Trump 2.0 official thread

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Did China really agree to resume rare earth exports to the US in exchange for the US continuing to let in Chinese students, but didn't get any relief on EDA tools, Comac, Ascend or any export controls? If so, that is a terrible and bad deal for China.
Cite your source; I suspect you got it from the same vault you keep your the-US-can-time-travel-China-is-screwed freakouts. The articles I see just say that Trump called Xi and Xi told Trump to go back to talking to his trade negotiators.
Omg yall falling for the PR stunt between Trump and Elon.

Elon realized that his involvement with Trump politics is destroying Tesla sales.

So he stages this PR stunt with Trump. Pretending there’s beef between the two. Make a big splash out of it hoping liberals would buy teslas again.
LOL You think Trump's smart enough to pretend to do anything? The only thing Trump might be pretending to be is a US president when he's actually a Russian agent. You are looking at a 16 year old blind dog with 3 teeth left, a broken leg, rabies and mange rhythmically knocking his skull on a steel cage ready to die in the shelter and you're saying, "He's really smart. He's pretending to be injured so the keeper will come and check on him but be caught off guard when the dog bites the security tag off his lanyard and uses it to open the gate, sprinting out the door to freedom."
 
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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Did China really agree to resume rare earth exports to the US in exchange for the US continuing to let in Chinese students, but didn't get any relief on EDA tools, Comac, Ascend or any export controls? If so, that is a terrible and bad deal for China.
You know how I know that's not what happened? Knowing Trump's personality and his need to show achievement in recent weeks do you think if an agreement like that happened Trump would be able to keep it under wrap instead of gathering all the media to him and publicly announce it?
 

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Here's my take: The RE export control is not really a counter measure in the trade war, instead it is a fundamental policy change going forward. Trade war is just an excuse so the optics look like China was justifiably retaliating rather than unitarily trying to kill US industry.

China knows US is preparing for war in the near term, especially when the so called "2027" date gets peddled more and more frequently by US officials. US knows the window to win a war with China is closing soon if not closed already, this is their hail marry chance to try to win.

RE control will seriously hamper US's ability to stockpile weapons and munitions in the following years, the US maybe (Biiiiig if) able to shore up their own RE refineries in a decade or so. By then the crisis moment is long gone. Killing the US industry just happens to be collateral damage.

If this theory is right then we will not see RE export control lifted any time soon, even if Trump capitulate fully
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here's my take: The RE export control is not really a counter measure in the trade war, instead it is a fundamental policy change going forward. Trade war is just an excuse so the optics look like China was justifiably retaliating rather than unitarily trying to kill US industry.

China knows US is preparing for war in the near term, especially when the so called "2027" date gets peddled more and more frequently by US officials. US knows the window to win a war with China is closing soon if not closed already, this is their hail marry chance to try to win.

RE control will seriously hamper US's ability to stockpile weapons and munitions in the following years, the US maybe (Biiiiig if) able to shore up their own RE refineries in a decade or so. By then the crisis moment is long gone. Killing the US industry just happens to be collateral damage.

If this theory is right then we will not see RE export control lifted any time soon, even if Trump capitulate fully
Concur. Certain RE restrictions especially on specific elements crucial for specific weapons should not be lifted no matter what imo, other elements with broader importance to western civilian industries may be lifted if appropriate.
 

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Concur. Certain RE restrictions especially on specific elements crucial for specific weapons should not be lifted no matter what imo, other elements with broader importance to western civilian industries may be lifted if appropriate.

Pretty much all RE is involved in weapons. China may play nice with Japan and EU and let them have some but shipments and destination and final use will be rigorously monitored to prevent them going to US. This kind of measures is being done right now, this shows China is serious and this is not going to be a short term thing
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Hypothetically if Trump invites Xi to Mars A Lago for in-depth negotiation, should he go?

Xi Jinping should not do that would be my cheap 2 cents.

However, this is a shocking and important development, in my humble opinion. What a reversal!

Do not even know what to think of this, but it was clearly going the other way, and I really thought war could be coming for the Taiwan Straits, after all, nothing else holding it back. Now the whole situation has changed.

From China's standpoint, well, they kind already made their point. A near financial crisis with a bond collapse, probably some empty shelves this summer, a temporary stoppages in production, all set in motion from Liberation Day. Whoever was advising President Trump, they were a complete idiot, and should be fired.

