Ukrainian War Developments

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pmc

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ansy1968 said:
@solarz Sir next year after experiencing a bitter winter, The West especially the US will want to escalate again cause for them a threat from Russia is a way to tightened the leash on EU.
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Russia will continue its policies to ensure US remain dominant in EU.
Take Japan example. it didnot progress much beyond certain point and in narrow fields. Japan is depended on Taiwan/Malaysia.
French De Gaulle in 1960s trying to make it independent while simultaneously depended more on Germany/Italy/Netherlands which are deeply committed to Nato. that is illogic of French.
When Germany decide that it will phase out Nuclear power. It is signal to whole EU where the skill labor and capital of Europe will be employed.
France is enjoying that Germanic decision power a decade later trying to stick with its Nuclear industry. it is stuck in the middle.
 
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reservior dogs

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Anlsvrthng said:
Target is to decrease the cost of defend the homeland.


Shipping few million barell of oil to Cuba or Venesuela won't damage the prospect of Russia, and inserting tripwire russian soldiers and few INF unit will make it very hard to conduct color revolution .

At the moment Russia has trade surpluss, means there is lot of way to put that money to work without affecting the home budget.


Target could be in Syria is to get full control of that country AND Iraq as well, and afterwards create a syria-iraq-iran landblock, that makes next to impossible to penetrate Iran with aircrafts.
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Both Russia and Iran have been shipping oil to Venezuela for a while. Russia care about a color revolution in the one remaining ally, Belarus. Belarus has already effectively joined Russia. All the other traditionally Russian Allies have either already turned to the West or is neutral.
In Syria and Iran, as long as the governments are stable, that is what Russia care about the most. They will not pick a fight with the U.S. arm forces directly. It is very expensive and the incremental gain is not worth the cost. For Iraq, it is infinitely cheaper to be insurgents and have the U.S. government station troops there.
 
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reservior dogs

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Overbom said:
People here talk about economics, politics, social impact etc and dismiss Russia's willingless to out right attack Ukraine if needed

I still haven't heard a counter argument on why Russia would ever accept NATO arming Ukraine to the teeth. Ukraine is literally next to Russia. By employing such tactics NATO can divert Russia's military + diplomatic resources towards Ukraine which NATO would love. This would limit Russia outreach towards many regions, giving the opportunity for the West to expand its influence there

This is similar to Taiwan with China. The West is managing to constrain China's diplomatic capital towards Taiwan. The only difference now is that while China grows, it can inevitably give more attention to other regions

I really doubt that Putin would accept a similar situation to arise in Ukraine. Which is why I believe that unless the West provides solid guarantees, Russia will attack Ukraine

The game now is all about diplomacy. If that fails, the bear will use its claws
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All nations mess with others when they can, some more than others. It is not a matter of accepting but how you would handle this kinds of intrusion. For Russia, it is infinitely better to not attack Ukraine so the West would own the mess that is Ukraine. If both Ukraine and Russia station 100K troops there, Ukraine will go bankrupt very quickly and Russia will be OK. All Russia wants at the moment is to see no NATO troops in Ukraine. An unstable and weak Ukraine with the potential of war with Russia will go a long ways to deter NATO expansion there. If Russia attacks Ukraine, even if they were not to occupy the country, they would incur sanctions and such which will have a big impact on its economy. They can always invade. If NATO do decide to station troops there, I believe they will invade. For now, this is the best arrangement Russia can manage. All they have to do and hold out for 5-10 years. The U. S. may decline to such a state that we will be powerless to fight in Ukraine. Do you think with the U.S. out of the picture, the European countries have the ability to initiate a fight with Russia so close to its soil?
 
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emblem21

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escobar said:
RU in a hard situation...
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1474074140730695694
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1474071703831687176
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NATO and the USA is already sending arms and supplies to Ukraine already so no matter what the situation is going to be, Russia has to respond anyway given that the west refuses to see reason. Russia is in a do or die situation no matter what given that the USA is pushing almost crazily for war while trying to present themselves as the good guys as much as possible. So far Russia has sent soldiers to their border and is yet to invade and is right now trying every avenue for diplomacy, yet if the west arms Ukraine with nukes and more, an invasion is inevitable because the west is extremely untrustworthy and has already been proven via the likes of Victoria Nuland that peace is simply impossible when forces like her is pushing ultra hard for the destruction of Russia no matter the cost.
If the situation is a true do or die situation where all diplomacy is off, Russia has to be prepared to do what is necessary because economy or not, once a nation decides to cross the red line in a definitive manner, nothing less then complete victory will deter the west although it would be better if most of damage is focused on the USA since they are the ones that are pushing for a war and is the one that unless you cripple their capacity to make war and have all those responsible for such things be dragged in front of the world and tried for all the crime one can think of and take the appropriate measures to forever deter them from ever going to war (heck executions ought be used on principle for the likes of Nuland, Bolton and even Blinken because they have always argued for war while trying to make themselves look the hero), they simply will not stop with their invasions.
 
