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bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Even though U.S doesn't declare that it will defend Taiwan, I am willing to bet 100% that U.S will do that. They are stockpiling like crazy before 2027.

The total production of 5th gen jets for China is far behind US. However, for 6th gen it doesn't have to be that way. If China can outproduce US in 6th jets, it will take the lead in battlefield. I think it is battle ready for Taiwan, US and its allies by 2035. Whatever China is doing for the next 10 years is extremely important.

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Tomboy

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
bebops said:
Even though U.S doesn't declare that it will defend Taiwan, I am willing to bet 100% that U.S will do that. They are stockpiling like crazy before 2027.

The total production of 5th gen jets for China is far behind US. However, for 6th gen it doesn't have to be that way. If China can outproduce US in 6th jets, it will take the lead in battlefield. I think it is battle ready for Taiwan, US and its allies by 2035. Whatever China is doing for the next 10 years is extremely important.

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I don't see why any reason is there to rush it, even by 2035. IMO by 2040 China could potentially even force a peaceful unification just by overwhelming military superiority even against the US, of course more overseas Chinese bases forming China's own version of the first island chain to contain the US and reliably threaten CONUS and not just couple of US military outposts and bases in case if they decide to try some funny business.
 
burritocannon

burritocannon

New Member
Registered Member
personally, i think the davidson window is for the us, not for china. the us has the greater need to attack sooner, rather than later, and i expect it to increase provocation and compel china to attack.
for comparison, although american history sells pearl harbor as an unexpected attack by the japanese, the leadup to america's entry into ww2 is characterized by measures like the export control act of 1940, which was expressly calculated to compel the japanese to choose between forfeiture of their interests or being brought to battle. at the highest levels, america expected, perhaps even hoped for pearl harbor to happen.
 
Tomboy

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
burritocannon said:
personally, i think the davidson window is for the us, not for china. the us has the greater need to attack sooner, rather than later, and i expect it to increase provocation and compel china to attack.
for comparison, although american history sells pearl harbor as an unexpected attack by the japanese, the leadup to america's entry into ww2 is characterized by measures like the export control act of 1940, which was expressly calculated to compel the japanese to choose between forfeiture of their interests or being brought to battle. at the highest levels, america expected, perhaps even hoped for pearl harbor to happen.
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The arguement for the Davidson window is that since the US right now is lacking against Chinese fleet due to no decent antiship weapons and whatnot but they expect the missile gap to close by ~2028 or so. But IMO that doesn't really account into the advances of technology especially in ABM technology. Plus, most importantly the ever growing numbers of the Chinese underwater fleet with more advanced submarine that could match or exceed USN's own in capability. So IMO US's advantage is waning by the day, it would be in their advantage to provoke an attack as soon as possible before Chinese buildup become so large that it's unmanageable.
 
G

gpt

Junior Member
Registered Member
Tomboy said:
The arguement for the Davidson window is that since the US right now is lacking against Chinese fleet due to no decent antiship weapons and whatnot but they expect the missile gap to close by ~2028 or so. But IMO that doesn't really account into the advances of technology especially in ABM technology. Plus, most importantly the ever growing numbers of the Chinese underwater fleet with more advanced submarine that could match or exceed USN's own in capability. So IMO US's advantage is waning by the day, it would be in their advantage to provoke an attack as soon as possible before Chinese buildup become so large that it's unmanageable.
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Long range fires and counterspace are the absolute top items for high intensity Westpac scenario. Kendall pretty much said even if 6gen was matured today it wouldn't do much good if those bases are being targeted.

Space Force budget is not sufficient for this and Trump's rather vain Golden Dome proposal further strains the force.

USN attack subs capabilities are very substantial but there are many limitations such as magazine depth.
 
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