Chinese UAV/UCAV development

Deino said:

Since the mock up was shown, there are several links posting also this image below which is AFAIK an old PS-job only ... however I cannot find the original one!

Can anyone help?

Deino

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Bltizo said:

It's certainly unusual, but not necessarily suspicious.


When the Dark Sword first appeared some ten years or so ago, it was definitely a curious thing. Lots of us suspected if it was just a concept, a paper plane.

The fact that it then disappeared for so long without any photos or rumours about it being in development is not necessarily suspicious -- it could just mean SAC decided to pursue it internally in a subdued or even clandestine manner. Perhaps the PLA had even picked up on it and decided to do feasibility studies and further R&D into the concept, knowing that it would likely be many years until such a project reached any fruition that would present any kind of viable operational capability. It would be quite reasonable for the concept to go "missing" if that was the case.


Having the concept reappear in the form of a full size mock up -- well, that isn't suspicious either. Certainly unusual and a surprise, but not suspicious. If they have been doing R&D into the concept, the ducks might be lined up in a good enough row that the project might be moving to a next stage, and the mock up could be related to that. Overall, disappearing for ten years and then reappearing isn't too much of an issue.

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If the UCAV was funded by the PLA it won't be appearing in an airshow.

If development continued, it could be doing so by private funds.

As for "unaccepted PLA projects shown at airshows" -- well, not sort of, but not really.

Yilong/pterodactyl/GJ-1 was first shown at Zhuhai before it entered service with the PLA.
Models of the first prototype of Soaring Dragon UAV, as well as the 611 CAC global hawk like drone, were both shown at airshows before emerging in real forms.
We had small scale models of both Sharp Sword UCAV and FC-31 ("F-60") at one of those UAV tournaments around 2011 or 2012, be shown off, before both of those eventually made debuts in full size forms.

So IMO there are certainly some products at airshows and expos which are reflective of PLA rejection. But there are also some projects and concepts that may actually end up being developed and pursued and eventually enter PLA service.
Certainly, quite a few of the UAV concepts and projects shown from 2006-2010 seemed to have emerged from plastic into full sized flying platforms, some of which are in service in some form.


It's not stretching the imagination too much to argue that it would be reasonable for Dark Sword to have followed a similar trend, but over a longer term.

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Wing Loong had to prove itself live or in the export market and in the service of export customers before it was considered by the PLAAF. It was a roundabout means to doing it. Other weapons systems maybe trying to do the same, ranging from ships to vehicles. Its a risk that these companies have to take, financing the program as a private venture and hopes the PLA will buy into it. You do have this risk that the project won't be accepted and investment not returned.

This may come about due to the technological conservatism of the PLA brass who grew up on the core idea of the People's liberating power as the transformation power of the world, emphasis on the People. Then suddenly you have this technology that is displacing the People. More than a challenge its a disruption of religion.

What Dark Sword feels to me was that the project was canceled, perhaps around 2009 to 2011 as the J-20 began to show promise and the budget diverted there. Then when the UAV market is taking off, and the PLAAF has changed their minds about the issue, more liberal thinking towards UAVs, it was time to resurrect the concept.

Because funds comes as a finite resource, defense industry, along with their champions in the military, tend to be divided into factions that support one weapons system over the other. A good time of this was during the Carter Administration when you have the B-2 vs. B-1B vs. the B-52 upgraded with Tomahawks. Today, those who advocate for flight manned weapons systems might see UAVs as a threat to their jobs, and more than that, perhaps an abomination. I would expect much resistance within the PLAAF brass and ranks on UAVs. Given this, and so much going on with the energies and focus on the PLAAF acquisition and integration of new weapons systems --- J-20, J-16, J-11D, J-10C and so on --- one can expect a natural resistance to this technological disruption. The best route might be to develop it privately or maybe to get people with clout from the Party to get involved and fund the project, then try to change PLA minds by showing its feasibility and promise.

This may also be an indication that the technological capabilities of the Chinese defense industry is outgrowing the PLA.


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Forgot to add the link to the original picture in the previous post before it was PS'ed.

Tam said:

If the UCAV was funded by the PLA it won't be appearing in an airshow.

If development continued, it could be doing so by private funds.

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We've had many UAV models be shown at air shows or expos that ended up progressing into actual aircraft, some of which in turn entered PLA service.

Whether they were intended for PLA service at the outset is another matter, but the key point to take away, IMO, is that having a presence at an air show or expo does not mean a project is necessarily only export oriented, nor does it mean that it cannot be acquired by the PLA later.

Wing Loong had to prove itself live or in the export market and in the service of export customers before it was considered by the PLAAF. It was a roundabout means to doing it. Other weapons systems maybe trying to do the same, ranging from ships to vehicles. Its a risk that these companies have to take, financing the program as a private venture and hopes the PLA will buy into it. You do have this risk that the project won't be accepted and investment not returned.

This may come about due to the technological conservatism of the PLA brass who grew up on the core idea of the People's liberating power as the transformation power of the world, emphasis on the People. Then suddenly you have this technology that is displacing the People. More than a challenge its a disruption of religion.

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I don't necessarily disagree with this, but it's rather tangential to what I was asserting.

What Dark Sword feels to me was that the project was canceled, perhaps around 2009 to 2011 as the J-20 began to show promise and the budget diverted there. Then when the UAV market is taking off, and the PLAAF has changed their minds about the issue, more liberal thinking towards UAVs, it was time to resurrect the concept.

