Chinese Economics Thread
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Jura The idiot
General
ooh la la
in the meantime I checked the link you posted Today at 6:50 PM
which led me to
(82.7122e12*0.47353-74.3585e12*0.46219)/1e8
- 82.7122e12 is 2017 GDP in Yuan according to
- 0.47353 is "Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)" I can see for 2017 at
- 74.3585e12 is 2016 GDP in Yuan according to
- 0.46219 is "Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)" I can see for 2017 at
- division by 1e8 converts to CNY HML
your comment?
Jura The idiot
General
so,
(as in
"9%-(debt growth 4.4%)+(saving growth negative saving growth -)"
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM)
is 24066-52440+47990 = 19616 CNY HML
not exactly
"= close to 0 income growth"
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
or is it? I still didn't get your point
your move,
Anlsvrthng
- consumer spending increase between 2016 and 2017
24066 CNY HML
#9730 - household debt growth between 2016 and 2017
52440 CNY HML
#9737 - gross domestic savings growth between 2016 and 2017
47990 CNY HML
14 minutes ago
(as in
"9%-(debt growth 4.4%)+(saving growth negative saving growth -)"
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM)
is 24066-52440+47990 = 19616 CNY HML
not exactly
"= close to 0 income growth"
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
or is it? I still didn't get your point
your move,
Anlsvrthng
You haven't calculated the net change in disposable income.
The last, saving rate, you calculated the full value, not the CHANGE FROM YEAR TO YEAR.
Year 0 -> +100 income, -20 saving, +10 new debt =90 spending
Year 1 -> +95 income , -15 saving , +15 new debt =95 spending
Inverse :
Year 0 - >+90 spending,, -20 saving, +10 new debt=100 income
Year 1 -> +95 spending, -15 saving , +15 new debt =95 income
Another interesting data, the interest on bank saving is less than half % in China, the loans must be over 4%.
Now, it means that if the bank deposits are 80% of GDP, and debt is around 50% then the consumers spending 5 times more money for debt servicing than they receive from deposits.
And additionally the most wealthy has high saving rate, the middle / low income taking debt.
Jura The idiot
General
How you get gross domestic savings growth between 2016 and 2017 >>>>47990<<<< CNY HML ?
The only source that I found shown 1% for all Chiense saving growth ( including consumer, business ).
The number that you claim is roughly 6% of Chinese GDP.
My calculation was 8 440 CNY HML, based on sources.
Jura The idiot
General
using the link you posted Today at 6:50 PM
plus
:
(82.7122e12*0.47353-74.3585e12*0.46219)/1e8
- 82.7122e12 is 2017 GDP in Yuan according to
- 0.47353 is "Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)" I can see for 2017 at
- 74.3585e12 is 2016 GDP in Yuan according to
- 0.46219 is "Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)" I can see for 2016 at
- division by 1e8 converts to CNY HML
IT can be calculated like this, but in this case the debt data is not compatible any more with the saving data.
You calculated with the 17GDP*17saving-16GDP*16saving, but the debt was calculated like (debt change from 16 to 17) * 17GDP.
To have compatible debt number it needs to be calculated like 17GDP*17debt-16GDP*16debt.
(82.7122e12*0.444-74.3585e12*0.388)/1e8=8.8731*1e4=88 731
(it is more precise way to calculate , but more time consuming as well)
Jura The idiot
General
does it mean you no longer agree with
#9737
(note that pretty straightforward chart, provided by you, quoted inside)?I see now:
ballparking, in billion $, (4970-4210);
$760b was let's say 5244b Yuan, so something like
52440 CNY HML
would be your second term in the model from
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
please either confirm or say an alternative value
really? after you referred to it with
"agree"
#9738 Anlsvrthng, Yesterday at 1:24 PM
The savings calculation on its own is correct.
But if you calculate the saving rate like this then the debt side has to be calculated like this.
Anyway, the discrepancy doesn't pass the common sense test as well.
IF the debt increase by 4% to GDP, and saving increase by 1% to GDP then the numerical YUAN calculation result can not show saving > debt.
(C'mon , this slow calculation going over hours/days already painfully slooooooow for me , and It is hard to switch on and off my concentration in every odd hours)