Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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I think you only need to look at the craters on the still frame of the video and compare that to the tiny hole near to the bus. They are not made by the same weapon. If a grad had landed next to the bus, in the area of darkened ground, the bus would have been ripped apart, blown to pieces and incinerated, just as we have seen direct hits do to armoured military vehicles.

If I have missed something and there is a large crater nearby, but still about 20 meters away or so, you need to bring it to my attention, as I have seen nothing like in the footage I have viewed.
 
D

delft

Brigadier
About the gas flows, from Bloomberg:
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Russia to Shift Ukraine Gas Transit to Turkey as EU Cries Foul
By Elena Mazneva Jan 14, 2015 8:46 PM GMT+0100

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plans to shift all its natural gas flows crossing Ukraine to a route via
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, a surprise move that the European Union’s energy chief said would hurt its reputation as a supplier.

The decision makes no economic sense, Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission’s vice president for energy union, told reporters today after talks with Russian government officials and the head of gas exporter,
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, in Moscow.

Gazprom, the world’s biggest natural gas supplier, plans to send 63 billion cubic meters through a proposed link under the
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to Turkey, fully replacing shipments via Ukraine, Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller said during the discussions. About 40 percent of Russia’s gas exports to Europe and Turkey travel through Ukraine’s Soviet-era network.

Russia, which supplies about 30 percent of Europe’s gas, dropped a planned link through
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bypassing Ukraine amid EU opposition last year. Russia’s relations with the EU have reached a post-Cold War low over President
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’s support for separatists in Ukraine.

Sefcovic said he was “very surprised” by Miller’s comment, adding that relying on a Turkish route, without Ukraine, won’t fit with the EU’s gas system.

Gazprom plans to deliver the fuel to Turkey’s border with
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and “it’s up to the EU to decide what to do” with it further, according to Sefcovic.
Click to expand...
Very interesting. Brussels invented a law that said that Gazprom as owner of the gas should not own the pipeline so now the Europeans will have to own, and to pay for, the pipelines within the EU. Bulgaria will nor receive the transport payments for South Stream because of the diktat from Brussels. So now the new Greek government to be formed after the elections later this month will have to knuckle under to Brussels or to say we will build the pipeline, receive the payment and will have a haircut of say 75% on our debts. And the Kiev regime will loose. Formally this will happen when the pipeline is completed to the Turkey-Greece border but the building of those pipelines in EU will have to start earlier. Waiting until the gas through Ukraine stops coming is too clearly madness.
 
J

Janiz

Senior Member
SampanViking said:
I think you only need to look at the craters on the still frame of the video and compare that to the tiny hole near to the bus. They are not made by the same weapon.
Click to expand...
Yes they are. Do I have to post how GRAD missile looks like? Do you know how big it is and how it's constructed? Here you go - this is what I call GRAD missile:

q13RAsU.jpg

​
This is what's left after it's detonation and how it hits the ground (notice the angle!):

JrNr5XJ.jpg

​
You should now notice why the 'crater' it leaves is a small hole in the ground with a diameter of the exploding projectile. It might look different (but not for me!) from the others in the video because after detonation on the fields nearby which are plowed in the winter and makes it a pretty light and 'mellow'. It blows up, lots of soil goes into the air and lands on the snow in the direction of the wind just like you see on that video. It's not making a hole in the earth as big as those black spots contrasting with the snow seem to show. TochkaU ballistic missiles make this kind of holes you think about. What GRAD leaves is exactly what you can see on the picture that Jura posted earlier.
SampanViking said:
If a grad had landed next to the bus, in the area of darkened ground, the bus would have been ripped apart, blown to pieces and incinerated, just as we have seen direct hits do to armoured military vehicles.
Click to expand...
Well... nope? Here's a video of GRAD missile exploding near firetruck from 4:03. It destroyed it or not? Because from what I saw it didn't though it's deadly for anyone around the point of explosion.

Armoured military vehicles don't blow up because they were hit by GRAD - it's ammunition inside which blows them up. And Russian/Soviet ones have a pretty solid fame for being easy to make it happen.

Anything else?
 
SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Well some comments
1) The Grad that is the ground in picture 1 looks in good condition and; as the missile and the ground has no scorch marks, simply looks like an unexploded round. I have seen plenty of those sticking out of ground in numerous videos of this conflict

2) The weapon in the crater by the Donetsk Fire Engine looks a lot smaller than a grad, it looks little more than a couple of inches in diameter.
Maybe the tail of an RPG or some other ATGM?

