Trump 2.0 official thread

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Well should there ever be an end to the US-Japan alliance, survival would be of upmost importance for Tokyo, so nuclear weapon would be the only option. Given the examples of NK and China in the 1960s, no amount of sanctions would stop a determined pursuer of nukes even at the cost of great economic hardship. That leaves a majour all-out war the only option (and even without US involvement, countries like India and Australia would likely join Japan in a last ditched effort to weaken China geopolitically) except China would have no choice but becoming the aggressor this time around. The most troubling scenario for China would be if the US were to decide to terminate its alliance with Japan whilst guaranteeing a nuclear umbrella for Japan up to the day when Japan’s nukes enters LOW status.
It's not as big a deal as you think, no matter how it goes. North Korea has nukes but it has absolutely no intent to use them against the US/West no matter what they do except for outright invasion or first nuclear strike. If Japan were to obtain nukes, it would be the same; it makes them feel secure but they would not dare strike against China no matter what China did other than outright invasion or nuclear strikes on Japan. China is a juggernaut of a country, teeming with nukes, with city megastructures built to withstand nuclear war and no desire to invade Japan regardless of what Japan thinks. So the only way a nuclear Japan will survive is to hold their nukes and shut up about it. China can push them as hard as the US can push North Korea (without Russia and China) and expect no nuclear threat.
 
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