Trump 2.0 official thread

[BillRamengod]

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The New York Times published an investigative report revealing why the Trump administration and the U.S. military abruptly halted strikes against the Houthis and declared victory.

Spoiler: TL;DR

• General Kurilla of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) recommended to Trump that airstrikes be used to eliminate the Houthis' air defenses and command structure. However, after months of airstrikes, the U.S. military suffered consecutive losses of MQ-9B drones and F/A-18 fighter jets, while F-16s and F-35s narrowly avoided being hit—causing close calls that left U.S. forces in cold sweat.
• The airstrikes failed to cripple the Houthis' air defenses or take out their leadership.The Houthis continue to launch ballistic missiles at Israel.
• Large stockpiles of Patriot and THAAD missiles, along with munitions reserves, were diverted to the Middle East—severely depleting strategic stockpiles in Asia.

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[TK3600]

Are they admitting FA-18 is shot down? If it were random accident, why not keep at it?

 

[Wrought]

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The New York Times published an investigative report revealing why the Trump administration and the U.S. military abruptly halted strikes against the Houthis and declared victory.

Spoiler: TL;DR

• General Kurilla of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) recommended to Trump that airstrikes be used to eliminate the Houthis' air defenses and command structure. However, after months of airstrikes, the U.S. military suffered consecutive losses of MQ-9B drones and F/A-18 fighter jets, while F-16s and F-35s narrowly avoided being hit—causing close calls that left U.S. forces in cold sweat.
• The airstrikes failed to cripple the Houthis' air defenses or take out their leadership.The Houthis continue to launch ballistic missiles at Israel.
• Large stockpiles of Patriot and THAAD missiles, along with munitions reserves, were diverted to the Middle East—severely depleting strategic stockpiles in Asia.

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F-35 near miss is an interesting detail. Wonder if the Houthis got lucky or US pilots were careless. Maybe both.

 

[lcloo]

What is the meaning of ad valorem on tariif deal between China and USA?

Machine answer:-
An **ad valorem tariff** is a tax imposed on imported goods based on their value, rather than a fixed amount per unit. In the recent **US-China tariff deal**, the two countries agreed to lower reciprocal tariff rates to **10% for 90 days**, with the **final US tariff rate on Chinese goods set at 30%**. This means that the tariff is calculated as a percentage of the value of the imported goods rather than a flat fee per item.

The agreement marks a significant shift in trade relations, as both sides had previously imposed much higher reciprocal tariffs—peaking at **125%**—before deciding to ease tensions. The **10% ad valorem tariff** is now the **minimum baseline tariff** that the US applies to all trade partners. China has also agreed to suspend or remove certain **non-tariff countermeasures** it had imposed on US imports.

This temporary reduction is intended to facilitate further negotiations and potentially lead to a broader trade agreement. If no further deal is reached within the **90-day period**, the tariff rate could revert to previous levels.


How to determine the value of the goods? (Normally an exporter sells at CIF price or FOB price, majority however sold at FOB prices because insurance and freights can fluctuate due to political conflcits or war, or demand and supply of ships. FOB price on goods sold is excluding freight and insurance)

The value of goods for **ad valorem tariffs** is typically determined using the **CIF value**—which includes the **cost of the goods, insurance, and freight**. This ensures that the tariff reflects the total expense incurred to bring the goods into the importing country.

Here’s how it works:
- **Transaction Value**: The price actually paid for the goods when sold for export.
- **Customs Valuation**: Adjustments may be made based on transportation, insurance, and other charges up to the point of entry.
- **World Trade Organization (WTO) Guidelines**: Many countries follow WTO rules to ensure fair valuation.

For example, if a shipment has a CIF value of **$10,000** and the tariff rate is **8%**, the importer would pay **$800** in tariffs.

 

[horse]

I suspect that if the REM export controls are going to be removed, it would be de-emphasized and implemented under the table. Chinese domestic social media is in a furor over this announcement because it's seen as a capitulation by China, having the REM control removals additionally explicitly announced would cause an uproar.

In practice, 30% tariffs is extremely high (though the discourse around 145% tariffs have superficially cognitively primed people to view it as somehow insignificant when in material terms, the difference is not huge). Getting this agreement is a "success" for China on technical terms though it does entrench all these artificial Trump 2 tariffs as the new normal. 30% is catastrophically high, but not apocalyptically high - meaning that many US export oriented sectors in China will be able to scrape by rather than collapse (though the de minimis cancellation doesn't seem to be reversed at this moment).

