Miscellaneous News
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TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
Not sure. the biggest problem for a nation looking to follow the Britton out the Door is economic. the UK kept the Pound Sterling, and has active trade perhaps not as much as it once had but still it's in a good position to walk away Greece is dependent on the EU It wanted out of the Eurozone but not out of the EU and it's trade is such that really I think it would be mass suicide for Greek economy.
The UK is in a unique position to walk away in an organized fashion because it joined the EU half-heartedly in the first place and still has a beneficial trade network from its prime colonial power days. Any other country leaving the EU would be messier even if they are a less significant entity but I doubt any country would.
That said about the trade/financial/economic aspect, it is a vindicating day for democracy. An occasion where the underdogs of the current social contract got an effective opportunity to renegotiate it, or at least strongly signal the desire to do so, while relatively far from revolution.
That said about the trade/financial/economic aspect, it is a vindicating day for democracy. An occasion where the underdogs of the current social contract got an effective opportunity to renegotiate it, or at least strongly signal the desire to do so, while relatively far from revolution.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Anyone who thinks the UK can pick the best parts while getting rid of the worse parts of the EU either doesn't fully understand what they are talking about and are just parroting lies from the leave campaign, or are hopelessly deluding themselves.
You cannot have all the benefits without any of the costs. No two ways about it, and the EU will make sure of it.
The rest of the EU will be in no mood to do the UK any favours during exit negotiations. In fact, it is strongly in the EU's own interests to make things as bad for the UK as possible, even if it means hurting their own economies to do so.
They will do that to make an example of the U.K., to show other countries who might be tempted to follow suit just what a god-awful idea that will be.
Encouraging the disintegration of the U.K. would be a strongly advisable play for the EU. All they need to do is promise that any part of the U.K. can remin a part of the EU if they leave the UK and Scotlish independence is pretty much guaranteed, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, maybe even London may well follow suit.
Such a calamitous sequence of events, or, the very real threat of it, may be enough justification to call a second, snap referendum on EU membership on the grounds that the leave campaign has mounted their entire campaign on lies and loony toon economics, and now that people are truly aware of what Brexit means, a great many people who voted leave are having massive buyer's remorse.
That would be the best case scenario for the EU, and they basically have nothing to loose and everything to gain by going for it.
Even if that doesn't work out, it will still be in the EU's best interest to make an example of the U.K. to stop a domino effective of other countries leaving that could kill the EU itself.
Any economic pain such a draconian policy will inflict on the remaining EU nations could be neatly and easily pinned on the UK for voting out in the first place.
A huge part of the appeal for many, if not most, major foreign countries and companies to invest and set up shop in the UK in the first place was the fact that doing so gave them open access to the EU common market.
Without that, the U.K. Will have a hard time attracting new investment, and may well see a mass exodus of existing companies, especially if Scotish independence occurs, and Scotland fills the niche the entire UK once occupied as the gateway to the EU.
To round off the irony, Scotland will be the one with all the power dictating the terms of their devorce to London under such circumstances, and will probably be able to secure deals even the most boorish Scotlish independence advocate would not have expected back in 2014.
This is like the end of the Shawshank Redemption, but instead of sweet, refreshing rain and a cleansing river, the U.K. is realising that it has escaped the 'prison' of the EU to emerge in a river of shit, and it's raining more shit, for the weather forecast is nothing but shit forever. Well done.
You cannot have all the benefits without any of the costs. No two ways about it, and the EU will make sure of it.
The rest of the EU will be in no mood to do the UK any favours during exit negotiations. In fact, it is strongly in the EU's own interests to make things as bad for the UK as possible, even if it means hurting their own economies to do so.
They will do that to make an example of the U.K., to show other countries who might be tempted to follow suit just what a god-awful idea that will be.
Encouraging the disintegration of the U.K. would be a strongly advisable play for the EU. All they need to do is promise that any part of the U.K. can remin a part of the EU if they leave the UK and Scotlish independence is pretty much guaranteed, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, maybe even London may well follow suit.
Such a calamitous sequence of events, or, the very real threat of it, may be enough justification to call a second, snap referendum on EU membership on the grounds that the leave campaign has mounted their entire campaign on lies and loony toon economics, and now that people are truly aware of what Brexit means, a great many people who voted leave are having massive buyer's remorse.
That would be the best case scenario for the EU, and they basically have nothing to loose and everything to gain by going for it.
Even if that doesn't work out, it will still be in the EU's best interest to make an example of the U.K. to stop a domino effective of other countries leaving that could kill the EU itself.
