Trump 2.0 official thread

[zhangjim]

The worst kind of insult is when someone tries to insult your intelligence. Here's an idea Mr. Bessent, if you want to industrialize, good luck with that but do it on your own.

I just saw a topic discussing the possibility of Musk facing 'elimination'. There is a saying that left a deep impression on me: being a bad person requires ability, but being a stupid pig does not.

Trump is a symptom of rather than the cause of the decline of Pax Americana.

Musk's political investment is clearly a failure as his disagreements with MAGA cannot be resolved. Trump will obviously abandon him without hesitation.

You're absolutely right. MAGA represents the most arrogant, barbaric, and ignorant side of America. They've enjoyed Pax America for too long.
The future of the United States is worth worrying about because Trump and MAGA have shown us the current state of America: foolish, arrogant, and destructive.

 

[nativechicken]

Am I right, those are the reasons the production capacity of South Korea and Japan cannot be further expanded?

Massive highly-skilled professional workforce (currently, both South Korea and Japan face shortages of shipbuilding workers).
Low-cost raw materials (steel, specialty materials).
Vast variety of industrial components (high-quality and cost-effective).
Efficiency in shipbuilding (inefficiency leads to high costs; delayed deliveries would incur catastrophic penalties—shipbuilding contracts mandate strict deadlines, with daily penalties starting at hundreds of thousands of USD per day of delay).
Specialized vessels and small-tonnage ships can only be produced by China, or only China can manufacture them at costs that align with current maritime shipping expenses.
Therefore, excluding Chinese shipbuilding is utterly impossible—freight costs would multiply. China now produces all types of maritime vessels, while Japan and South Korea combined cannot fully cover all categories. For example, Japan and South Korea have never built 100,000-ton aircraft carriers or large high-tech cruise ships. Behind these industrial feats lies an exceptionally long and ultra-efficient industrial supply chain. If China ceases to provide these capabilities, Japan, South Korea, the U.S., and Europe would need at least 10 years to rebuild such a system and refine the required technologies. Crucially, STEM talent shortages plague the U.S., Europe, Japan, South Korea, and India—many fields already lack both talent pools and engineering expertise. Relying on novice designers would result in unstable products (industrial products require long iteration cycles, typically 10-15 years of refinement). Once deployed commercially, failure rates during operation would inflict devastating losses on shipowners.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1915067282276942004

Dumbest win I can imagine: "We jacked up the market for a while and China should come to the table in a few years or we'll leave it to the next POTUS"

Trump is begging for China to give him an off ramp.
They really couldn't believe China infact want them to die.

Schrodinger's Trump.

 

[burritocannon]

delete

 

[horse]

Trump did drop tariff on 1/3 of imports last week, China didnt even respond symbolically.

I dont think a lot of people have mentally adjusted to the reality that China has already wrote America off.

Yeah, exactly.

Once those tariffs went to over 100% on both sides, that meant a total trade embargo by both sides on the other.

In short, trading with each other was over.

That is decoupling, that is what the Americans wanted, and the Chinese finally gave up and said the hell with it. This is still business, and sometimes in business, it does not work out, and you walk away.

The Chinese walked away.

Personally speaking, I mentally checked, it was over. It was clearly over.

The good thing, was that it was a clean divorce.

But, maybe it is not a divorce yet. In divorce proceedings in the real world, from what I understand, both parties have to sign the papers. China signed and already out the door. But the Americans won't sign!

WTF?

I though that was what they wanted?

 

[horse]

Americans are so used to being on the attack and worse case scenario is going home if their attack fails, they're mentally and physically unprepared for the current reality where China is on the offence, that China is the one who want to decouple, China is the one who want to de-dollarize, China is the one who wants to cut trade, and the only way out is their explicit and irreversible geopolitical defeat

Yeah, that really surprised me this time.

This entire tariff nonsense, has turned into a massive geopolitical win.

So massive, I cannot even believe it myself.

The Americans have been exposed as having nothing in terms of how to take on China.

All the proof we need, was how China threaten anybody who would work alongside the Americans in their negotiations to isolate China economically.

The European Union, Japan, and even Vietnam voiced opposition that they will sacrifice their China trade to get a deal with the Americans.

Whatever the Americans thought about their allies, in reference to taking on China together, that is shot to shit.

The pressure Trump exerted onto everybody, made people crack, and the truth comes out, of what they were really thinking.