The issue lies in perception. Getting slapped with 30% from the adversary and having your own side reduce retaliation to an unreciprocal 10% is bound to be spun by the Trump government as a PR win. We should be past the point in time where China still allows the US to make these kind of face-saving agreements and the bilateral relationship should have been developed to be in a position of tit-for-tat equality by now.

The Chinese side should be faulted for its messaging. Getting the entirety of society cognitively primed for a protracted economic war and total decoupling while suddenly presenting everyone with the fair accompli of an agreement is one thing (encountering this kind of whiplash is actually exasperatingly common in PRC history like the US normalization process in the 70s) but the negotiators at this talk were literally making public statements saying that "these are just preliminary talks and not to expect an agreement" during their intermission break.

Going from a stance of "never surrender" and "China emboldens the rest of the world through its example" to suddenly binding itself to - what seems on the surface as - an unreciprocal agreement like this along with the inevitable Western media and White House spin about how the 30% vs 10% differential means "China was desperate after all" is bound to be messy. For Trump and the US media, this will undoubtedly be spun (as the stock market reaction shows) as a win that will compel other countries to come to the table for tariff negotiations.

For China, pulling these kinds of moves damages domestic confidence that one's individual position aligns with that of the country's. There are still articles on Guancha by authors telling people to expect a "protracted war" and "no agreements" published immediately on their feed directly below this announcement's. Once again, Chinese domestic media is likely going to fall in a position of never taking any strong stances and perpetually hedging because no one can predict their country's position won't suddenly change.

More importantly, this agreement shows that China is not prepared for an economic showdown with the US or its hegemony at this time. This was a rare opportunity for decoupling on entirely Chinese terms where the US culpability means that China could not be blamed for any measures it took in response. It would have been undoubtedly painful but it would have forced Chinese economic production to undergo the cold turkey-style painful transition to internal circulation and Global South reorientation with the least amount of resentment towards the government through the US having unambiguously incited the entire confrontation and firing the first shot.

Whether based on top level assessments of the material conditions of China's economic dependency on the US or just lobbying pressures within the CPC, it shows that China is still constrained by its reliance on the existing economic order.

You kidding?

This is the biggest geopolitical win for China over America since the Vietnam War ended.

Note that these geopolitical developments may not yield observable results immediately.

Make no mistake, things have changed.

 

[horse]

The fact that China even allowed America to do that is the biggest win US could ever have made.

Over this weekend, see clearly see that the Indians and Americans are using the same strategy.

Declare a big win!

Then shut up!

Now if anyone should question it inside their country, that would mean they are unpatriotic!

Double shut up!

So much winning!

That is why they are dancing in the streets celebrating.

Oh brother.

 

[horse]

The stock market will rally over fake headlines lol.

The stock market was going to rally, before all the silliness started.

After Liberation Day, where President Trump attacked the whole, the markets were melting down.

It was really 50/50 a chance for another financial panic like it was in 2008. It was that bad.

But, when the bond market appeared to be ready to give in and collapse, President Trump relented with the initial 90 day pause.

After that, it was a showdown between the United States and China.

My feeling was that lasted about two weeks, then it kind of did not matter anymore.

The ASEAN+3 signed a rather significant agreement, with countries putting the money where their mouth is, funding a credit fund for regional emergencies. There are people who do not trust the dollar or the Americans.

Regardless of the US and China showdown, ASEAN+3 still would have done their deal.

Anyways, why the market will go up, is that Trump is still a protectionist, and the money will be flowing into US companies and invested in the United States.

Then with a declining dollar, a way to inflate out of their debts, profits will be higher due to inflation.

The balance sheet is worth more. Therefore, those US companies are worth more.

The stock market will go, not because of real or fake headlines, it will go up for the reasons listed about.

Obviously there are more, but I still maintain this is a rally of everything, at this junction of world history.

 

[Captainquirk]

Total weight of tariffs is actually around 43% if you include preexisting tariffs from prior years.

43% tariff is a win for America. No empty shelves. No substantial price increases for consumers since Chinese suppliers will eat a portion of the tariffs. Revenue for the Treasury -$16B from April.

To see America suffer China should’ve stuck with no deal. Empty shelves remember.

Some U.S. OEMs like Topo Athletics have already reported that their Chinese suppliers will eat some of the tariffs.

 

[Xiongmao]

Total weight of tariffs is actually around 43% if you include preexisting tariffs from prior years. Still substantial.

I thinks damage already donezo, even if tariff were now 0%. for example see ASEAN rudders are already turning, so the rest will follow.

 

[Captainquirk]

I thinks damage already donezo, even if tariff were now 0%. for example see ASEAN rudders are already turning, so the rest will follow.

For sure. But decoupling will take time.