China's SCS Strategy Thread

Equation

Lieutenant General
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And then of course you have folks like Steve Bannon who see war as an excellent tool to bring the nation together -- just as the fascists of the past did.

Frankly I think this is a topic that receives far too little attention.

America's militarism, with the robust and layered mythologies that sustain it (from messianic Protestantism in the revolutionary era, to 'manifest destiny', to WW2 as "a good war against evil" that Americans never tire of reliving, to the supposed moral clarity of the Cold War and the unhinged moralism of the unipolar moment -- all stories that further and support the idea of redemptive violence) coupled with the otherwise acute and increasing fractures and dysfunction in American society, and the psychological stress of displacement from its status as the world's most powerful nation, combine to create a real risk of American belligerence in the medium-term.

To be clear, the danger is not that the United States is going to arbitrarily declare war on and invade China or Russia, the risk is that the United States will not seek to avoid war by mitigating tensions that arise with constructive diplomacy. It may encourage other nations with which China (or Russia) have disputes to act in ways that escalate tensions, providing an excuse for America to declare war.

All of this is basically unspeakable in the western world. Even those who are critical of American history, foreign policy, and/or who are horrified by Trump like to imagine him as a fluke and not a symptom of a progressing disease. Even those who acknowledge the possibility of an increasingly fractured relationship between China and the United States, or even the possibility of conflict, like to frame those ideas in terms of agent-less structural developments, or as emerging from Chinese actions. The idea that it is the United States that may be the real problem is unspeakable, certainly by Americans who value their careers.

But China cannot afford such a comforting blindspot. China must appreciate that it is dealing with an extraordinarily powerful, militaristic, and psychologically distressed nation that may come to act in increasingly reckless ways. Like a family that must hide from and attempt to placate a drunken and abusive father, China must remain acutely aware of the power relationships that exist (that will largely continue to favour the United States over the medium-term), of the potential consequences of conflict (military, but also economic), and choose carefully where and how to pursue its interests and if and how to respond to slights and adverse developments that will occur.

TL;DR: Don't overestimate American rationality, or underestimate American power.

Bottom line is the majority of the American people would NOT accept a large casualties of their men and women in the Armed Forces getting killed overseas. The people are already tired of wars through out the Middle East since 9/11. The war rhetoric's are done by a bunch of old American geezers who thinks the world revolves around them. They just can't accept or adapt to the changing times and world.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
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And then of course you have folks like Steve Bannon who see war as an excellent tool to bring the nation together -- just as the fascists of the past did.

Frankly I think this is a topic that receives far too little attention.

America's militarism, with the robust and layered mythologies that sustain it (from messianic Protestantism in the revolutionary era, to 'manifest destiny', to WW2 as "a good war against evil" that Americans never tire of reliving, to the supposed moral clarity of the Cold War and the unhinged moralism of the unipolar moment -- all stories that further and support the idea of redemptive violence) coupled with the otherwise acute and increasing fractures and dysfunction in American society, and the psychological stress of displacement from its status as the world's most powerful nation, combine to create a real risk of American belligerence in the medium-term.

To be clear, the danger is not that the United States is going to arbitrarily declare war on and invade China or Russia, the risk is that the United States will not seek to avoid war by mitigating tensions that arise with constructive diplomacy. It may encourage other nations with which China (or Russia) have disputes to act in ways that escalate tensions, providing an excuse for America to declare war.

All of this is basically unspeakable in the western world. Even those who are critical of American history, foreign policy, and/or who are horrified by Trump like to imagine him as a fluke and not a symptom of a progressing disease. Even those who acknowledge the possibility of an increasingly fractured relationship between China and the United States, or even the possibility of conflict, like to frame those ideas in terms of agent-less structural developments, or as emerging from Chinese actions. The idea that it is the United States that may be the real problem is unspeakable, certainly by Americans who value their careers.

But China cannot afford such a comforting blindspot. China must appreciate that it is dealing with an extraordinarily powerful, militaristic, and psychologically distressed nation that may come to act in increasingly reckless ways. Like a family that must hide from and attempt to placate a drunken and abusive father, China must remain acutely aware of the power relationships that exist (that will largely continue to favour the United States over the medium-term), of the potential consequences of conflict (military, but also economic), and choose carefully where and how to pursue its interests and if and how to respond to slights and adverse developments that will occur.

TL;DR: Don't overestimate American rationality, or underestimate American power.

Only those people who have been brainwashed by the western media would not see America as dangerously war happy.

America is a disturbingly militaristic society and people, and that is from a grass roots level as is evident in how elevated soldiers are in American society.

I do not think China’s leaders ever thought of America as not going out of its way to pick a fight, which I believe, is a big part of why China has always taken such a soft, appeasing approach when it comes to dealing with America belligerence and provocations.

