China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Jura The idiot]

how doing davidau, see below

you put your response inside [QUOTE
pulling it, it's:
"If the West could remember the recent history of opium war, gunboat diplomacy, unequal treaty, concessions that were imposed by the colonisists on the weak and corrupted Qing dynasty... these humiliations are still raw and real. Again, if the West care to study Chinese history about those islands, islets, rocks, reef and atols..they have been used for fishing by the Chinese fishermen since or before the great Admiral Zhenghe [ Ming dynasty about 1800s?]. He sailed around SE Asia and onto the Horn of Africa for a few voyages without claiming an inch of land as Chines territory contrary to now the new western power, US, UK and France now want to inflame & intimidate the calm [used to be] seas into naval confrontation. why ? Chinese want harmony, win-win; US & Co want zero sum..pure & simple. China is not the weak-easy-to- take-prey as she used to be, now she has the will, the capabilty to win a war should a war be imposed on her territory. The islets, atols, rocks, reefs in the South China Sea enclosed by the 9 dashed lines have always been the legimate and indisputable territory hundred of years ago.. Remember.. an adage by Chaiman Mao...power grows out of the barrel of a gun...."

I hope nobody will come now to say these are my words

 

[Jura The idiot]

The US media has repeatedly accused that China had broken "Xi's pledge" not to militarize Nansha island. What Xi said at the time that China did not have the "intention" to militarize Nansha Island, but Chinese government has also repeatedly said since those islands will have some necessary defense facilities, alongside other civilian facilities, and, the nature and the amount of defense facilities and equipment will depend on the military threats they face. With all the FON operations conducted by the US, many within the Chinese territory waters, it's not surprising that China will deploy more defense assets on the islands. I fully expect more to come despite/because of Secretary Mattis's threat.

Xi's statement is NOT a pledge, not a signed agreement between governments, not a formal treaty - heck, even signed agreements and formal treaties are violated or thrown away like garbage these days by some governments. They are statements of goodwill and intention that are also dependent upon others' related actions.

I was curious what people here had been saying at that time (September of 2015, in the context Yesterday at 8:50 AM), as at that time I couldn't tell Spratlys from Paracels (LOL)

in
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinas-scs-strategy-thread.t3118/page-159
though there're four posts of Moderation in a row, which likely means dozen pages deleted ... didn't know it had been THAT hot

so congrats to you
weig2000
it's remarkable to get ten 'Likes' (as of now) for just text

I end with repeating my hope which is China won't build beyond

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May 25, 2018

 

[Jura The idiot]

interestingly,
France, Britain to sail warships in contested South China Sea to challenge Beijing UPDATED : Monday, 04 June, 2018, 11:30am

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Defence ministers tell security forum they are contributing to rule-based order

France and Britain will sail warships through the South China Sea to challenge Beijing’s expanding military presence in the disputed waters, their defence ministers said on Sunday.

The two countries, both permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, made the remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, echoing the latest US plan to ramp up its freedom of navigation operations to counter Beijing’s militarisation in the region and its stance that territorial disputes should be a matter between China and its Asian neighbours.

A French maritime task group, together with British helicopters and ships, will visit Singapore next week and then sail “into certain areas” of the South China Sea, French armed forces minister Florence Parly told the annual defence forum.

Without naming China, she suggested the warships will cross into “territorial waters” claimed by Beijing and envisioned a potential encounter with its military.

“At some point a stern voice intrudes into the transponder and tells us to sail away from supposedly ‘territorial waters’,” she said. “But our commander then calmly replies that he will sail forth, because these, under international law, are indeed international waters.”

Parly said although France was not a claimant in the South China Sea disputes, by conducting such exercises “on a regular basis with allies and friends” it was contributing to a rule-based order.

“By exercising our freedom of navigation, we also place ourselves in the position of a persistent objector to the creation of any claim to de facto sovereignty on the islands,” she said.

Instead of accepting the situation as a fait accompli, Parly said France should question it, otherwise it will be established as a right.

“I believe we should broaden this effort even further,” said Parly, adding that Europe was mobilising more widely to support this endeavour and there were also German observers on board.

Beijing’s claims to more than 90 per cent of the South China Sea overlap with several of its neighbours’ and in recent months it has expanded militarisation of its man-made islands in the resource-rich waterway.

British Secretary of State for Defence Gavin Williamson also told the summit that three warships would be sent to the region this year to counter malign influence and preserve the rule-based order for the long-term.

“We have to make it clear that nations need to play by the rules, and there are consequences for not doing so,” Williamson said.

US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis on Saturday warned that Beijing’s militarisation of the South China Sea would face “much larger consequences”, without elaborating.