Any economic pain such a draconian policy will inflict on the remaining EU nations could be neatly and easily pinned on the UK for voting out in the first place.
A huge part of the appeal for many, if not most, major foreign countries and companies to invest and set up shop in the UK in the first place was the fact that doing so gave them open access to the EU common market.
Without that, the U.K. Will have a hard time attracting new investment, and may well see a mass exodus of existing companies, especially if Scotish independence occurs, and Scotland fills the niche the entire UK once occupied as the gateway to the EU.
To round off the irony, Scotland will be the one with all the power dictating the terms of their devorce to London under such circumstances, and will probably be able to secure deals even the most boorish Scotlish independence advocate would not have expected back in 2014.
This is like the end of the Shawshank Redemption, but instead of sweet, refreshing rain and a cleansing river, the U.K. is realising that it has escaped the 'prison' of the EU to emerge in a river of shit, and it's raining more shit, for the weather forecast is nothing but shit forever. Well done.
Jura The idiot
General
then you should perhaps check
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/breaking-world-news-iii-no-discussion.t7090/page-128#post-402651
LOL
Brumby
Major
I think it would be rather presumptious to think that the Brits did not comprehend the consequences of a Brexit when they went to the polls. The decision was always a trade off between economics and independence. Maslow's hierarchy of needs is again validated in that security trumps economics. There is no doubt that the UK will suffer short to medium term economic dislocation because after all the EU model was initially based on an economic synergistic model. The problem is that over time, the EU model became more intrusive and the people of the UK values independence and is prepared to pay an economic price.
vesicles
Colonel
Well, if EU is actually a unified nation like UK, the US or China, then leaving the union would have serious consequences. The remaining members will resent UK and make sure UK pays for what they have done.
However, EU is not a unified entity, with no unified identity. Far from it. Unlike any individual nation, there is no such thing as "being loyal to EU". It's composed of independent nations that all take their own country's interests as the absolute priority. Joining EU has always been a purely "profit-driven" thing. There is no delusion whatsoever about "patriotism toward EU".
So now, at this very moment, all the remaining members are thinking whether they should follow UK's example; what will happen to them when now UK has decided to leave. Instead of making UK pay for their "betrayal", everyone else is thinking "should we do it too?" Making UK an example is definitely not on top of anyone's list.
Keep in mind that EU is an economic alliance to begin with. When there is no longer incentive to keep it going, everyone will simply part their ways
@Brumby
Jeez
All I've seen from the Leave campaign over the past few weeks were outright lies and evasions on what would happen after a vote to leave, and this being repeated over and over again with a straight face.
Plus having spoken to lots of people in the past few weeks from a broad cross-section of British society, I can say that most did not comprehend the consequences.
It's the same sort of thing Trump is doing in the USA and which is working on the poorer and less educated and less urbanised
Jeez
All I've seen from the Leave campaign over the past few weeks were outright lies and evasions on what would happen after a vote to leave, and this being repeated over and over again with a straight face.
Plus having spoken to lots of people in the past few weeks from a broad cross-section of British society, I can say that most did not comprehend the consequences.
It's the same sort of thing Trump is doing in the USA and which is working on the poorer and less educated and less urbanised
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That pretty much sums it up in a nutshell.
After 2008 subprime crisis, the demographic you described isn't seeing their lot improved and couldn't hope for better any time soon. And their ranks are growing. A lot of people are feeling being left out. Status quo isn't working for them , where the well heeled well educated established elite calls all the shots. This time around they are not listening. London could be damned if a fisherman from Sunderland has no skin in the game big city big business play. And that's exactly how it went down while big cities like London, Manchester voted in and the rest of the England and Wales voted out.
Bookies were wrong. Polls were wrong. Rationality of human behavior largely depends on where it starts off, not where it ends up.
The good thing is GBP was effectively devalued overnight so for sure tourism and manufacturing will pick up. That will help the working class, not so much for the bankers and financiers.
Tourism will be up yes, but the side effect will be to make the housing shortage in much of the UK even worse.
And manufacturing exports will not see much of a boost, as why bother to make manufacturing investments if you don't know that you can sell those exports to the EU in the future?
It's a similar situation to that of Russia, which has seen a huge devaluation but no significant increase in exports because businesses are afraid that they can't sell their products because of EU sanctions.
And manufacturing exports will not see much of a boost, as why bother to make manufacturing investments if you don't know that you can sell those exports to the EU in the future?
It's a similar situation to that of Russia, which has seen a huge devaluation but no significant increase in exports because businesses are afraid that they can't sell their products because of EU sanctions.