3) The fact remains that there was no Grad sized crater next to the bus and no footage of a missile tail poking out of the ground.

Maybe some others with field experience can examine the "evidence" and give us the benefit of their experience. I remain very unconvinced.
 
SampanViking

SampanViking

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delft said:
About the gas flows, from Bloomberg:
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Very interesting. Brussels invented a law that said that Gazprom as owner of the gas should not own the pipeline so now the Europeans will have to own, and to pay for, the pipelines within the EU. Bulgaria will nor receive the transport payments for South Stream because of the diktat from Brussels. So now the new Greek government to be formed after the elections later this month will have to knuckle under to Brussels or to say we will build the pipeline, receive the payment and will have a haircut of say 75% on our debts. And the Kiev regime will loose. Formally this will happen when the pipeline is completed to the Turkey-Greece border but the building of those pipelines in EU will have to start earlier. Waiting until the gas through Ukraine stops coming is too clearly madness.
Click to expand...

So the Ukraine will lose all its remaining Transit Fee income. Furthermore I suspect that the apatite for "reverse flow" supply from other European countries will evaporate once transit is no longer an issue.

The EU wanted to own the pipeline, now Russia has told them to build all the connecting pipework they want and that they will own (and have to pay for) every meter of it.

Genuinely big news and so naturally largely ignored by the media over here.
 
shen

shen

Senior Member
Janiz said:
Yes they are. Do I have to post how GRAD missile looks like? Do you know how big it is and how it's constructed? Here you go - this is what I call GRAD missile:

q13RAsU.jpg

​
This is what's left after it's detonation and how it hits the ground (notice the angle!):

JrNr5XJ.jpg

​
You should now notice why the 'crater' it leaves is a small hole in the ground with a diameter of the exploding projectile. It might look different (but not for me!) from the others in the video because after detonation on the fields nearby which are plowed in the winter and makes it a pretty light and 'mellow'. It blows up, lots of soil goes into the air and lands on the snow in the direction of the wind just like you see on that video. It's not making a hole in the earth as big as those black spots contrasting with the snow seem to show. TochkaU ballistic missiles make this kind of holes you think about. What GRAD leaves is exactly what you can see on the picture that Jura posted earlier.
Well... nope? Here's a video of GRAD missile exploding near firetruck from 4:03. It destroyed it or not? Because from what I saw it didn't though it's deadly for anyone around the point of explosion.

Armoured military vehicles don't blow up because they were hit by GRAD - it's ammunition inside which blows them up. And Russian/Soviet ones have a pretty solid fame for being easy to make it happen.

Anything else?
Click to expand...

That's not a Grad rocket. Your picture shows a 98m27k prefragmented submunition warhead for the 220mm Uragan system.

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Which btw is only known to be deployed by Ukrainian government force in the current conflict.

From the video, judging by the number and size of impact, the weapon used probably not the 220mm Uragan. But neither Ukraine or Russian are known to deploy prefragmented submunition warhead the 122mm Grad system
 
D

Dannhill

Junior Member
I think this is actually a very fair arrangement for both sides since EU has found so much problems and accusations of Russia being an undependable gas supplier without bothering to consider why Russia has to cut the gas flow moving through Ukraine and which Kiev has been doing pretty serious sipping from.
And EU will not have to live in fear of being held hostage to by Russia since they will now buy their gas from Turkey, a fellow NATO member country. So it's pretty much all in the family. (snigger)
Of course Turkey is the big winner here and they will make a lot of money selling to EU. Russia will wash their hands of politiking headaches.

delft said:
About the gas flows, from Bloomberg:
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Very interesting. Brussels invented a law that said that Gazprom as owner of the gas should not own the pipeline so now the Europeans will have to own, and to pay for, the pipelines within the EU. Bulgaria will nor receive the transport payments for South Stream because of the diktat from Brussels. So now the new Greek government to be formed after the elections later this month will have to knuckle under to Brussels or to say we will build the pipeline, receive the payment and will have a haircut of say 75% on our debts. And the Kiev regime will loose. Formally this will happen when the pipeline is completed to the Turkey-Greece border but the building of those pipelines in EU will have to start earlier. Waiting until the gas through Ukraine stops coming is too clearly madness.
Click to expand...
 
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