In my view, China has only chosen to push back against America on matters and in places where it is prepared to go to war for, and have a good chance of at least not loosing the fight. The SCS is such an issue and place because of how fundamental the islands China has built up changes the balance of power in the area.

Those holdings went from glorified observation posts that anyone could take any time they wanted; to fortresses that when properly garrisoned and backed up by friendly offshore forces, would become unsinkable carriers that no amount of conventional ordinance could take out; yet could launch attacks that can wipe out even carrier strike groups wholesale. That pretty much forces any would be attacker to focus their attention and attacks mostly on the islands first. Since bypassing those islands would present an unacceptable level of risk for any fleet conducting combat operations in the area.
 
now noticed the tweet
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PLA海軍航空隊海南陵水飛行場、少なくともKJ500 AWACS機×4、GX-6対潜哨戒機×3と翔竜無人偵察機×2が駐屯。

Translated from Japanese by
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PLA Naval Air Corps Hainan-Ling Water Airfield, at least kj500 AWACS machine × 4, gx-6 patrol × 3 and Sho Dragon Unmanned reconnaissance aircraft × 2 garrison.

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flyzies

Junior Member
Only those people who have been brainwashed by the western media would not see America as dangerously war happy.

America is a disturbingly militaristic society and people, and that is from a grass roots level as is evident in how elevated soldiers are in American society.

I do not think China’s leaders ever thought of America as not going out of its way to pick a fight, which I believe, is a big part of why China has always taken such a soft, appeasing approach when it comes to dealing with America belligerence and provocations.

In my view, China has only chosen to push back against America on matters and in places where it is prepared to go to war for, and have a good chance of at least not loosing the fight. The SCS is such an issue and place because of how fundamental the islands China has built up changes the balance of power in the area.

Those holdings went from glorified observation posts that anyone could take any time they wanted; to fortresses that when properly garrisoned and backed up by friendly offshore forces, would become unsinkable carriers that no amount of conventional ordinance could take out; yet could launch attacks that can wipe out even carrier strike groups wholesale. That pretty much forces any would be attacker to focus their attention and attacks mostly on the islands first. Since bypassing those islands would present an unacceptable level of risk for any fleet conducting combat operations in the area.

Excellent discussion.

The current generation of Americans holding power in society are definitely so. But I'm hoping the next generation will be less idealistic and more pragmatic and realistic. Their alternative view is now starting to really come through, epitomised by the likes of RT, Young Turks, In The Now etc which are really gaining followers and traction. Incidentally, this coincides with the establishment's attempt to take down RT by listing as a "foreign agent" and trying to suppress all other alternative views that not theirs, which is the real goal of combating "fake news" on platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.
 
now noticed the tweet
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Exercice de la marine chinoise prévu du 20 au 21 Mars aux Paracels, en mer de Chine méridionale.

Translated from French by
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Exercise of the Chinese navy scheduled for 20 to 21 March at the Paracel, in the South China Sea.

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Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
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Registered Member
Just another question concerning an issue raised and shown in maps here:

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What I miss is reference to the exact type of radar and its performance namely radar range, which is often loosely referred to as about 200km. But since the HQ-9 Sam-system was spotted in the SCS it can be assumed (most likely) that the radars are the following ones:

HT-233 Fire control radar (Engagement radar) – detection range 120 km / tracking range 90 km
Type 120 Search radar (Acquisition radar)
Type 305A Search radar
Type 305B Search radar – detection range 330 km

And the YLC-20 and DWL002 passive radars


… but some sources also mention the YLC-2/YLC-2A/YLC-2V High Guard 3D Long Range Surveillance Radar – detection range: >500km


I must admit I’m a bit confused??? … and so any help appreciated

Best,
Deino
 
... U.S. Warship Sails Past Disputed South China Sea Artificial Island in Freedom of Navigation Mission
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A U.S. guided-missile destroyer conducted a freedom of navigation operation past an artificial island controlled by China on Friday, a U.S. defense official confirmed to USNI News.

USS Mustin (DDG-89) came within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef, an artificial island in the Spratly Island chain that is home to a major airfield, and conducted maneuvers near the Chinese base. Newswire
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first reported the operation on Friday.

“China holds indisputable sovereignty over the islands and their surrounding waters in the South China Sea,” defense ministry spokesman Ren Guoqiang said in a statement via CNN.
“By repeatedly sending military ships into these areas without authorization, the U.S. has seriously harmed Chinese sovereignty and security, violated basic rules of international relations, and harmed regional peace and stability.”

China claimed two People’s Liberation Army Navy frigates warded off the
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.

In a statement that did not acknowledge details of the operation, the U.S. Pacific Fleet said it conducts operations within the bounds of international law.

