US F/A-XX and F-X & NGAD - 6th Gen Aircraft News Thread

[AndrewS]

Pardon, but why do you think there is a „lack of talent“? I think no-one should underestimate any of the big US aircraft maker in developing a technically top-notch fighter! The bigger issues IMO are more management, political and budget.

The Pentagon has said multiple times that they don't believe there are enough resources (aka talent) to develop both the Air Force F-47 and the Navy F/A-XX at full speed.

And also remember that each high-end UADF is essentially a single-engine 6th gen fighter that happens to be unmanned.

So we've seen 2 of these designs already delivered to the Chinese Air Force and flying.

In comparison, there's only one comparable American design, and it will be years before first flight.

 

[AndrewS]

That's parts, and unlikely high level ones.
Overall I don't think it's up to much debating US ecosystem for fighters is still comprehensively ahead of everyone else.

I think Chinese fighter production will shortly be comparable to the US.

When the J-35 and J-20 have ramped up, I expect it to at least match F-35 production.
Then you also have the Flankers and J-10, which are roughly comparable to the F-15 and F-16 respectively.

Then you have next gen fighters and CCAs, where the US is 3+ years behind

So I don't think you can say the US fighter ecosystem is comprehensively ahead.

China is close/up to/maybe even better on the key parts and it's develop cycle much faster, allowed for more up to date designs roll off fast and smoother (courtesy of doing end to end projects fighter projects every few years), but overall there are holes.(Engines most obvious). There are no holes in US.

I think it really is just Chinese engines which are behind, but remember that we're only taking about a ~10% performance difference.

I would say that the US does have a big hole in its aerospace industry, where there is a significant shortage of engineers to develop all the new fighter designs coming up. With the CCAs, that is 4+ new designs.

 

[AndrewS]

Pardon, but why do you think there is a „lack of talent“? I think no-one should underestimate any of the big US aircraft maker in developing a technically top-notch fighter! The bigger issues IMO are more management, political and budget.

And don't forget the F-35 Block 4 saga, which has been delayed 8+ years.
That is enough time to develop a completely new aircraft from scratch.
So we can legitimately say that Lockheed Martin is incompetent at upgrading an existing fighter aircraft, never mind developing a completely new fighter.

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Then look at how Boeing is doing in the civilian realm, where they've gotten rid of experienced engineers, outsourced everything, and are skimping on quality control.

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So this is the situation with 2 of the 3 big US aircraft makers....

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And this isn't isolated to the US Air Force.

If you look at what is happening in the US Navy in terms of weapons system development, it's far, far worse...

 

[Tomboy]

And don't forget the F-35 Block 4 saga, which has been delayed 8+ years.
That is enough time to develop a completely new aircraft from scratch.
So we can legitimately say that Lockheed Martin is incompetent at upgrading an existing fighter aircraft, never mind developing a completely new fighter.

China doesn't announce delays so who knows what has been delayed, stuff like the WS-15, H-20 are likely heavily delayed big ticket items.

I think Chinese fighter production will shortly be comparable to the US.

When the J-35 and J-20 have ramped up, I expect it to at least match F-35 production.
Then you also have the Flankers and J-10, which are roughly comparable to the F-15 and F-16 respectively.

Then you have next gen fighters and CCAs, where the US is 3+ years behind

So I don't think you can say the US fighter ecosystem is comprehensively ahead.



I think it really is just Chinese engines which are behind, but remember that we're only taking about a ~10% performance difference.

I would say that the US does have a big hole in its aerospace industry, where there is a significant shortage of engineers to develop all the new fighter designs coming up. With the CCAs, that is 4+ new designs.

US has the best aircraft composite materials technology in the world and access to the best materials to build those composites. No one knows how big the gap between engines are and there are other key technology related to engines like stealthy augmenters, exhaust design etc that China has not shown any mastery in.

 

[sunnymaxi]

US has the best aircraft composite materials technology in the world and access to the best materials to build those composites. No one knows how big the gap between engines are and there are other key technology related to engines like stealthy augmenters, exhaust design etc that China has not shown any mastery in.

apart from Engines i don't see any big difference between USA and China when it comes to military aviation.

China has its own advantages. the biggest plus point is young and vibrant engineers. J-35 design team average age is 35 years.

