1. Indeed, the situation for the junta became aggravated In the area of Novoazovsk and Mariupol. The militia forces that penetrated from the north and also those which crossed the border with the Russian Federation created an operational crisis in the area of Novoazovsk, which in itself implies a threat to Mariupol. The panic on the web resources of the junta is has certain basis. As we mentioned earlier, there are very few combat-capable units there, a hodgepodge of police, punitive troops, border guards and air defense personnel, clearly not something you can repel a serious militia offensive with.
For now the junta is saved by the fact that the militia forces here are not so large and they are not achieving decisive results yet, although the threat has already become more than serious. The thing is that by taking advantage of the advance of the reconnaissance and sabotage group of the militia to the south of the captured "Uspenka" checkpoint, the rebels also advanced through the border with Russia that was cleared from the junta, creating a local superiority in forces on a location that is critical for the junta. This is so to say the flip side of the junta decision to stop fighting for the border due to large-scale shelling of the junta positions near the border by the militia and "from the territory of the Russian Federation". Currently the junta faces a very unpleasant prospect - either it has to urgently find reserves for the new front that suddenly opened up or else it risks losing Novoazovsk and may face a real threat of losing of Mariupol. In general, this is a strike that is very unpleasant for the junta that complicates problems to the south of Donetsk.
2. The gap in the front south of Amvrosiyevka, which the junta recklessly didn't plug for a few days, paid off as expected. Not only is it that the militia used the gap to advance to Uspenka and Novoazovsk and created a threat for Mariupol. The junta military that were drawn into the battle for Ilovajsk spent their reserves, which resulted in a militia advance on their own communications and the threat of militia capturing Amvrosiyevka. A cauldron of its own kind emerged, which is already the 3rd in the south, although this one is more of a partial cauldron, because the militia intercepted a number of roadways to the south of the main forces of the group, but there's no speaking yet about a complete cutting of all communications because the militia actually wrap a larger force with a smaller one. In the next few days the junta will try to liquidate this intolerable for them situation, but if they fails to do this, then the first 2 southern cauldrons will be chump change compared to this one.
3. The cauldron under Dyakovo is still not eliminated, the encircled ones were given the standard terms, their leadership refuses to accept them for now. But overall, the elimination of the cauldron is just a matter of time and losses. Of course I would prefer the militia to get the materiel.
In general, what is happening is indeed a counter-offensive, albeit with insufficient forces. However, the blow was dealt at the time when the junta just suffered a defeat of its offensive on Donetsk and this strike immediately triggered a serious operational crisis for the junta. The very nature of the events in the Donbas is changing and now the argument is starting to shift from whether Novorossia will survive to what consequences will there be for the junta defeat in Donbass. Including the question of borders, from which the negotiations will begin. Perhaps, the first overtures will happen tomorrow in Minsk.