“All operations are designed in accordance with international law and demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows. We conduct routine and regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), as we have done in the past and will continue to do in the future,” read a statement from Lt. Cmdr. Nicole Schwegman provided to USNI News.
“FONOPs are not about any one country, nor are they about making political statements. The United States takes a strong position on protecting the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all countries and that all maritime claims must comply with international law as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention.”

Of the artificial islands Beijing has built in the South China Sea, an operation past Mischief Reef sends the least ambiguous challenge to China’s claims in the region. The installation is built on a low tide elevation – a feature that is underwater at high tide – and under the U.N. Law of the Sea Convention doesn’t command a territorial sea. Though not specified by the official, previous missions past Mischief Reef have specifically challenged China claim of a territorial sea for the feature.

The
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by guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG-56).
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, USS Dewey (DDG-105) came within six nautical miles of the base on Mischief Reef and spent 90 minutes within 12 nautical miles of the base.

USNI News understands this freedom of navigation mission is the second known FON op for the U.S. Navy in 2018. A January
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in which USS Hopper (DDG-70) operated near the Chinese-claimed Scarborough Shoal off the Philippines was part of the freedom of navigation program, a defense official confirmed to USNI News on Friday.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Vietnam halts South China Sea oil drilling project under pressure from Beijing
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HANOI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Vietnam has halted an oil drilling project in the "Red Emperor" block off its southeastern coast licensed to Spanish energy firm Repsol following pressure from China, three sources with direct knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Friday.
It would be the second time in less than a year that Vietnam has had to suspend a major oil development in the busy South China Sea waterway under pressure from China.
A source with direct knowledge of the situation said government ministries in Vietnam had paused the project while the decision-making politburo debates whether to suspend or indefinitely terminate the contract.
The decision, which hangs on whether the fees incurred by contract cancellation will exceed the cost of resisting Chinese pressure, is on hold until the politburo meets, the source said.
That meeting has been delayed by overseas trips by Vietnam's prime minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, a series of visits by foreign dignitaries to Hanoi, and the death of former prime minister Phan Van Khai on Saturday.
"The ministries are determined to terminate the contract," said the source, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation.
A source with direct knowledge of the situation confirmed that the project, which is a joint venture with state oil company PetroVietnam, had been stopped following pressure from China.
A source at Repsol told Reuters high-level executives had been discussing how to respond to the pressure, which had been applied both directly by China, and indirectly via Vietnam.
A spokesman for Repsol in Madrid declined to comment. PetroVietnam executives declined to comment. The Vietnamese foreign ministry did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.
Asked at a regular briefing if China had pressed either Vietnam or Repsol, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said she did not know where such news had come from, but did not elaborate.
"We hope the relevant sides can work together to maintain the hard-earned positive situation in the South China Sea," she said.
'RED EMPEROR'
Red Emperor, known in Vietnamese as the Ca Rong Do field, is part of Block 07/03 in the Nam Con Son basin, 440 km (273 miles) off the coast of Vietnam's southern city of Vung Tau.
The $1-billion field of moderate size by international standards is seen as a key asset to help slow the decline of Vietnam's stalling oil and gas production.
But the block lies near the U-shaped "nine-dash line" that marks the vast area that China claims in the sea and overlaps what it says are its own oil concessions.
Located in waters around 350 metres (1,148 ft) deep, it is considered to be profitable from around $60 per barrel. Current Brent crude oil prices are almost $70 per barrel.
The field's estimated potential recovery is around 45 million barrels of crude oil, 172 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 2.3 million barrels of condensate, a super light form of crude oil that is mostly a byproduct of gas production.
Global crude oil, by comparison, is at almost 100 million barrels per day. Global gas consumption is around 4 trillion cubic metres per year.
The move came as Repsol was making final preparations for commercial drilling, according to the BBC, which first reported the news on Friday.
A rig, the Ensco 8504, was due to depart from Singapore for the drill site on Thursday, the BBC said, citing an unnamed energy industry source.
Repsol spent around 33 million euros ($41 million) on exploration in Vietnam last year, according to the company's 2017 profit and loss statement.
Repsol's top management considers the Red Emperor site one of the company's future growth projects.
Repsol, which has a 51.75 percent stake in the project, signed a 384-million-euro rental contract for a rig to start work on a Vietnamese site in 2019, according to the statement.
Just under half the company's 1 billion euro ($1.23 billion) investments for which contracts have been signed for 2018 are in Vietnam.
(This version of the story has been refiled to clarify attribution in paragraph 7)
(Additional reporting by Jose Elias Rodriguez in MADRID and Christian Shepherd in BEIJING; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
 
now noticed the tweet
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Selon le porte-paroles de l'armée de l'air chinoise, des bombardiers H-6K et des chasseurs Su-35 ont été envoyés en patrouille récemment mer de Chine méridionale.

Translated from French by
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According to the spokesperson of the Chinese Air Force, H-6k bombers and Su-35 fighters were sent on patrol recently South China Sea.

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