The official Chinese position, expressed by Wang Yi was 奉倍到底 which is not exactly an aggressive arrangement of four Chinese characters. It could be neutral or sarcastic. Play mean, and we play mean. Play nice, and we play nice. To me, that is how educated the Chinese leadership are. What they say, comes to pass.

Not only Trump got that phone call with Xi, but an invitation to visit China again as head of state. That is going to be bigly!
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Not only Trump got that phone call with Xi, but an invitation to visit China again as head of state. That is going to be bigly!

The phone call, was not a sure thing. Who knows if the Chinese even wanted to deal with the Americans.

But now, Trump will visit China. Imagine today Zelensky visiting Russia, or Putin visits some European capital. That is not going to happen. This visit is big.

What does China get out of it?

Not much, it does buy time, for maybe the EUV machine to appear. If Trump is coming to China for a visit later, then the Americans will not go too crazy with the stuff they are doing.

Furthermore, the objective facts remain the same, and the CCP feels that Taiwan is not an pressing problem at the moment, the trade war has the trade surplus over $1 trillion so let's not talk about that, and in the tech war kind of obvious China is very much in the game to make a long story short. Even China will not gain much, they lose nothing if Trump comes on a state visit.

What Trump gets out of visiting China, seems much more interesting.

1.
He had to flip the script after that trilateral meeting of ASEAN-Chian-GCC where it was all smiles and positive feelings for the future, then Hegseth shows up two weeks later in the same neighbourhood at that security conference demanding more military buildups in case of war!

So after making plans for the future, these same ASEAN countries are told they must fear the boogieman.

Everyone can see this is a losing strategy, expect for the lying Liberal media and the neo-cons and the Altantits.

Trump had to flip the script or see America become more irrelevant, which meant his statue lessens.

2.
America and China making deals. Who is left out? Exactly, the Europeans were upset the last time, and they will not exactly like it this time.

However, this time, seems like there is far more at stake. The drums of war are beating in Europe, something I have never heard in my life. Before WW1, some Englishman famously wrote that the lights were going out in Europe. Today, it has that same feel. It is going in that direction/

Now, what if Trump decides, screw this, go fight your own war, America too busy making deals with China and the region?

Suddenly, if this is the message, the war drums would be not as loud.

Going to China, Trump creates leverage for America over Europe. The applies for China visa-vis Europe. Trump is not interest in an Europe WW3.

3.
There are rumours or maybe that is just how it works in Washington DC, that President Trump really is not in full control of his administration.

That could be the case.

Trump like Putin. Then who ordered the assassination attempt on his helicopter? Now that is awkward if they have to speak to each other sometime in the future.

Who ordered the hit? Who ordered the attack on Russia nuclear assets, the bombers they stored out in the open to compile still with a treaty with the Americans?

We do not know.

What we do know, President Trump said today that there will be no problem with Chinese students coming to America to study, it would be an honour to have them. That is apparent what was in the public record. By saying that, and saying he will visit China, President Trump rebukes his Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense, telling people who is still boss.

So that blowup today with Geekdom nation's Superhero Elon Musk could be all WWF.

:D:oops:
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Did China really agree to resume rare earth exports to the US in exchange for the US continuing to let in Chinese students, but didn't get any relief on EDA tools, Comac, Ascend or any export controls? If so, that is a terrible and bad deal for China.
Actually US agreed to remove all restrictions on China in exchange for Xi picking up this call and nothing more.
I read it somewhere trust me.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Concur. Certain RE restrictions especially on specific elements crucial for specific weapons should not be lifted no matter what imo, other elements with broader importance to western civilian industries may be lifted if appropriate.
Restrictions on RE export are sanction and national security based and are part of a framework established long before Trump came to power, they're also global. The west also has nothing to exchange, China already solved the chip problem while the west has no solution for RE anytime soon.

It's also not a ban, 1/3 of applications with proper compliance and tracing procedures are being approved, its just that 2/3 being held up is already enough to shut down factories. Per EU automakers China is basically demanding unlimited access to all corporate data including IP, some are complying, some are not, that's just how it is.

This is about more than America and there's nothing Trump can do other than instruct US companies to comply with Chinese requirements, Trump's own post said he now understand it's a complex issue, no more.
 
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