitute production in Russia is planned but delayed -- the article said), the Ukrainian production cannot be sold anywhere else in the world as it's pretty specific to fit into the Russian weaponry (I recall the article mentioned helicopter engines -- you can hardly sell an engine for the newest model of a helicopter which you don't have ... but I'm just asking, maybe you know the specifics of Ukrainian "defense" industry or something

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Red Moon said:

I only know what I've learned here .

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Red Moon said:

It's not that anybody else can use it (save China), but that Russia can be further "sanctioned" if a hostile party controls these plants, particularly someone who doesn't care about the economy of the region.

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pla101prc said:

col cossad's map looks different from what i saw on militarymap.info i guess you can say this one is relatively more conservative in its estimates. nevertheless, both depicts a catastrophic scenario for ukr army.

i have no doubt that even if the amrovsiika cauldron was legit and it ends up being liquidated ukraine will still be able to bounce back. but in conjuction with the potential loss of mariupol, i think this will raise questions about the futility of continuing this war. the government will no doubt come under increasing scrutiny on how the war is actually going. and that, in turn, will fulfill the premise of a political settlement i have alluded to earlier. when the public sees no end to the suffering, the government is in trouble.

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Equation said:

Sorry but I think the Rebels are losing according to that map. Every time I look at the Col. Cossad's Sitrep Map those white areas of Rebel strong hold are getting smaller and smaller.

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Equation said:

Sorry but I think the Rebels are losing according to that map. Every time I look at the Col. Cossad's Sitrep Map those white areas of Rebel strong hold are getting smaller and smaller.

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Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War said:

Article 3

In the case of armed conflict not of an international character occurring in the territory of one of the High Contracting Parties, each party to the conflict shall be bound to apply, as a minimum, the following provisions:

1. Persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, colour, religion or faith, sex, birth or wealth, or any other similar criteria.

To this end the following acts are and shall remain prohibited at any time and in any place whatsoever with respect to the above-mentioned persons:

(a) Violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture;

(b) Taking of hostages;

(c) Outrages upon personal dignity, in particular, humiliating and degrading treatment;

(d) The passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without previous judgment pronounced by a regularly constituted court affording all the judicial guarantees which are recognized as indispensable by civilized peoples.

2. The wounded and sick shall be collected and cared for.

An impartial humanitarian body, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, may offer its services to the Parties to the conflict.

The Parties to the conflict should further endeavour to bring into force, by means of special agreements, all or part of the other provisions of the present Convention.

The application of the preceding provisions shall not affect the legal status of the Parties to the conflict.

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Red Moon said:

The notionally "rebel held" areas are pink, not white.

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pla101prc said:

lol you lookin at the same map as me bro? rebel strongholds are labeled in pink on col cossad's map.

anyways i used to follow bbc's map just last week, thinking the war is going well for Ukraine. til information starts to come out that made me question the legitimacy of that map. after lookin around i find col cossad's map to be one of those that i can trust. though i think it is a lil too optimistic for the rebels, still way better than bbc's map though.

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