The Pentagon is reportedly considering a more assertive approach in the region which, compared to their previous freedom of navigation operations, could involve longer patrols, more ships and closer surveillance of Chinese facilities such as electronic jamming equipment and advanced military radars.

US officials are also reportedly pushing international allies and partners to increase their naval deployments in the vital trade route as China builds up its military presence on the disputed Paracel and Spratly islands, even if they stop short of a direct challenge.

At the forum, Beijing’s representatives responded to the French and British plans by saying the South China Sea is free and open for all to travel through, and there would be no restrictions on normal freedom of navigation.

“But violation of China’s sovereignty will not be allowed,” said Lieutenant General He Lei, vice-president of the Academy of Military Science and head of China’s delegation.

Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, director of the Centre for Security Cooperation under the defence ministry, said the question was whether France and Britain intended to sail within 12 nautical miles of Chinese-controlled islands and reefs.

“The Chinese features are not on the usual international shipping route, so if they deliberately enter those waters within 12 nautical miles, it will be seen by China as an intentional provocation,” Zhou said.

Last week, two US warships came within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands – which are claimed by China, Vietnam and Taiwan – and carried out manoeuvring operations.

The Pentagon also cancelled the PLA’s invitation to join an upcoming international maritime exercise off Hawaii, citing “China’s continued militarisation of the South China Sea”.

 

[Jura The idiot]

yes, I read this
Opinion: Who is trying to “intimidate and coerce” in the South China Sea?
2018-06-04 16:46 GMT+8

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The South China Sea issue has always been a “hot topic” at the annual Asia Security Summit, also known as the Shangri-La Dialogue in recent years. It again made headlines during the 17th Shangri-La Dialogue held over the weekend in Singapore.

US Defense Secretary James Mattis reportedly accused China of “intimidation and coercion” in the South China Sea while speaking at the forum on Saturday.

Mattis said China's militarization on man-made islands in the South China Sea “stands in stark contrast to the openness” of the US strategy.

He also warned that there would be “consequences” if China does not “find the way to work more collaboratively with all of the nations who have interest”, stressing that “America is in the Indo-Pacific to stay. This is our priority theater”.

In response to Mattis’s remarks on the South China Sea, Vice-president of the Academy of Military Science of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, He Lei said that China's deployment of defensive facilities on its islands in the South China Sea is legitimate and necessary, posing no threat to the regional security.

He said that China has always maintained that the South China Sea issue be dealt with through dialogue and consultation among the parties concerned on the basis of respect for historical facts and in accordance with international laws, noting that the current situation in the South China Sea has calmed down visibly as a result of the joint efforts of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Those who cry out against militarization are those who are actually undertaking militarization in the region, the Chinese military official added.

His comments remind me of the recent events that happened in the region. In the name of "freedom of navigation," the US has sent military vessels and aircraft to the adjacent waters and airs of Chinese islands and reefs to carry out military activities.

A week ago, Beijing lodged a protest against Washington after some US warships came within 12 nautical miles of China’s Xisha Islands.

These moves have not only constituted grave provocations against China’s sovereignty but also posed a serious threat to the security and stability of the region.

As a matter of fact, what the US warships did is the real cause for militarization in the region and what Mattis said is the coercion to stir up tension and trouble in the South China Sea.

 

[PanAsian]

interestingly,
France, Britain to sail warships in contested South China Sea to challenge Beijing UPDATED : Monday, 04 June, 2018, 11:30am

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yes, I read this
Opinion: Who is trying to “intimidate and coerce” in the South China Sea?
2018-06-04 16:46 GMT+8

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The facts speak for themselves, once again it is the Western colonial powers' self-serving aggression and interventionism that the rest of the world is supposed to cater to.

 

[plawolf]

The facts speak for themselves, once again it is the Western colonial powers' self-serving aggression and interventionism that the rest of the world is supposed to cater to.

Indeed, while the bare faced hypocrisy of the western powers is nauseating (where are their much vaunted rules based world order when it came or Iraq, Libya, Syria etc?!), at the end of the day, beyond wasting their taxpayers’ money, what does these British and Fench publicity stunts do? If the mighty USN could not achieve anything meaningful with FON, what would a few under armed and over priced European ships add to make any meaningful difference to the tactical or strategic picture?

Although at a strategic level, Beijing should consider going out of its way to creating problems for the British and French when the opportunity next presents itself just to remind them that choices have consequences and costs for them as well.

Both would be especially vulnerable with all the Brexit stupidity going on.

Get the British and/or French to send a big trade delegation to come at the same time as their ships plan to do their FON. See how firm their convictions are then.

