Trump 2.0 official thread
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
- Start date
The funny thing is that it wasn't me who commented what you're answering but @plawolf
Wall Street is realizing that 145% tariffs on China,25% tariffs on Canadian/Mexican steel and aluminum along with a global 10% tariffs is still catastrophic. And now we are close to the credit market freezing. The market is telling Trump either to de-escalate or they will force him
to de-escalate. I don’t rule out another bond market fiasco in the coming days. The world knows the bond market is Trumps Achilles heel.
The thing about these memes, they are meant to be jokes, but there is a certain truth in that, what do people actually believe will happen?
You tariff everything and expect to have manufacturing jobs come back for what? For shoes? For clothes? Forget the cost concern, why is it imagined that everyone is champing at the bit for these great factory jobs? It's just false romanticism of halcyon days gone by. These aren't even considered good jobs in China. Just silly thinking...
There are several tweets on X about the US creating and empowering China. I think there were around US$3 trillion in direct investment in China over that time. However, they forget that the relationship between the two countries was one of the main forces of the global economy in the 21st century. American companies benefited from production in Chinese factories that had cheap labor (higher profits), which helped to contain prices for American consumers and increased the profits of large corporations, generating greater income and creating global wealth. Do you have any idea how different and probably poorer the world would be if what happened hadn't happened?
China, in turn, has gained jobs and investment that have lifted millions of people out of poverty. As Chinese purchasing power has grown, a lucrative market has opened up for American brands. It was a win-win situation, where everyone won, including Americans, who ended up gaining a huge standard of living that was the envy of the world, especially in the 2000s. Now all that is coming to an end. The outlook is dire for the global economy.
Dan Wang, director of the China team at Eurasia Group, said that Chinese companies are already looking beyond the US. China plans to export 6 million electric vehicles this year, almost none of which are destined for the United States. According to her, there is a risk of a global recession, but the impact is likely to be greater in the US. Three months ago, the International Monetary Fund projected that the US economy would outperform other major economies. Now, many analysts see a risk of recession in the US. After Trump imposed widespread tariffs, forecasts point to more inflation, unemployment and a slowdown.
The American economic scenario could change and reverse everything they have achieved over the years. The standard of living could plummet at the same rate it has grown in these 30 years of globalization. Returning to industrial production of lower value-added items is a totally impractical measure and if it is implemented in order to restore American "greatness", the word inflation will be in the economic news every day in the future.
China isn't even picking up their calls, there's no way to de-escalate even if everyone in America wants to. This is the point where Americans learn they can't just walk back aggression if it doesn't work, it's time Americans learned there are consequences and punishments.
Cartel gonna smuggle crappy Temu trinkets instead of fentanyl now?
The problem for Trump is if his "1 week special tariff operation" becomes a full blown economical war that last multiple years. If China think this as a attempted economical strike especially with all the maga bragging about how they are going to force the world to decouple with China thru tarrif relief, they may just take on the economic battle now to cause as much pain.
Another great primer on the current advantages China has over the U.S. trade situation and why the U.S. is going the wrong strategy with regards on trying to balance their so-called trade deficit when the focus should and must be on its crumbling and inadequate infrastructures that make costs higher therefore less competitive overall.
Here's Qinduo Xu (CGTN anchor) and now a scholar at a Chinese think tank explains:
Here's Qinduo Xu (CGTN anchor) and now a scholar at a Chinese think tank explains:
I mean, if you look at China's actions over the last 3 years, especially with export controls, China probably wants an economic war, or at least has no desire to prevent one. Now that US bond market has spoken and China has a shot at actually cripple the entire US dollar system, and China already been prepared for a conflict, it's not in China's interest to stop.
IMO China should make sure Trump doesn't fold and keep increasing tariff to 200% or 400%, I know from my work that if you can't replace Chinese suppliers at 100% tariff, you can't at 200% or 400% either, but for American companies 100% tariff is a hit to bottom line, a big hit but just a hit, whereas 400% is death.