Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

delft said:

It seems to me that Russia is not really concerned with developments in the war going slowly. ...

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one of the reasons could be there's enough trouble in Russia itself: gazeta.ru article just popped up

"Russia Will Roll Downhill"
informing about official (made by

on the assumption of US$50/barrel of oil):
macroeconomic predictions for 2015:

• 3% GDP decrease
• 12% inflation rate
• 9% real-wage decrease

the other reason could be: if Donbass was freed, by locals, from Oligarchs ... then locals in other regions ... I doubt the Kremlin is interested in a Russian Spring (I mean different than "Russian Spring" leading to the Crimea takeover in 2014

Russia is now re-orientating its economy to be less or not dependent on EU or US and that too takes time.

pla101prc said:

at this point war in donbass has morphed into a positional warfare, with emphasis placed on firepower. while there remains an incentive to attack enemy positions, the NAF is no longer required to execute those good ole soviet deep battle maneuvers. the intention is obvious, objectives are clear, and dispositions are fairly transparent, it is now just a matter of pushing the enemy back under the cover of overwhelming volume of fire. logistic here is key, and this is where NAF is likely to get one up over the UAF. notwithstanding claims of ammo shortage, in the end if circumstance dictates the NAF in the debaltseve theatre will find a way to either gather ammo from friendly units elsewhere, or beg for them to be supplied from mother russia, the bottom line being that they can get it if they really want it. the UAF units in the pocket, on the other hand, does not have such luxury. they might still be supplied, but I suspect in very limited volumes and unreliable timings, because of the deteriorating conditions on the only road connecting them with the rear.

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So it all grinds down to a slugging match.
Yes, it not hard to see that 5000 - 8000 trapped in a very small pocket and beyond meaningful resupply will get into difficulty very quickly.
I almost wonder; given the recent examples of the excruciating slowness in collapsing the previous cauldrons if there is a decision not to fully allow the cauldron to close and so allow a bolt hole for the sizeable forces inside, using the strike ability of the NAF artillery to pick off armoured vehicles but letting the infantry more or less to escape?

The sitrep on Colonel Cassad today (yes its back in English at last!) actually paints a picture of up to three mini cauldrons forming, with a southern section at the bottom of the salient, a middle one around Debaltseve itself and a third one in the North below the entrance to the Salient.
Cassad uses the term intestine to describe the road link between the main Kiev strongholds and I know he uses language quite carefully!

On top of that I do wonder if there is a surprise waiting in the wings?

Pushing West and North of Donetsk and North of Lugansk looks like very hard and punishing work. If I were running NAF (or Mr Putin) I would like to be able to make a secondary strike at Mariupol, probably by starting an encirclement to the North and again letting forces inside bolt before being trapped. This would not only capture the city but also take the entire Rural South of Donetsk Region and allow for a very wide flanking attack to head north and start wrapping around the main Kiev positions around Donetsk City.

delft said:

It seems to me that Russia is not really concerned with developments in the war going slowly. Besides other considerations it sees the economy in EU suffering from the sanctions and even more from the wrong-headed monetary policy.There the purpose is to generate more inflation by creating money from hot air while reducing wages. The classic explanation of inflation is the wage-price spiral: people getting more money and spending it before it looses more of its value. If you don't get more money and have debts to pay you won't spend more.
The economy going down fastest is that of Ukraine of course helped by the mobilization of ever more men.
In this environment we get a new Greek government that is recognizing the madness of the current economic policies from which Greece and the other European countries are suffering and that says NO to the EU commission, ECB and IMF and proposes different policies. And they are helped by the prospects of the Spanish elections of next December.
All these things need time.

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regardless of what is happening in Europe or Ukraine, there is no question that Russian economy is suffering. In fact, if your major export partner is having economic issues, you are likely going to have it too. And you can't reduce reliance on exporting to other nations and expect to do better. No matter how tough Russian gov't wants to sound, these economic issues are not going to get solved that easily.

Yes, what goes around, comes around, Mr. Sunshine will face his own day of reckoning, and his own brand of misery will come home to visit. Funny to me how those who denied any Russian involvement in the Ukraine, have now become the cheerleaders of Russia's present involvement? very sad that the Ukrainian people and now the Russian people will bear the brunt of this? TP is right, these things do not go on in a vacuum.

tphuang said:

regardless of what is happening in Europe or Ukraine, there is no question that Russian economy is suffering. In fact, if your major export partner is having economic issues, you are likely going to have it too. And you can't reduce reliance on exporting to other nations and expect to do better. No matter how tough Russian gov't wants to sound, these economic issues are not going to get solved that easily.

