World war 3 allready on the way!


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Sea Dog

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coolstorm said:
it depends on what measurement. on a purchasing parity basis, china's gdp is 4.8 trillion which is 2nd in the world after the us.

in real terms, china's gdp is still higher than germany with the rmb revaluation.

they are keeping their currency cheap to boost export.

with the current growth rate, china will be the largest economy in the world by 2030. in 2050, it will share 40 percent of the world's wealth.
China's economy is growing. But it's per capita is very low in comparison to what it's national GDP rates. I wouldn't bet on China's economy being the largest in the world by 2030. That's way too optimistic. Let's be realistic. China has alot of problems to deal with. Population being a major one. Plus the USA is moving towards shifting away from China and more towards Latin America. That's what CAFTA is all about. China depends on the USA's huge consumer market for her cash reserves. But I still believe that only lower end manufacturing will move to Latin America. China will, at least for the time being, be where the US manufactures high-tech products.

And no, I don't see any evidence that the USA is going to collapse.
 

adeptitus

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Jones Henry said:
Do you think America will become the new Soviet Union? If it collapses, what will the world be like then? I have a feeling world war 3 is allready coming along:(
The US is a country that can attract the brightest (brain drain) from around the globe. It's a growing country in terms of population, with a democratically elected, mostly switch-hitting leadership. No, it's not the Soviet Union. It might collapse from a catastrophic event, but prolly not any time soon.

For those unfamiliar with the "switch hitter" slang, it means you can bat with either right or left hand, whichever that suites the situation.

I'll cite some examples. If you look at people like Reagan and Jessie Helms, they both started in the Democratic party, then switched over to Republican. Jessie Helms was well known for his opposition to everything from the civil rights act, to making Martin Luther King Day a holiday. He was considered "anti-black". However as soon as the political winds shifted, he immediated got a male black intern and said "well, whatever, move on".

Chris Cox is prolly well known here for the Cox Report, where he bashed the US adminsitration in relaxing export restrictions on supercomputers and satellite technology.

But few people know that Cox is from California, home of Silicon Valley. Chris Cox was the guy who sponsered 2 bills to RELAX US high-tech exports (supercomputers, satellite technology, etc.) in the 1990's, including the "Comptuer Equipment and Technology Export Control Reforms Act", which made it possible for the US to export so called "super computers" to China.

Then some years later, when he was appointed to chairman of the China investigation panel, he flipped around and bashed the administration for loosening export restrictions. :roll:

Some of you might be offended by this idea, but I believe the US administration will last a long time because, it's run by many switch-hitting folks who flip their policy on as-needed basis. Where they stand today, depends on where they sit. Very "Realpolitik" and flexible. Heck look at Henery Kissinger, a great Machiavellian. Or, whatever happened to Bush's "Axis of Evil"? Is that Bill Richardson I see heading to North Korea?
 

Jones Henry

Banned Idiot
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adeptitus said:
The US is a country that can attract the brightest (brain drain) from around the globe. It's a growing country in terms of population, with a democratically elected, mostly switch-hitting leadership. No, it's not the Soviet Union. It might collapse from a catastrophic event, but prolly not any time soon.

For those unfamiliar with the "switch hitter" slang, it means you can bat with either right or left hand, whichever that suites the situation.

I'll cite some examples. If you look at people like Reagan and Jessie Helms, they both started in the Democratic party, then switched over to Republican. Jessie Helms was well known for his opposition to everything from the civil rights act, to making Martin Luther King Day a holiday. He was considered "anti-black". However as soon as the political winds shifted, he immediated got a male black intern and said "well, whatever, move on".

Chris Cox is prolly well known here for the Cox Report, where he bashed the US adminsitration in relaxing export restrictions on supercomputers and satellite technology.

But few people know that Cox is from California, home of Silicon Valley. Chris Cox was the guy who sponsered 2 bills to RELAX US high-tech exports (supercomputers, satellite technology, etc.) in the 1990's, including the "Comptuer Equipment and Technology Export Control Reforms Act", which made it possible for the US to export so called "super computers" to China.

