Trump 2.0 official thread

[lcloo]

Official news from China. I believe the socalled deal agreed upon is that both sides have agreed on the frame work of negotiation, and for more talks in future.

Don't expect any meaningful reduction of Tariff in just 2 days, they will have to have more meetings and will take a long time to reach a deal.

The key words from China is Mutual Respect, Equality and Mutual Benefits, not reduction of tariff in XX%.

Chinese official: China-U.S. talks based on mutual respect, equality, mutual benefit​

China04:42, 12-May-2025
CGTN, Updated 09:56, 12-May-2025

04:09

Li Chenggang, the international trade representative with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and vice commerce minister, on Sunday described the two-day China-U.S. high-level meeting on economic and trade affairs in Geneva as candid, in-depth and constructive.
Speaking at a press conference following the conclusion of the talks, Li said China and the U.S. conducted the talks based on mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, and in a professional and efficient manner.

Both sides have accommodated each other's concerns, and created conditions for a stable, sound and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations, he said.

 

[Overbom]

I think Trump will unilaterally announce reduction of tariffs imposed on Chinese imports.

Stock market is going up on US open

 

[AssassinsMace]

Yes just remember Trump ended NAFTA for his version and now he went after Canada and Mexico dissatisfied with the agreement he arranged. Earlier they said they were expecting China to fulfil the Phase One agreement. Trump didn't show any sign of dropping tariffs then hence why no Phase One agreement. Has Trump learned his lesson from his tariff turmoil he set upon the world? I doubt it. Gotta thank Trump though for exposing how vulnerable the US is in reality. It's what was best for the world to know and feel the truth.

I was watching Rahm Emanuel on CNN this morning. Of course he was spinning acting like the Democrats weren't attempting the same thing Trump tried to do except not as fast. Like if the US had time to decouple from China, it would've been different? China sits at that sweet spot where it's too expensive for the West to do and cost too much and don't have the skills for for rest of the world to do as an alternative for the West. China does a service for the world making things at a less expensive cost. The West would not be as rich as they are having everything cost more if they did it while having things for the rest of the world that were once only luxuries available in the West.

 

[HighGround]

Yes just remember Trump ended NAFTA for his version and now he went after Canada and Mexico dissatisfied with the agreement he arranged. Earlier they said they were expecting China to fulfil the Phase One agreement. Trump didn't show any sign of dropping tariffs then hence why no Phase One agreement. Has Trump learned his lesson from his tariff turmoil he set upon the world? I doubt it. Gotta thank Trump though for exposing how vulnerable the US is in reality. It's what was best for the world to know and feel the truth.

Does a bully “learn” something when he bullies someone? Trump is not a statesman. He’s a complete narcissist. He didn’t go after Mexico and Canada because of any real grievance or inherent flaw in USMCA. He went after them because that’s what he campaigned on, and he campaigned on these issues because the voters responded positively to such ideas.

Trump conducts policy for the purpose of “success”. Once you understand that, all of his actions become coherent.

I was watching Rahm Emanuel on CNN this morning. Of course he was spinning acting like the Democrats weren't attempting the same thing Trump tried to do except not as fast. Like if the US had time to decouple from China, it would've been different? China sits at that sweet spot where it's too expensive for the West to do and cost too much and don't have the skills for for rest of the world to do as an alternative for the West. China does a service for the world making things at a less expensive cost. The West would not be as rich as they are having everything cost more if they did it while having things for the rest of the world that were once only luxuries available in the West.

US elites and policy makers (note; NOT Trump) are stuck in a hard spot. We are correctly concerned about the inability of United States to match China’s capacity for military production and technological development. At the same time, we’ve waited far too long to actually “knee-cap” China. Decoupling now would basically create a very deep recession that can set us even further behind China. This is why Trump had to basically find ideological extremists to actually go through with this insane tariff war.

This is also why Biden’s approach had general institutional support. Everybody in D.C. agrees that China must be “dealt with”, but nobody wants to take actual big swings that could destroy the economy.

The best hope for United States, is that Trump realizes what a giant shit-show this will be in a few months and he will want to walk it back. Yeah, Trump is very reluctant to walk back anything if he can't make himself look good doing it. However in this case, Trump might be more scared of being humiliated as the POTUS that put US in a recession and completely destroyed the US hegemony. In addition to that, if things gets so bad that there is a real bi-partisan effort to take tariff power away from Trump, that’ll humiliate him even more.

the fear of a colossal failure is what might make Trump walk his trade war back, as bad as that will look it’s better than the alternative.

 

[TK3600]

Official news from China. I believe the socalled deal agreed upon is that both sides have agreed on the frame work of negotiation, and for more talks in future.

Don't expect any meaningful reduction of Tariff in just 2 days, they will have to have more meetings and will take a long time to reach a deal.

The key words from China is Mutual Respect, Equality and Mutual Benefits, not reduction of tariff in XX%.

