Chinese Economics Thread

now I read
China unveils special individual income tax deductions
Xinhua| 2018-12-22 22:30:05
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The State Council, China's cabinet, announced special individual income tax deductions on Saturday, in order to lower the tax burden for those who have certain expenditures.

Those expenditures cover six areas, including children's education, continuing education, health treatment for serious diseases, housing loan interests, rent and elderly care.

The new temporary measures will come into effect along with the amended personal individual income tax law on Jan. 1, 2019.

For children's education, an amount of 1,000 yuan (about 145 U.S. dollars) will be deducted every month from the parents' taxable income for each child's education from preschool all the way to doctoral education, including technical education.

Taxpayers who are receiving continuing education can also enjoy the deduction of 400 yuan a month for 48 months at most for a degree or 3,600 yuan in total for professional qualifications education.

Taxpayers with serious diseases will have their amount of out-of-pocket medical costs (between 15,000 yuan and 80,000 yuan) deducted from their taxable income each year.

Taxpayers or their spouses who have mortgage loans for a first home can have a deduction of 1,000 yuan per month from taxable income.

Housing rent deduction of up to 18,000 yuan each year will be granted to taxpayers owning no housing in the city where they work.

An amount of up to 2,000 yuan every month will be deducted from an only-child taxpayer's taxable income for his or her parent who is over 60. Those who have siblings can share the 2,000-yuan deduction quota.

China started implementing a new standard for individual income tax from October. The threshold for personal income tax exemption was raised from 3,500 yuan to 5,000 yuan per month or 60,000 yuan per year.

An ordinary Beijing taxpayer with a pre-tax income of 20,000 yuan, who is an only child, has one kid who goes to school and parents who are above 60, rents a home and studies for a master's degree on the job, can enjoy four special deductions starting from next year.

The income tax will be about 800 yuan, nearly 75 percent lower than the amount of over 3,100 yuan before October.

The expenditure range is so wide that most of taxpayers are eligible for one or several tax deductions, experts said.

However, as the deduction policy covers so many areas and involves complicated scenarios, new challenges facing tax collection and management will appear, which requires better social governance, said Tang Jiqiang, a professor at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
LOL I wondered if you'd stop blending GDP with household data just like that

so it's my understanding
"9%" Thursday at 8:19 AM
doesn't come from the sum of
"Inflation : 2.5% , GDP growth 6.5%" Thursday at 8:19 AM
C'mon, if the gross GDP growth is the same as the consumption growth then the consumption as share of GDP doesn't grow.
but the first term in your model "is actually the consumer spending growth" Today at 5:21 PM
and while you say it's
"8.2% , but without inflation adjustment"
I now didn't find that figure in the links you provided:

please provide the source to your "8.2%" (or show how you arrived at it) so that we can proceed

Consumer Spending in China increased to 317509.70 CNY HML in 2017 from 293443.10 CNY HML in 2016. Consumer Spending in China averaged 44346.19 CNY HML from 1952 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 317509.70 CNY HML in 2017 and a record low of 453 CNY HML in 1952.

317509/293443=1.082>>8.2%

 
C'mon, if the gross GDP growth is the same as the consumption growth then the consumption as share of GDP doesn't grow.
please skip diversion attempts LOL

this conversation is about scrutinizing your model
from
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
Consumer spending = income-saving+loans ______Agree?

Saving rate falling , consumer debt increasing YOY 4.somtehing% ._______Agree?
Inflation : 2.5% , GDP growth 6.5% __ __Agree?
Spending growth-loans growth+saving growth = income growth(decrease)____Agree?
9%-(debt growth 4.4%)+(saving growth negative saving growth -)= close to 0 income growth _____Agree? ->this is the critical part.

Have you ever had to solve process/machine/material/quality/business problems using statistical tools ever?
which you modified in
#9720 Anlsvrthng, Today at 5:21 PM
Sorry, my bad .

9% is actually the consumer spending growth ...

now, what's the link to:
Consumer Spending in China increased to 317509.70 CNY HML in 2017 from 293443.10 CNY HML in 2016. Consumer Spending in China averaged 44346.19 CNY HML from 1952 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 317509.70 CNY HML in 2017 and a record low of 453 CNY HML in 1952.
?

317509/293443=1.082>>8.2%
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
please skip diversion attempts LOL

this conversation is about scrutinizing your model
from
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
which you modified in
#9720 Anlsvrthng, Today at 5:21 PM


now, what's the link to:
?
If I overestimate the consumer spending, and underestimate the other parameters then the picture can be better than in reality.

Usually I go into detailed calculations if the worst/best scenario (for calculation errors )showing drastically different picture. ( I'not talking about forums, I talk about real life)
 
If I overestimate the consumer spending, and underestimate the other parameters then the picture can be better than in reality.

Usually I go into detailed calculations if the worst/best scenario (for calculation errors )showing drastically different picture. ( I'not talking about forums, I talk about real life)
Anlsvrthng
I asked you for the link 15 minutes ago

"now, what's the link to:
Anlsvrthng said:
Consumer Spending in China increased to 317509.70 CNY HML in 2017 from 293443.10 CNY HML in 2016. Consumer Spending in China averaged 44346.19 CNY HML from 1952 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 317509.70 CNY HML in 2017 and a record low of 453 CNY HML in 1952.
?"

first I need to see your sources before I might check your reasoning; do you understand?
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Anlsvrthng
I asked you for the link 15 minutes ago

"now, what's the link to:
Anlsvrthng said:
Consumer Spending in China increased to 317509.70 CNY HML in 2017 from 293443.10 CNY HML in 2016. Consumer Spending in China averaged 44346.19 CNY HML from 1952 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 317509.70 CNY HML in 2017 and a record low of 453 CNY HML in 1952.
?"

first I need to see your sources before I might check your reasoning; do you understand?
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
so far so good,

consumer spending increase between 2016 and 2017: 8.2% indeed

looking back Thursday at 8:19 AM Today at 5:21 PM
I guess your next term is "household debt growth";
please state how big it is and provide the link
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Actually, between 2016 jan-2017 jan it is 44.4-38.8=5.6%, compared to the GDP.
3.5% between july of 2017-july of 2018.

Again,compared to GDP , not to consumer spending.
 
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Actually, between 2016 jan-2017 jan it is 44.4-38.8=5.6%, compared to the GDP.
3.5% between july of 2017-july of 2018.

Again,compared to GDP , not to consumer spending.
so let's start adding apples to apples:

consumer spending increase between 2016 and 2017
according to the link you provided 46 minutes ago
is (rounded) 317509-293443=24066 (unit is hundred of million Yuan)

what is "household debt growth" over the same period, in the same unit
please?
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
so let's start adding apples to apples:

consumer spending increase between 2016 and 2017
according to the link you provided 46 minutes ago
is (rounded) 317509-293443=24066 (unit is hundred of million Yuan)

what is "household debt growth" over the same period, in the same unit
please?
There is no similar quality data , the consumer credit
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doesn't necessarily contain the mortgage debt, and the value has to be guessed from the arises ( unless you have premium)
It is somewhere around 50 000 million yuan.

However the data that I use is the
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It is easy to scale up it to the level of consumer spending by multiply it with the consumer spending to GDP data :
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It is 39.3% (the highest value.

So if we divide the consumer debt to gdp with this number then we have the debt growth compared to consumer spending.
(44.4%-38.8%) /0.393=14.24%

Looks like the precise calculation showing way worst picture than the rough .
 
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