Then some years later, when he was appointed to chairman of the China investigation panel, he flipped around and bashed the administration for loosening export restrictions. :roll:

Some of you might be offended by this idea, but I believe the US administration will last a long time because, it's run by many switch-hitting folks who flip their policy on as-needed basis. Where they stand today, depends on where they sit. Very "Realpolitik" and flexible. Heck look at Henery Kissinger, a great Machiavellian. Or, whatever happened to Bush's "Axis of Evil"? Is that Bill Richardson I see heading to North Korea?

Well, lets just hope they really ARE as smart as you claim they are, or that China is not smarter:china: :china: :china:
 

ger_mark

Junior Member
coolstorm said:
it depends on what measurement. on a purchasing parity basis, china's gdp is 4.8 trillion which is 2nd in the world after the us.

in real terms, china's gdp is still higher than germany with the rmb revaluation.

they are keeping their currency cheap to boost export.

with the current growth rate, china will be the largest economy in the world by 2030. in 2050, it will share 40 percent of the world's wealth.

how can a revaluation of 0.2 % make the gdp grow 100 percent ?
 

Chairman Hu

Banned Idiot
uhh thats because you cant, look heres the deal

the US wont collaspe maybe for another 200 years, China's economy will surpass the USA if it has reforms, shut up, and stop asking stupid questions

1.) Ger_mark... dude, it doesnt, we need to wait this out and see in about 10 years

2.) China's GDP is NOT 4.8 trillion, that was back in 1999, the current one is about 7.2, go look at ciafactbook!

3.) There is NO evidence of USA gonna collaspe soon because during the AGE OF EMPRIES (as I call it) Rome and Han China dealt with more sh1t than the US is doing now, the empires had government instability and corruption, sure the US corrupts, but things tend to be fixed and the US government is still pretty stable.

4.) The US becoming the next USSR is not possible (yet), depending on the future presidents and doctrines

PLZ DONT JUMP TO CONCLUSION YET PPL!
 

ger_mark

Junior Member
2.) China's GDP is NOT 4.8 trillion, that was back in 1999, the current one is about 7.2, go look at ciafactbook!
Chinas REAL GDP projection for 2005 is 1.7 trillion
those 7.2 just dont exist its an illusionary exchange factor where the coke costs the same in both countrys
 

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
ger_mark said:
Chinas REAL GDP projection for 2005 is 1.7 trillion
those 7.2 just dont exist its an illusionary exchange factor where the coke costs the same in both countrys
There are drastic differences between different GDP/PPP calculations. The CIA World Factbook uses an old PPP method that tends to give developing countries higher GDP, versus the World Bank Group uses PPP by "international dollars", which gives low GDP figures.

2004 PRC GDP
CIA World Factbook: $7.2 trillion (#2 ranking)
World Bank Group: $1.65 trillion (#7 ranking)

Needless to say there are deep flaws with both systems. The World Bank Group's mission is "poverty reduction in developing countries", and it doesn't need to be said that it's to their benefit to show the developing world has low GDP to justify the World Bank's own existence.

It's easy for us to say that a can of coke or barrel of petro cost the same no matter where you are due to international market's pricing, however this is a faulty assumption and does not take into consideration for local production and government pricing policies. If we all abandon paper currency and adopt the Islaimic gold dinar & silver dirham (a return to the gold standard), then yes, commodity pricing would be mostly similiar across the world with zero inflation.
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ger_mark

Junior Member
Needless to say there are deep flaws with both systems. The World Bank Group's mission is "poverty reduction in developing countries", and it doesn't need to be said that it's to their benefit to show the developing world has low GDP to justify the World Bank's own existence.
if you dont thrust WTO (lol) then look at the numbers of the International Monetary Fund
7 People's Republic of China 1,653,686

fact is purchasing power parity doesnt exist and it has only illusionary money
 

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
ger_mark said:
if you dont thrust WTO (lol) then look at the numbers of the International Monetary Fund
7 People's Republic of China 1,653,686
fact is purchasing power parity doesnt exist and it has only illusionary money
One could also argue that paper currency is worth less than toilet paper without government backing as legal tender. But the fact that governments print them and control exchange rates via monetary policy, makes them real in value.

PPP by Big Mac:
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