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What is both amazing and instructive in this situation, is that the economic misery has affected the entire region, and no one has escaped without hardship, and that is just beginning???

I think it is worth remembering that the Russian/Ukraine border is probably unique in Eurasia where there is no linguistic, ethnic or cultural difference between the people living either side of it. It is simply an old Internal Administrative border of the previous Russian Empire and Soviet Union and ignoring this is simply disingenuous.

The people of East Ukraine have now seen the Governments that they elected removed in coups; supported by NATO member nations, not just once but twice in the last ten years. Only a fool knowingly plays a fixed game and clearly these people have decided there is no point playing a third hand and have decided to leave.

We have indeed as a result of the fighting been drawn into a Pain bearing contest with the Russian people. I can only describe that decision as ludicrous and one that the soft pampered residents of Western Europe will never put up with for any substantial period. Indeed with Mr Putin's carefully crafted retaliation aimed at the Agro economies of Southern Europe, the cracks are already clearly visible and only going to grow.

It does not help that the ultimate cause; maintaining the Atlantasist status quo, is not one that really fires the imagination let alone passion, for the vast majority of Europeans, who frankly, cannot wait to see the post war order consigned to the history books and see something more relevant to generating prosperity in the modern age replace it.

In the meantime, I have found via links on the Saker, a current map which shows the breaking up of the Debaltseve salient, largely along the lines described earlier.

preparing for a pub talk tomorrow I'm afraid about one thing, which is the Ukrainian defenses worked "as advertised" ... what do I mean? from what I figured, two layers were established, backed up by Tactical Reserve units; once the first layer was attacked, a counter-strike could (and often did) follow:

• one successful example: after Separatists had pushed from north-east toward the narrowest part of the Debaltsevo Salient, Troickoye (Троицкое) was taken by Ukrainians (sometime in the middle of this week; point A on this map:
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• much less successful example: Uglegorsk (Углегорск; point Б sorry above) taken after the desperate Separatists' attack (covered by SampanViking https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/ukraine-revolt-civil-war.t7103/page-28#post-325255) and the Azov Batalion was unable to regain it (yesterday)
  
• in both examples, the second layer is in Debaltsevo, and wasn't breached (as I write this ...)

So what's the problem? Now Strategic Reserves would have to be sent there, but I think they won't be.

EDIT
Now I noticed a report

saying the center of Debaltsevo was hit by Grads MLRS ... for the first time ...

Sorry Sampan, but what you wrote is completely not true. So let's start.

SampanViking said:

I think it is worth remembering that the Russian/Ukraine border is probably unique in Eurasia where there is no linguistic, ethnic or cultural difference between the people living either side of it. It is simply an old Internal Administrative border of the previous Russian Empire and Soviet Union and ignoring this is simply disingenuous.

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It's not true. If you know Russian well you can talk with a person talking in Ukrainian but you won't be able to understand it 100%. You'll get what he's talking about and vice versa. And it's a common thing between Slavic countries. A Czech person will more or less know what Polish guy will say, Polish guy will have the same thing with a guy talking Slovak language and Russian guy will surely get the point what the Polish guy will say to him but he won't get 100%. That's how it works. Russian language isn't the same as Ukranian and that's why the're called Russian and Ukrainian in the first place. Period.

SampanViking said:

The people of East Ukraine have now seen the Governments that they elected removed in coups; supported by NATO member nations, not just once but twice in the last ten years. Only a fool knowingly plays a fixed game and clearly these people have decided there is no point playing a third hand and have decided to leave.