Containment of China? No thanks!

The EU, Japan, even Vietnam, all rejected such lets economically contain China overtures in a span of a couple of days.

The fog of trade war.

 

[horse]

Have you watched the video?
You don’t understand one thing: the production capacity of South Korea and Japan cannot be further expanded. There are no additional industrial capabilities, a lack of more shipyards and domestic component supply chains (millions of distinct industrial components—no one can produce them without China), not to mention policy uncertainties—now targeting China, but they could be next in the future. Forcing them to incur losses is easier than forcing China to do so. Additionally, shipbuilding orders in Japan and South Korea are already backlogged until 2028. Currently, only China has the production capacity to meet global shipping demands.

Shipping companies could assign all Japanese and Korean ships to serve the U.S. market, then uniformly raise freight rates for U.S.-bound routes (regardless of whether Chinese ships are used). This equates to imposing a unified tariff on global shipments to the U.S.—exactly what’s happening now. This will only weaken America’s competitiveness further.

Yeah, exactly.

That shipping policy, those Trump fees against Chinese carriers, that was loony tunes.

Who thinks of all these crazy stuff from the White House? It is so bizarre.

And it is all basic economics too.

Here is your supply. Here is your demand. Blah blah blah.

Introduce some extreme extra costs, and analyze the situation, and they could not figure it out.

What we are seeing is just totally nutz.

They just cannot get enough of shooting themselves in the foot every single day.

Then we turn on Faux News, and it is like straight out of the Great Proletariat Cultural Revolution where the fearless orange leader can do no wrong.

MAGA communism! Yeah baby!

I mean, this is unbelievable!

Every day, it is like we are stunned into silence!

Well, at least Trump is doing one thing right, stop tempting the financial markets.

 

[phrozenflame]

There will be no deal. Trump basically gave China a massive gift with the ridiculous tariffs. In doing so, it solved a hell of a lot of the problems that was holding Beijing back in the first place, as Beijing doesn’t want to be seen as the bad guy domestically or internationally, so it had pull a lot of punches to avoid looking like it is hell bent on destroying the Sino-US relationship, and causing all the economic hardship that will result.

Ill echo this sentiment, it took hard sanctions for Chinese tech sector to get a move on towards tech independance, the govt was trying before but had limited buy-in, fast forward few years and things seem to be moving really fast.

It took China 30 years to be on par/ahead in TacAir. With the kind of focus and resources being pumped into tech, will probably take 10 or less IMO with some substreams already getting on par or ahead.

 

[iewgnem]

Yeah, exactly.

Once those tariffs went to over 100% on both sides, that meant a total trade embargo by both sides on the other.

In short, trading with each other was over.

That is decoupling, that is what the Americans wanted, and the Chinese finally gave up and said the hell with it. This is still business, and sometimes in business, it does not work out, and you walk away.

The Chinese walked away.

Personally speaking, I mentally checked, it was over. It was clearly over.

The good thing, was that it was a clean divorce.

But, maybe it is not a divorce yet. In divorce proceedings in the real world, from what I understand, both parties have to sign the papers. China signed and already out the door. But the Americans won't sign!

WTF?

I though that was what they wanted?

America cant be China's wife, but if they cant live without China, they can be China's f*ktoy

 

[iewgnem]

Yeah, that really surprised me this time.

This entire tariff nonsense, has turned into a massive geopolitical win.

So massive, I cannot even believe it myself.

The Americans have been exposed as having nothing in terms of how to take on China.

All the proof we need, was how China threaten anybody who would work alongside the Americans in their negotiations to isolate China economically.

The European Union, Japan, and even Vietnam voiced opposition that they will sacrifice their China trade to get a deal with the Americans.

Whatever the Americans thought about their allies, in reference to taking on China together, that is shot to shit.

The pressure Trump exerted onto everybody, made people crack, and the truth comes out, of what they were really thinking.

Containment of China? No thanks!

The EU, Japan, even Vietnam, all rejected such lets economically contain China overtures in a span of a couple of days.

The fog of trade war.

The nature of someone who fears stick is they fear the bigger stick. America's plan was using stick to beat countries into rejecting China's carrot, they completely discounted China has both carrot and stick, while America only has stick, and a smaller one at that.

China didnt become the oldest civilization on earth by being pacifists, America isnt the first barbarian tribe to fatally mistake China's civility for pacifism.