Trade War with China

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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Josh Luo said:
Actually, the Huawei game is still ongoing. We are not sure if more countries would ban Huawei, but given EU countries' alliance with the U.S., I am leaning toward the EU's eventual ban on the company. Things could be very different for non-U.S. allies along the Belt and Road. Still, losing the EU, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. would literally be a bifurcation of the future of communication technologies. You might be right that things could turn out to be better for Huawei. Nevertheless, we still live in a world dominated by nation states, and the U.S.-led alliance system matters directly to the very survival of NATO members (including EU), South Korea, and Japan. If pressured to choose between the U.S. and China, most developed nations would still eventually choose the U.S. given their dependence on the U.S. alliance system for survival. Nevertheless, I am not ruling out what you have said. The U.S. alliance system MAY not be as credible as I think, but currently, I see the U.S.-led alliance system and hegemony working just fine. Also, until the next recession, the U.S. economy has been the healthiest since the 1950s.
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You're not looking at evidence; you're going off imagination. Every piece of evidence points to increasing discontent with the US and economically moving towards China. The US has never had less credibility in the world. Companies are avoiding US supply chains to do business with China. That is the evidence. Of course you cannot "rule out" my scenario because it is supported by evidence.

You are just going off your imagination saying forget all this evidence; things could still happen another way. Forget that this kid is growing bigger and healthier everyday; he could just die overnight. (And then you add the very funny remark, "I cannot rule out that he'll keep growing and thriving well.") Yeah, nobody can say that anything is an impossibility, but everything you are claiming is against evidence and current trends so "possibility" means very little. The US could possibly implode economically in 1 year; who wants to discuss that? No one, because it's improbable to the point of irrelevance, which is where your scenario is at as well.
 
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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
vincent said:
It would be extremely funny if Xi Jinping attends the G-20 but refuses to meet with Trump, which I think he absolutely should do. Meeting Trump will only make it seems like his threat work. Xi Jinping will look like a pushover.
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And don't say he doesn't wanna see Trump either; say this time Xi is just too busy meeting with other world leaders making deals so maybe next meeting if Xi has spare time at the end, we can try to set something up. If he thought MIC2025 was insulting, he's going to the hospital over this one LOL

But hey, who knows? Xi might dupe Trump into another 6 months of round-the-table BSing before yanking the deal at the last meeting LOL
 
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FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
Just because EU happens to be in a defensive alliance via NATO with the US does not mean they will cede their economic sovereignty to the US. The major continental powers are perfectly secure and safe without any need of the US. The only real threat EU faces is radical Islamic fundamentalism, a threat which they believe has been exacerbated by the US. Combined with political trends across Europe, the last thing the government of any major European power wants to do is cave in to US demands. In Asia, Japan is very much strategically aligned with the US, but they have too much too lose economically, more so than most of the other nations, and propping up an ailing economy and maintaining decent living standards are the main priorities in Japanese politics. Taiwan depends on US for defense, but they are also extremely dependent economically on PRC and do not want instability in cross straits relations. Lastly, Korea is aligned on some issues with the US strategically, but has fostered closer ties with mainland on both economic and strategic issues. Most importantly, neither the governments nor peoples of these nations will accept the US dictating who they are allowed to do trade with. Just look at the EUs disregard and opposition to the Iran sanction situation.
 
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xiabonan

Junior Member
White House acting budget chief seeks to delay Huawei restrictions: WSJ

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"The White House acting budget chief wants to delay the implementation of restrictions imposed by the U.S. on China’s Huawei,
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Russell Vought, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, made the request in a letter to Vice President Mike Pence and members of Congress, according to the Journal.

President Donald Trump declared national emergency last month over threats to U.S. technology and Huawei was added to a blacklist by the Commerce Department, which makes it difficult for the Chinese tech giant to do business with American companies."

According to the report, if the ban is delayed, it will only come into effect 3 years and 1 month later.
 
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xiabonan

Junior Member
The fact that the US is not holding strong on its position regarding Huawei will just give more reasons for other countries to NOT follow the US in banning Huawei.

If you are say France, or Germany, and followed the US in banning Huawei, you would really anger China. Say tomorrow Trump suddenly decides to delay a ban on Huawei or to have a deal with China that completely lifts the ban on Huawei, then Huawei will be okay but your country's trading relationship with China is never going to be the same unless you make some concessions.

Why risk your own country's interest for some unpredictable fool in the White House?
 
Quickie

Quickie

Colonel
manqiangrexue said:
There's not gonna be a deal like that. US is not gonna do something to give China even more growth momentum and China's not going to do anything that would allow the US an advantage in containing it. From now on, it's decoupling, competition, A against B, not cooperation. Under Trump, it will be outward; if Trump is replaced, the rhetoric will tone down, but the undercurrent will continue moving in the same direction.
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Some U.S. news commentators even commented about reversing China's technology or the possibility of reversing it. How irrationally greedy they must be if they are not satisfied with just stopping another country's progress in tech and go further than that to reverse it?
 
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xiabonan

Junior Member
Quickie said:
Some U.S. news commentators even commented about reversing China's technology or the possibility of reversing it. How irrationally greedy they must be if they are not satisfied with just stopping another country's progress in tech and go further than that to reverse it?
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Just because they think they can. For too long it has been that whatever America wants, it gets it. Or at least the American media and population think that it is. They know not what is "greed", because if you always get things done your way, then continue to ask so isn't greed, it's just the normal way of things.
 
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