Merkel reconnects with Putin, Ukraine in sight
The four-way phone conversation on Monday between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the presidents of Russia, France and Ukraine – Vladimir Putin, Francois Hollande and Petro Poroshenko – marks an interesting, hopeful turn to the Ukraine crisis. The quadripartite forum has agreed to remain in contact to keep the peace process on track.
First and foremost, it comes against the backdrop of the hopeful sign that the ceasefire is holding in eastern Ukraine, finally, which in turn opens the possibility to rev up the implementation of the other provisions of the Minsk accord.
Russia, of course, is particularly keen on the commencement of a political dialogue involving the representatives of the Ukrainian government and the separatists controlling parts of eastern region regarding constitutional reform that will help preserve Ukraine’s unity within a federal structure.
Second, Merkel is back on the scene reconnecting with Putin. They last spoke on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brisbane (November 16-17). Theer has been some rough moments in the Russian-German equations lately and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov even had to gently tick off Berlin once publicly.
Merkel is also facing much criticism in the German opinion for mishandling the relations with Russia. Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has long been an advocate of good German-Russian relations and has been manifestly unhappy about the current drift. Steinmeier has been getting a lot of flak from the German right and the hardline EU countries (Poland and the Baltic states) on this account.
Third, Hollande is increasingly on the driving seat on the European side. He visited Moscow a fortnight ago and would seem to have discussed some formula for easing the Ukraine crisis and thereupon set the ball rolling on reaching a settlement between Europe and Russia.
Most certainly by raising the issue of the Russia sanctions at the EU summit last Thursday, Hollande might have forewarned that it is inconceivable that the sanctions could be extended beyond the stipulated deadline of July, ie., six months ahead. Merkel too would have sensed that time is running out.
Fourth, the phone conversation on Monday took place even as Kazakh President Nurusultan Nazarbayev landed in Kiev. Kazakhstan is Russia’s close ally and quite obviously Nazarabayev went to Kiev on a mediatory mission following a phone conversation with Putin. He would have relayed some message from the Kremlin to Poroshenko.
Nazarbayev is due to meet Putin. At any rate, Poroshenko has just announced that the Ukraine Contact group will meet in Minsk tomorrow.
The thing to watch now will be Washington’s next move to undermine any peace process that might lead to a thaw in Russia’s relations with Europe. The Obama administration comes under pressure to do something quickly, since the renewal of the EU sanctions against Russia beyond July seems increasingly problematic.
The point is, European opinion is resenting America’s overbearing attitude and a recent survey showed that public opinion strongly favors Europe steering an independent foreign policy free of US interference.
Posted in Diplomacy, Politics.
Tagged with New Cold War, Russia sanctions, Ukraine crisis.
By M K Bhadrakumar – December 23, 2014