 

[Tomboy]

apart from Engines i don't see any big difference between USA and China when it comes to military aviation.

Do you have by any chance any materials or reading on Chinese aviation composites? It's hard to find solid claims/proof when it comes to stuff like Chinese aircraft are all highly composite other than most PLA watchers simply taking it as fact. Best source I could find on the Chinese internet is some educational TV channel saying J-20's wing use mainly CFRP. Color of the primers on these planes are strange as well, bright yellow is normally associated with chromate-based paint which is only used on aluminium structure, although, fair someone did point out that A350 has yellow composite panels but it's pretty clear that the tone of that yellow is much duller and more akin to golden instead of bright yellow.

 

[Maikeru]

The reputation of US aerospace/MIC was made on Boomers who are now retiring. Many of the most capable engineering graduates in the US go into finance or SV tech sector where the rewards are much higher rather than legacy companies like Boeing. Of the engineers who might go into aerospace, many are disqualified from military projects on security grounds. Hence talent shortage.

China has the opposite problem, but that's a nicer problem to have.

 

[vincent]

I think it really is just Chinese engines which are behind, but remember that we're only taking about a ~10% performance difference.

Sensors are far more important in modern aerial combats and Chinese radar tech is ahead.

 

[AndrewS]

China doesn't announce delays so who knows what has been delayed, stuff like the WS-15, H-20 are likely heavily delayed big ticket items.

I don't think the H-20 is heavily delayed due to staffing issues.

I suspect the original mission requirements (up to the 2nd Island Chain) have been superceded, as this will now be covered by a combination of J-36 air superiority aircraft and the GJ-X unmanned stealth bomber (which is the same size as the B-21 manned stealth bomber).

Note that the J-36 and GJ-X development programmes must have been started before 2022.
So I doubt they even bothered assembling an H-20 airframe designed for the 2nd Island Chain.
And they're now pivoting to a H-20 airframe designed for 3rd Island Chain distances (Hawaii, Alaska, Seattle, etc)
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Engines programmes are in another class altogether. Clean sheet engine development programmes typically take longer to develop than an actual fighter jet.

US has the best aircraft composite materials technology in the world and access to the best materials to build those composites.

Hexcel say they are the only supplier of carbon-fibre to the F-35, with a T800 equivalent carbon fibre.

China can mass produce T1000 carbon fibre now.
So I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese fighter jets start using T1000 carbon first, given the slow speed of future US fighter development.

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Sinofibres can also produce T1100, but I suspect it isn't worth mass-producing in China because it is significantly more expensive and there isn't currently demand for lots of T1100.

No one knows how big the gap between engines are and there are other key technology related to engines like stealthy augmenters, exhaust design etc that China has not shown any mastery in.

I recall a Pentagon/USAF comment that it is only a 10% thrust difference between Chinese and American engines.

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In the current battlespace, I think further improvements in X-band stealth (stealthy augmenters, exhaust design etc) only result in very minor benefits for fighter-sized aircraft. Far more important will be the electronic warfare space, which favours greater numbers of EW platforms and CCAs. Plus the Chinese Air Force expects to have numerical superiority and to be the one with the initative conducting offensive missions in the Western Pacific, so rear-aspect stealth should be secondary.

My guess is that future air battlespaces will comprise very large numbers of aircraft, mostly comprising CCAs of one sort or another. So again, the benefits of additional rear-aspect stealth would be very minor.

However, broadband stealth for fighter-sized aircraft against UHF/VHF radars is still very relevant, and on that front, China is significantly ahead.

 

[mack8]

So China is ahead in fighter design (and i think we can agree that if someone would have said 10 years ago or even 5 years ago that China will lead the world in fighter design today, most of us we would have seen them as loony fanboys) with two 6th gen airframes and two UADFs which are basically light 6th gen fighters, ahead in avionics since everything suggest widespread GaN radar use, but somewhat behind in engines compared to US. Hopefully the engine hurdles will be overcome too so by next decade China will be at least on par if not puling ahead on engines too.

Like i keep saying, China's current general lead in fighters is theirs to lose, so it will be disappointing if they don't fly a 6th gen carrier fighter before the FA-XX.