US Navy & PLAN - South China Sea Situation News (Closed)

Status
Not open for further replies.

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Great write-up, Jeff. What about the Sovs, 056 Corvettes, 053H3, Hubei FAC, Song Class subs, and the various maritime patrol aircrafts and UAVs China could bring to the table, and in greater numbers than US aircrafts and UAVs.
Clearly the Sovs, the Type 056s, and others (including the PLANs own SSNs and Song SSKs) could be there.

I just wanted to list those that are most likely...and specifically did not include status of air assets on the airfield or the US carriers.
 

ManilaBoy45

Junior Member
US Threatens Further Naval Incursions Around Man Made Islands in the Spratly Archipelago Despite Furious Reaction from China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



The US has threatened further naval incursions into waters claimed by China after naval manoeuvres near two artificial islands in the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
prompted an angry rebuke from Beijing.China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in protest and accused the US of a “serious provocation” following US naval manoeuvres during which the guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen sailed close to a Chinese artificial island.

But US defense secretary Ash Carter warned on Tuesday that naval operations in the area would continue. “We will fly, sail and operate wherever international law permits,” said Carter, during a congressional hearing in which lawmakers claimed the US risked losing credibility with its allies in the region if it did not act.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I'm also not sure if it's very helpful by listing all the ships and weapons both sides have in the opening post of this thread, which may give off the wrong impression that both sides are inevitably headed towards conflict...
I have provided the following on the 1st page of this thread:

Thread said:
Be aware: THI IS NOT A CONFLICT OR WAR THREAD.

No actual speculation over warfare and fighting between the US and the PRC will be discussed. However, it is important to note the type of vessels that may be called upon to be a part of the exercises named. SD prides itself on professionalism and on accurate date in such situations.

This thread is simply attempting to provide a place for that and relive other SCS Strategy Pages on SD of the undoubtedly large amount of volume over this specific issue now that it has arisen..

I will go back and put that in Moderator Blue to emphasize it.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
US Threatens Further Naval Incursions Around Man Made Islands in the Spratly Archipelago Despite Furious Reaction from China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It's very interesting to see how the media are playing this out. The statements by MFA have been pretty calm and tempered, and the actual event itself was a non-event, if anything, yet China's relatively low key response is being spun like they're frothing at the mouth or something.

Concerning.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The entire issue has been, for FON, the 12-mile limit.

China does claim it.

The US refuted it and indicated that they would sale within 12 miles.

The Chinese have now warned, protested, and even summoned the US ambassador over the US doing that very thing. They have claimed that in doing so, that the US violated their territorial/national waters.

To be sure...the whole point of last night's US exercise with the USS Lassen was to break the 12-mile limit. The US announced they would do so 24 hours before doing so. They have now done so at Subi and Mischief...and specifically at those because I believe those two reefs were below water at low tide.

China has announced that the PLAN shadowed the US vessel, and then protested over their actions.

If the 12-mile limit is not an issue...and all recognize that waters outside of that 12-mile limit are part of international sea lanes...then there would be no reason for the protests or summoning the US ambassador over it.

This is all pretty much what I forecasted and predicted on the Strategy Threads.

Jeff, my question for you is where has China actually explicitly claimed a 12nm limit around the islands?

Because in both cases including the P-8 and the USS Lassen, China's MFA statements never described a 12nm limit around the reclaimed islands but rather described it in terms of simply in waters near Chinese islands or reefs or a military alert zone.

I want to emphasize this, because China is opposed to military surveillance or actions within its EEZ as well, and China also claims Taiping island in the SCS which has its own 200km EEZ, and both Subi and Mischief reefs are within the EEZ of Taiping island, so the presence of US vessels conducting actions near both of those reefs would be considered as provocative and a challenge to China's sovereignty... but not necessarily because of any existence of a 12nm limit.