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Anlsvrthng

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emblem21 said:
NATO and the USA is already sending arms and supplies to Ukraine already so no matter what the situation is going to be, Russia has to respond anyway given that the west refuses to see reason. Russia is in a do or die situation no matter what given that the USA is pushing almost crazily for war while trying to present themselves as the good guys as much as possible. So far Russia has sent soldiers to their border and is yet to invade and is right now trying every avenue for diplomacy, yet if the west arms Ukraine with nukes and more, an invasion is inevitable because the west is extremely untrustworthy and has already been proven via the likes of Victoria Nuland that peace is simply impossible when forces like her is pushing ultra hard for the destruction of Russia no matter the cost.
If the situation is a true do or die situation where all diplomacy is off, Russia has to be prepared to do what is necessary because economy or not, once a nation decides to cross the red line in a definitive manner, nothing less then complete victory will deter the west although it would be better if most of damage is focused on the USA since they are the ones that are pushing for a war and is the one that unless you cripple their capacity to make war and have all those responsible for such things be dragged in front of the world and tried for all the crime one can think of and take the appropriate measures to forever deter them from ever going to war (heck executions ought be used on principle for the likes of Nuland, Bolton and even Blinken because they have always argued for war while trying to make themselves look the hero), they simply will not stop with their invasions.
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That what Putin talks about .

No sense to make any movement around Ukraine , possibly not in Europe, it makes more sense to start moves in Syria-Iraq-IRan, or in Cetnral / North america.

Target is to move away the frontline from the border, not to open one next to it.
 
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Anlsvrthng

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As I started to think I getting the feeling the whole "crisis" carefully planned by the Russians, and they are the ones whom playing up the USA against they interest.

1. Gazprom ceased to sell gas on spot market in summer
2. NSA getting information about Russian invasion , sharing it with Europeans
3. Russia moving military units to the border
4. ultimatum from Russia to the USA about the NATO expansion / miltiary units.


Russia managed to move/organise military units in / around Crimea without any hint to the USA, so they should repeat the trick this time as well if they wish. So most likelly they purposfully made a leak to the USA about an "imminent invasion", and the " Czar Putin" obsession of the USA playing for they hand.

At the same time the lack of gas on spot market crating an economical crisis and potentially power and heat distruptions in Europe.

The timing of the treatry request happened in the middle of December, so EU will be forced to make a decision in January/ February, when they could face power outages.


And the basic question will be simple one : they want normal relationship with Russia, or want to live without the Russian energy export.

In this enviroment it is very hard to push for long term energy contract with Russia ,means to stabilise the energy situation the EU must to reach compromise.
 
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Anlsvrthng

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Anlsvrthng said:
As I started to think I getting the feeling the whole "crisis" carefully planned by the Russians, and they are the ones whom playing up the USA against they interest.

1. Gazprom ceased to sell gas on spot market in summer
2. NSA getting information about Russian invasion , sharing it with Europeans
3. Russia moving military units to the border
4. ultimatum from Russia to the USA about the NATO expansion / miltiary units.
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5. Putin making remarks about historycal lands of Russia. NEver done anything like this before.
 
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panzerfeist1

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Ukraine has nothing worth invading for only reason they are upset is that Nordstream 2 will cost them billions of dollars since of course they have quite a bad economy as it is. Was going to go crack an elbow bump joke with Deino saying how are the gas prices in Germany? (where i have a shit-eating grin will he gives me a disappointed look) There is also the Power of Siberia 2 where they will run to China and Mongolia. Thanks to Israels enviromentalists
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by blocking UAE's oil shipments to Europe Israel unknowingly is probably going to help the Russians sell their Arctic oil to Europe. The enviromentalist excuse we all know is BS because Israel has quite the paranoia of its surrounding neighbors for good reasons. They have more gas line projects heading to middle east next.
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They also successfully thwarted the oil pipeline to Europe through Syria and thwarted Venezuela from being taken over by the west.

They are also the ringleaders of starting BRICs to replace SWIFT along with wanting quantum communication channels with those countries discussing trade deals.
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Everything seems to be going according to their plan to the point I ask what is valauble invading Ukraine for? Ukraine is going to be more of a leech to the west despite getting some additional military bases that have to be financially supported. The Ukraine warmongering is mostly pushed by the west while from their side they do not even give a shit about Ukraine. As stated here they have more to gain not invading Ukraine than they do starting an invasion.
 
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