Because funds comes as a finite resource, defense industry, along with their champions in the military, tend to be divided into factions that support one weapons system over the other. A good time of this was during the Carter Administration when you have the B-2 vs. B-1B vs. the B-52 upgraded with Tomahawks. Today, those who advocate for flight manned weapons systems might see UAVs as a threat to their jobs, and more than that, perhaps an abomination. I would expect much resistance within the PLAAF brass and ranks on UAVs. Given this, and so much going on with the energies and focus on the PLAAF acquisition and integration of new weapons systems --- J-20, J-16, J-11D, J-10C and so on --- one can expect a natural resistance to this technological disruption. The best route might be to develop it privately or maybe to get people with clout from the Party to get involved and fund the project, then try to change PLA minds by showing its feasibility and promise.

This may also be an indication that the technological capabilities of the Chinese defense industry is outgrowing the PLA.

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Again, I don't necessarily disagree with this.

My key point, is that Dark Sword being shown at an air show and then disappearing for a number of years is not suspicious, and that simply having a presence at an air show does not mean that such a concept cannot be developed further and/or eventually enter service with the PLA in some form.

Exhibitions, especially those in China, are often a valuable means to allow companies to show their wears to the PLA directly.

It’s only when things are sent to foreign trade shows that you know the PLA has not yet picked it up, since that would signify the company is seriously shopping for export orders.

plawolf said:

Exhibitions, especially those in China, are often a valuable means to allow companies to show their wears to the PLA directly.

It’s only when things are sent to foreign trade shows that you know the PLA has not yet picked it up, since that would signify the company is seriously shopping for export orders.

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I wouldn't take that as a rule -- for example, Dark Sword actually made an appearance as a model at the Paris Air Show in 2007 as well.

Just to be clear, what air show did the Dark Sword first appear --- the Paris Air Show of 2007.

My key point, is that Dark Sword being shown at an air show and then disappearing for a number of years is not suspicious, and that simply having a presence at an air show does not mean that such a concept cannot be developed further and/or eventually enter service with the PLA in some form.

#2963

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Disappearing, literally not heard again, and based on the "rumor mill", cancelled.

This sounds like to me, the project is suddenly being resurrected, with a new staff behind it.

Any number of reasons could explain why it was shown and seemingly developed from the model concept phase until at least justification enough for a full-scale mockup. It's fruitless to dive down each rabbit hole. I think everyone expects the next generation of UCAVs to be surfacing (in prototype or testing phases) in the coming years. This is but one well known Chinese concept. No evidence so far indicates any information beyond what some leakers are suggesting and this photograph. Given the above, it's still impossible to really know what the PLAAF plans for this if anything so we'll have to wait for more leaks to come out.

First known public appearance was back in 2007 in Paris Airshow. Something that fulfills the ambitions of such a UCAV will require software that was far beyond the technical abilities of 2007, let alone those of China's in 2007. They could have shifted the requirements and resurrected the frame for a slightly different application today. It's appearance in a foreign airshow indicates nothing since this was a total paper project back then and revealing the proposed frame gives away nothing. It does not mean PLAAF has rejected it etc. Whatever their decisions, it would have changed from those that existed more than 10 years ago.

Tam said:

Just to be clear, what air show did the Dark Sword first appear --- the Paris Air Show of 2007.

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2006 Zhuhai was its first appearance I think.

Disappearing, literally not heard again, and based on the "rumor mill", cancelled.

This sounds like to me, the project is suddenly being resurrected, with a new staff behind it.

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Did we ever get credible rumours that it was being developed in the first place?

To my memory, the situation was one where no one really know whether Dark Sword was being pursued or not, and between 2006 to about 2010 it kind of just hung around without any major indications as to what it was there for, occasionally making model appearances at an airshow or an expo or something.

And then it stopped making any appearances at all, but still no rumours from what I recall.

Then after radio silence for about seven or eight years, we get the new photo of the mock up from yesterday.



So.... is it a cancelled project getting resurrected, or a long term ongoing project that is starting to break cover? Who knows. Both are equally plausible.

Bltizo said:

2006 Zhuhai was its first appearance I think.





Did we ever get credible rumours that it was being developed in the first place?

To my memory, the situation was one where no one really know whether Dark Sword was being pursued or not, and between 2006 to about 2010 it kind of just hung around without any major indications as to what it was there for, occasionally making model appearances at an airshow or an expo or something.

And then it stopped making any appearances at all, but still no rumours from what I recall.

Then after radio silence for about seven or eight years, we get the new photo of the mock up from yesterday.



So.... is it a cancelled project getting resurrected, or a long term ongoing project that is starting to break cover? Who knows. Both are equally plausible.

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If according to "fr6", then the Anjian project is shelved by SAC, and there is a new project called MY. This time, Hongdu are the ones taking charge of it.

Tam said:

If according to "fr6", then the Anjian project is shelved by SAC, and there is a new project called MY. This time, Hongdu are the ones taking charge of it.

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That may or may not be true, fr6 is a new name I'm not familiar with.

But we've been talking about trying to derive what Dark Sword may have been up to since the model first appeared and when it disappeared. My point, is that based from that, they could have been working on it the whole time in some form, in a subdued or clandestine way.