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Do you know anyone who lives there? Do you know each one of them? If no then I call this kind of generalisation as propaganda. A pro-Separatist propaganda. Don't talk with big words like 'people of the East Ukraine. You remember how the Separatists started a 'rebel' there? It took 40-50 men who mounted their 'blok-posts' in one 10,000 inhibitants city to claim it. Separatists didn't have to take any of the cities by force. They just claimed and haven't shot a single bullet there. That's how it worked. They didn't have any kind of immense support from people living there. They used propaganda to believe that Ukrainian forces are bad. And it worked. Do you want to know why? Do you remember the tragedy in Odessa when the crowd of right-wing Ukrainians burned people alive? Then the Separatists told the people there that since now it's their territory Ukranians will come there and do the same with them. Would they in reality? No, they wouldn't. Do you remember when the columns of Ukrainian tanks and heavy weaponry started to move there near Donetsk? The Separatists told people - 'you know, that's Ukrainians who started it, we had only Kalashnikovs with us when we came here'. And that's true but told in such a way to scare people living there. Peaceful people who don't want to fight. People who want to get back to their normal life as soon as possible. No matter if it's going to be Ukraine or anything else. They want to go to work, get the paycheck, go fishing or whatever they did earlier. That's all. That's not like all of people there support Separatists. A normal guy living in a home with his family will get upset if Ukrainians/Separatists if they mounted their positions on his posession. He's got wife, kids to care for. He's not interested in any pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian propaganda. He just wants them to leave. And all that soldiers of both sides will tell him is 'We're really sorry, but right now the frontline is here and we can't do anything about it'... And Separatists forces aren't growing. It's still 20-40k forces as it was earlier.
You know what's the point of Ukrainian forces bombarding Donetsk? It's because of the normal people living there. No matter what one side will tell you that they aren't shooting from the city centers or Ukrainians only responding to the Separatist's fire. That's not true. Both sides fire from the city centers and Ukrainians sometimes just start shooting Grads without Separatists starting first. So let's get back to Donetsk. You can take the city by force. You know, infantry taking quarters of the city after quarter and so on. Ukrainians aren't doing that. That's because they know well that without the support of normal people living there the rebel will end without doubt. So they fire. When they fire they might destroy pipeline or water supply lines. People at first will get mad at Ukrainians. But after some time they will get mad at Separatists because after all, it's all their fault that Ukrainian artilery is firing at the city. That's the tactic they chose and I think that's rally bad thing from Ukrainian side. And that's not doing well for the Ukrainian morale when the only thing they do is sit on their a** without firing a single bullet for a month or so. So they start drinking heavily. On both sides. For days. Starting in the morning untill they go to sleep. It's much more severe on Ukrainian side because they hold the positions for a long time while the other side has to be more mobile but that's a problem there as well.

SampanViking said:

We have indeed as a result of the fighting been drawn into a Pain bearing contest with the Russian people. I can only describe that decision as ludicrous and one that the soft pampered residents of Western Europe will never put up with for any substantial period. Indeed with Mr Putin's carefully crafted retaliation aimed at the Agro economies of Southern Europe, the cracks are already clearly visible and only going to grow.

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lol, you write the Greece which doesn't want to give back money which they don't have and they don't want to cut all the social privilages because that's how strong years of EU donations got into their heads that they didn't had to work hard? It's not about Mr Putin but about money and Greece trying their to annoy those who paid their bills for years. They're doing that because of their own needs. Not Ukraine or Russia.

SampanViking said:

So it all grinds down to a slugging match.
Yes, it not hard to see that 5000 - 8000 trapped in a very small pocket and beyond meaningful resupply will get into difficulty very quickly.
I almost wonder; given the recent examples of the excruciating slowness in collapsing the previous cauldrons if there is a decision not to fully allow the cauldron to close and so allow a bolt hole for the sizeable forces inside, using the strike ability of the NAF artillery to pick off armoured vehicles but letting the infantry more or less to escape?

The sitrep on Colonel Cassad today (yes its back in English at last!) actually paints a picture of up to three mini cauldrons forming, with a southern section at the bottom of the salient, a middle one around Debaltseve itself and a third one in the North below the entrance to the Salient.
Cassad uses the term intestine to describe the road link between the main Kiev strongholds and I know he uses language quite carefully!

On top of that I do wonder if there is a surprise waiting in the wings?

Pushing West and North of Donetsk and North of Lugansk looks like very hard and punishing work. If I were running NAF (or Mr Putin) I would like to be able to make a secondary strike at Mariupol, probably by starting an encirclement to the North and again letting forces inside bolt before being trapped. This would not only capture the city but also take the entire Rural South of Donetsk Region and allow for a very wide flanking attack to head north and start wrapping around the main Kiev positions around Donetsk City.

Click to expand...

with UAF defence so well entrenched in mariupol i don't know if that is a viable option in the immediate future. while surrounding the city is possible, it also leaves a very wide frontier to be protected and just invites a counterattack to the north. i personally would favour another ceasefire shortly after debaltseve is fully settled.