Chinese official: China-U.S. talks based on mutual respect, equality, mutual benefit​

China04:42, 12-May-2025
CGTN, Updated 09:56, 12-May-2025

04:09

Li Chenggang, the international trade representative with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and vice commerce minister, on Sunday described the two-day China-U.S. high-level meeting on economic and trade affairs in Geneva as candid, in-depth and constructive.
Speaking at a press conference following the conclusion of the talks, Li said China and the U.S. conducted the talks based on mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, and in a professional and efficient manner.

Both sides have accommodated each other's concerns, and created conditions for a stable, sound and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations, he said.

China said did not announce any tariff reduction because per agreement the announcement will be joint next day.

I believe something substantial will go through, because otherwise China would not go in first place.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Jumping ahead with what Congress may or may not do. Let’s come to an agreement first. Both sides open up. Cooperate. Share. Invest.

Iron out the details gradually. That’s the dream scenario between US and China.

Nothing's going to iron out past how any Chinese company can trust Trump. Anything gotten from him will be upfront and no long term commitments (building factories, moving production to the US, etc...) from us will be made or honored.

Mutual opening up, cooperating, sharing, investing is not going to happen because even Trump knows that China will decimate the US in open fair competition. China's trade surplus with the US will balloon further because after this, both Chinese and American consumers will try to avoid the products of the other country, but the Americans will have no choice because they buy their necessities from China, through conglomerate manufacturing decisions while basically everything imported into China from the US is an easily-identifiable luxury that can be shunned at will. The whole reason that someone like Trump can be elected in the US is frustration at how China can make progress so much fast and grow from a dirt poor third world country into a peer competitor of the US while under Western first mover advantage suppression. If he wants to remove it for mutual opening up to compete against an already modernized China, he has really jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire, or rather, China has pulled him out of the frying pan and into the fire with these negotiations which he entered with an economy in recession against a Chinese one in robust growth.

if Trump’s team offers that deal, China is not going to say no.

What deal? LOL What you said was so murky it only qualifies for further discussion, not even a yes or no answer. And just like during Trump's first term, we can say yes, then do no. That's what a person like Trump deserves.

 

[broadsword]

I think Trump will unilaterally announce reduction of tariffs imposed on Chinese imports.

Stock market is going up on US open

What is there's none?

 

[antiterror13]

What is there's none?

If there is none, the market is going down (again) ... but I don't think Trump can afford that, too much risk of revolt in the US when there is nothing to buy

 

[Mt1701d]

Jumping ahead with what Congress may or may not do. Let’s come to an agreement first. Both sides open up. Cooperate. Share. Invest.

Iron out the details gradually. That’s the dream scenario between US and China.

if Trump’s team offers that deal, China is not going to say no.

Even if Trump offers, I don’t think China will simply go for it, the problem is Trump have already done this once with phase 1, they agreed on a deal and Trump went back on it by applying tariffs via another reason.

So unless the deal involves the US giving up the right to apply anymore tariff regardless of the situation I don’t think any deal is likely. Simply opening the economy won’t help the US in general, it will just return us to the status quo, and only benefit the megacorps.

I can see Chinese companies investing in the US, but those will only be companies that are further down in the pecking order, or companies that have full vertical integration so they can adjust supply chains on their own rather than having their chains be held by others.

The whole JV situation is also highly possible, but you will also run into the problem of supply chains unless the US exempt these JVs from the tariffs, it would be pointless to enter a JV to produce in the US. Building the supply chain will take time as well as investment from the US side on their infrastructure, importing the equipment with tariffs will make the upfront capital ridiculously high. So unless the US is willing, at least to drop tariffs for heavy equipment, I don’t see this happening.

I can see the Chinese basically use this opening up to wait Trump out. Investing massive capital in the mean time is possible but it would depend on the sector and what the actual investment involves. For example, have say Huawei invest in AI chip production in the US, I can see that possibly happening but only if the US is going to approve it. General investment in production in the US, frankly I don’t see that happening.

 

[jiajia99]

I am extremely skeptical that anything long term will be built. The US establishment is full of China hawks. People like Rubio stalled the Ford-CATL project for example.

Trump doesn’t have any ideological allegiance so you can make a deal with him. However, he’s gone in a few short years. In my opinion, China has likely agreed to talks and negotiation to appear like the reasonable party. However, I believe that China does not expect anything long term and substantive either, so they’re prepared for any negotiations and deals to go up in flames at any moment.

United States is an unreliable actor. We are in a state of social, political, and ideological turmoil.

I believe China would’ve done this as yet another delay tactic while making themselves look good. The longer they delay whilst chipping away at the USA (remember that the US supply chains have been rattled enough to cause Trump some serious worry and the damages are likely there to stay), the better Chinas outlook will be. Ultimately, as long has China doesn’t lose too much compared to the USA (I mean tariffing the entire world is going to do some serious damage to the international image of the USA that will not heal any time soon), China can be satisfied with the current situation while building itself up against in case the USA tries again later down the track like it always happens. This is an ongoing hybrid war and the last one standing will be the victor, all China needs to do is to be that man standing while losing as little as possible. How or when China chooses to secure victory will be ultimately up to China