When President Trump upended global trade with his “Liberation Day” tariffs last year, China could have seized the moment to win over bewildered U.S. allies and partners with a charm offensive. Instead, it did the opposite. Beijing threatened countries that dared to cooperate with the Trump administration in restricting trade with China. And when China unveiled a plan to choke exports of its critical supplies of rare earths, it targeted the world, not just the United States. It was a high-stakes gamble by President Xi Jinping of China. Rather than provide relief to spurned American allies, Beijing wanted to compound their dilemma, analysts say, so that countries unnerved by Washington would learn that crossing China also carried economic pain. The calculation was that those countries would eventually seek closer ties to China to hedge against the United States, and that when they did so, they would be more accommodating of Beijing’s interests.
That bet is now paying off with the procession of European and Canadian leaders arriving in China seeking to deepen ties with the world’s second-largest economy — even as Beijing has conceded little on the issues that once divided them, like human rights, espionage, election interference and unbalanced trade. (This outreach has drawn a sharp rebuke from Mr. Trump, who
that it was “dangerous” for Britain and Canada to look to China as the answer to their economic woes.) “China chose to accentuate rather than alleviate the pressure on the allies to force them to tilt closer to Beijing’s position,” said
, a researcher at the Brookings Institution who previously worked at the C.I.A. analyzing Chinese politics. “Beijing’s patient policy now seems to be paying dividends.”