 

[PanAsian]

Indeed, while the bare faced hypocrisy of the western powers is nauseating (where are their much vaunted rules based world order when it came or Iraq, Libya, Syria etc?!), at the end of the day, beyond wasting their taxpayers’ money, what does these British and Fench publicity stunts do? If the mighty USN could not achieve anything meaningful with FON, what would a few under armed and over priced European ships add to make any meaningful difference to the tactical or strategic picture?

Although at a strategic level, Beijing should consider going out of its way to creating problems for the British and French when the opportunity next presents itself just to remind them that choices have consequences and costs for them as well.

Both would be especially vulnerable with all the Brexit stupidity going on.

Get the British and/or French to send a big trade delegation to come at the same time as their ships plan to do their FON. See how firm their convictions are then.

It's not necessary for China to be vindictive nor is it appropriate or effective for it to respond indirectly when it comes to this particular topic. There are many countries that have a similar position as China on the related subjects of sovereignty and security, as well as similar negative experiences with colonialism and gunboat diplomacy, so this is a rare topic where China is set to win from an international hearts and minds perspective as long as it can stand up for itself and speak up about it directly.

 

[plawolf]

It's not necessary for China to be vindictive nor is it appropriate or effective for it to respond indirectly when it comes to this particular topic. There are many countries that have a similar position as China on the related subjects of sovereignty and security, as well as similar negative experiences with colonialism and gunboat diplomacy, so this is a rare topic where China is set to win from an international hearts and minds perspective as long as it can stand up for itself and speak up about it directly.

High minded ideals are all well and good, but what approach works also depend on the intended recipient.

The likes the France and the UK will just laugh at your moral high road and keep scoring cheap shots unless you stand up to them and make it clear that you are ready and willing to make them pay if they cross you.

Often you will find these weakening powers of yesteryear are only acting though because they didn’t expect you to push back, but as soon as their own interests are put on the line, they back off meek as you please.

China exists in the real world, and need to learn to play a little dirtier when dealing with the uglier realities of this world rather than keep being principled and take the moral high road all the time.

 

[Jura The idiot]

there're no posts in https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/south-china-sea-strategies-for-other-nations-not-china.t7302/ anymore, so here ...

... US moves to justify sail-by operations in South China Sea

9 hours ago

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A senior U.S. Navy officer has pushed back against suggestions at a regional security summit that freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea have been ineffective, calling them a long-term strategy for demonstrating that

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are not internationally recognized.

Speaking in Singapore at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, Rear Adm. Donald Gabrielson, commander of Logistics Group Western Pacific, added that the operations, known by the acronym FONOP, are not meant to be a military provocation or intended to shape policy in the short term.

Gabrielson said the operations are instead a statement on the lack of agreement to, and lack of recognition of, an excessive claim ― in this case China’s claim that the South China Sea islands it occupies and has constructed military facilities on are part of its territory. China has also deployed surface-to-air, anti-ship and jamming equipment to its reclaimed islands.

The islands in the Spratly and Paracel groups are also claimed by five other Asian countries, and several have reclaimed and constructed facilities on the islands, although they have been dwarfed by the pace and scale of China’s activities.

Gabrielson, who is due to be the next commander of Carrier Strike Group 11 out of Everett, Washington, added that the FONOPs were not a nation-on-nation interaction but rather a way to support the rights of all nations.

However, China, which claims large tracts of the South China Sea, its islands and features as part of its territory, has been angered by the FONOPs, which it sees as a violation of its territorial waters and sovereignty. It used this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue to express its displeasure at continuing American-led efforts to push back against Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea, despite not having a speaker at the dialogue’s plenary sessions due to it sending a relatively low-level delegation to the summit.

Senior Col. Zhao Xiaozhou, a research fellow at the Institute of War Studies of the People’s Liberation Army’s Academy of Military Sciences, said the FONOPs in the South China Sea were a “violation of the law of the People’s Republic of China.”

The officer accused the United States of “militarization in the South China Sea under the veil of the freedom of navigation,” following a speech by U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.

Mattis had noted that the United States does not see the operations as militarization, as its ships were going through what has traditionally been an international water space, citing rulings by international tribunals based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

UNCLOS determined in 2016 that, among other things, China’s claims “exceed the geographic and substantive limits of China’s maritime entitlements.” China had rejected the ruling, with the ruling Communist Party’s newspaper, the People’s Daily, saying the country “will neither acknowledge it nor accept it.”

 

[Jura The idiot]

here's something I want to say:

for me the indication of China building an empire would be if it began to reclaim

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now looked at the map again, Corregidor is 'in sight':