I think the entire issue for the US has been about the 12nm limit, but the issue for China has been about US military vessels and aircraft operating around those reclaimed islands, in the context of Taiping Islands EEZ.
At the very least, unless we have direct evidence of China saying "we claim there to be a 12nm territorial limit around the reclaimed islands," then I feel like we might be misinterpreting China's actual intentions.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
It's very interesting to see how the media are playing this out. The statements by MFA have been pretty calm and tempered, and the actual event itself was a non-event, if anything, yet China's relatively low key response is being spun like they're frothing at the mouth or something.

Concerning.
I agree, Bltizo.

But the nature of the press is to try and sell stories these days...as opposed to simply reporting the news.

As it is, we can take a hint/message from the fact that The Chinese President visited the US and sat down with the US President. It was announced that this specific issue was discussed.

Then, the next week, the US announces in the open that within a 24 hour period they would sale within 12 miles of SCS reclaimed Islands. I saw one report that correctly named the US Ship and the two Islands that would be involved...before it happened.

I am convinced that all of this was discussed and that both sides new before hand...indicating, despite differences, that both sides were doing everything in their power to avoid miscalculation or any serious confrontation.

Now it has happened. The US has claimed FON. China has warned the US, as we knew they would. The even called the US ambassador in to protest...but I bet all of that was understood up front too.

I expect that there will be further actions...and further protests. At some point, both sides will be satisfied that they have made their point and things will probably settle down to some form of status quo for the present and into the near to mid term.

And China will continue to build up those islands and there is nothing the US will be able to do about it except sail around them.

As long as that is the extent of it on both sides, I do not see a serious issue arising.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I saw it reported this afternoon that the vessel that shadowed the Lassen was in fact the Kunming, DDG-172, the first Type 052D destroyer.

This further issue further illustrates my point.

The US, in announcing what was going to happen in the clear (and I believe China was aware of it even before that announcement) had toe to get the Kunming down there.

The Kunming is, of course, the PLAN's current most advanced commissioned DDG. Very similar in function and capability to the Lassen.

type-052d-01-jpg.20632
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
US Threatens Further Naval Incursions Around Man Made Islands in the Spratly Archipelago Despite Furious Reaction from China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



The US has threatened further naval incursions into waters claimed by China after naval manoeuvres near two artificial islands in the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
prompted an angry rebuke from Beijing.China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in protest and accused the US of a “serious provocation” following US naval manoeuvres during which the guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen sailed close to a Chinese artificial island.

But US defense secretary Ash Carter warned on Tuesday that naval operations in the area would continue. “We will fly, sail and operate wherever international law permits,” said Carter, during a congressional hearing in which lawmakers claimed the US risked losing credibility with its allies in the region if it did not act.
The last part of Ash Carter's statement is the crux of so-called Freedom of Navigation Operations, and it clearly shows the saber rattling is really about US credibility with regional allies, with navigation rights the lesser issue. We'll now see who wants it more and how the balance of resolve tilts. My guess is Beijing has greater fortitude, but we'll see.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I saw it reported this afternoon that the vessel that shadowed the Lassen was in fact the Kunming, DDG-172, the first Type 052D destroyer.

This further issue further illustrates my point.

The US, in announcing what was going to happen in the clear (and I believe China was aware of it even before that announcement) had toe to get the Kunming down there.

The Kunming is, of course, the PLAN's current most advanced commissioned DDG. Very similar in function and capability to the Lassen.

type-052d-01-jpg.20632

There is some reports saying that it wasn't DDG 172 but rather DDG 170 and FFG 533... either way, USS Lassen was escorted, but the actual ships present are unclear.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
I saw it reported this afternoon that the vessel that shadowed the Lassen was in fact the Kunming, DDG-172, the first Type 052D destroyer.

This further issue further illustrates my point.

The US, in announcing what was going to happen in the clear (and I believe China was aware of it even before that announcement) had toe to get the Kunming down there.

The Kunming is, of course, the PLAN's current most advanced commissioned DDG. Very similar in function and capability to the Lassen.

type-052d-01-jpg.20632
Humm..., you don't suppose Obama and Xi arranged the kabuki dance in their recent Washington Summit, do you?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top