World Air Forces 2021 has just been released

zaphd

New Member
Registered Member
The numbers for China are ridiculously out of date. Eg. The Q-5 was officially retired several years ago, yet the paper claims there are over 100 in service. The amounts estimated for new types (J-20, Y-20) are roughly the same as what there is photo evidence for, which I guess is understandable. But the biggest offense is the gross underestimation in the airframe types which have been mass produced in the past 10-15 years, such as J-10, -11, -16, H-6 and JH-7.

Overall I would consider the tally in the annual IISS Military Balance publication to be more accurate. They seem to use estimates based on factors such as presumed production rates, the number of units operating each type, and some informed guesswork. And when it comes to following the Chinese military, that's a lot better than waiting for photo confirmation of each individual airframe when there are hundreds.

But World's Airforces is a good publication for following militaries that are more open. I was definately delighted to see it published yesterday.
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
The numbers for China are ridiculously out of date. Eg. The Q-5 was officially retired several years ago, yet the paper claims there are over 100 in service. The amounts estimated for new types (J-20, Y-20) are roughly the same as what there is photo evidence for, which I guess is understandable. But the biggest offense is the gross underestimation in the airframe types which have been mass produced in the past 10-15 years, such as J-10, -11, -16, H-6 and JH-7.

Overall I would consider the tally in the annual IISS Military Balance publication to be more accurate. They seem to use estimates based on factors such as presumed production rates, the number of units operating each type, and some informed guesswork. And when it comes to following the Chinese military, that's a lot better than waiting for photo confirmation of each individual airframe when there are hundreds.

But World's Airforces is a good publication for following militaries that are more open. I was definately delighted to see it published yesterday.

Nice info, good to know. I was also surprised to see the Q-5 still on there as an operational combat ac. I'm not sure if this is a simple error on their part or if they have an explanation. FWIW they source all their data from Cirium.

Do you have a link for the IISS fleet totals btw?
 

zaphd

New Member
Registered Member
Nice info, good to know. I was also surprised to see the Q-5 still on there as an operational combat ac. I'm not sure if this is a simple error on their part or if they have an explanation. FWIW they source all their data from Cirium.

Do you have a link for the IISS fleet totals btw?
IISS Military Balance is not a free document, so unfortunately I can't give you a link. Maybe you can find it in a university library close to you if you have access? The full text may or may not be floating illegally on the internet, but I don't advocate for copyright infringement.
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Here is a Japanese defense White Paper, it's much better. It's only a few years out of date (Chinese fighters numbers). These combat fighters too low at first sight (J-16 - numbers should be about 160, J-10 - about 600).

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1607345790054.png
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here is a Japanese defense White Paper, it's much better. It's only a few years out of date (Chinese fighters numbers). These combat fighters too low at first sight (J-16 - numbers should be about 160, J-10 - about 600).

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View attachment 66316

It's amazing this is a few years out of date but has much higher modern aircraft #s than the WAF2021 just released a few days ago... though I am seeing it is sourced from 2020 so maybe only a few months out of date (?)

So who is correct? Is WAF2021/Cirium really just that way off on Chinese #s?

Maybe @zaphd can tune in. Do you think China has ~468 J-10, ~600 J-10, or just ~235 J-10 as WAF/Cirium say?
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's a new report, but the numbers for Chinese aircraft are a few years out of date, that is what I mean.
It is not what one thinks, but what we can assess from the given information we have. At the end of 2020, it should be about 600 J-10 built and more than 160 J-16.
 

SpicySichuan

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's a new report, but the numbers for Chinese aircraft are a few years out of date, that is what I mean.
It is not what one thinks, but what we can assess from the given information we have. At the end of 2020, it should be about 600 J-10 built and more than 160 J-16.
The number of J-16 in service should be around 200
 
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