Trade War with China

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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
LOL Wanna talk about my area of expertise? We have to debate genetics. If that's not the topic, I'm going to just be using logic and philosophy as you see here. If philosophy and logic aren't your cup of tea, then you can't be a good adviser to the government because that means you will always be confined to your limited knowledge rather than analyze the big picture.


REEEEEAAALLLLYYYY LOLOL You think you have better intel than the CCP? They don't REALIZE that it's John Neuffer? LOLOL You really comically overestimate yourself.

1. What evidence do you have that it is John Neuffer? Don't provide stories of how you imagine things went; provide actual evidence.
2. How do you assume that the CCP doesn't know that? In chess, when you leave one of your pieces exposed and your opponent does not immediately take it, does that mean he's blind, or could he have a plan that you don't understand? In this case, your view can see only one pawn while he can see the entire board. That's what happens when you compare narrow field-acquired knowledge against the intel of a national advisory team.
3. You're talking like it's really easy to strike at American semiconductor manufacturers. This makes me think you're not as knowledgeable about them as you claim to be. ZTE underwent that humilating trial for its own survival because of American semiconductors. Do you think that all the engineers at ZTE know less than you... or maybe you don't know as much as you think?
4. Go tell the CCP it's John Neuffer LOLOL See if they thank you for leading them in the right direction or they tell you to get out and they don't need your help on obvious things. Really, if you think you have information that they need, you should give it to them. And then the cherry on top is testing whether you were right... or you know wayyyy less than you think you do. Why wouldn't you do it?

This trade war is about Semiconductor, because it has both economic and military consequences .

If China concentrate on genetics and not on Semiconductor, US wouldnt care. Therefore there's no need to talk about it.

China only going after farmers shows most likely they have no clue about who John Neuffer is.

Don't be lazy, go through Bannon interview in youtube and you will find clues.

You have to do homework stop relying on your assumption and logic.

You are out of your element only tough with your mouth. In real life, you will get canned ,I was wondering why you always acting such argumentative way. Now I know. You are biology major, using logic in argumentative way to compensate your lacking in certain areas that has major political, military consequences
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Come on guys enough this personal attack
Trump want to hollow out Chinese economy by forcing the US company to move out of the country But it is easier said then done
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Trump’s Tariffs May Hurt, but Quitting China Is Hard to Do
Companies are reconsidering where to put their factories as the trade war mounts, but few places can match China’s convenience and reliability.

Garment workers earlier this month arriving for their shifts at a factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.CreditCreditAdam Dean for The New York Times


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Sept. 24, 2018PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — The worsening trade war between the United States and China has intensified pressure on companies to leave China and set up factories in places like Cambodia, a verdant country of 16 million people with low wages and high hopes.

But anybody who moves here may have to deal with the water buffalo.

Huffing, snorting and in no hurry to move, the big-horned bovines occasionally meander across the Khmer-American Friendship Highway, the dusty, 140-mile route linking Phnom Penh’s factories with the port in the coastal city of Sihanoukville. They are not the only potential obstacles. At quitting time, factory workers heading home on foot and motorbikes clog the road.

For factory owners on deadline, those crowded roads can mean frustrating delays.

“Where Cambodia sits now is where China was 25 years ago,” said Piet Holten, who makes the microfiber cloths and bags for sport and fashion sunglass brands like Oakley. To get his sportswear products from his Phnom Penh factory to market, he flies them using DHL.

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on Monday, are prompting many companies to rethink their supply chains. As tariffs begin to make China look more expensive, many companies are considering cheaper places to make their products, like Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia. Already, companies with significant American business like Steve Madden, the fashion designer, and Puma, the German sports brand, have said they will look to shift production out of China.

But China will be hard to quit. From zippers and rivets on jackets and jeans to the minerals used in iPhones, China makes or processes many of the ingredients that go into today’s consumer goods. It has a dependable source of workers who know how to hold down factory jobs. It has reliable roads and rail lines connecting suppliers to assembly plants to ports.


Countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, by contrast, lack China’s vast supplier base and dependable roads. More workers have to be trained. Many companies have to start from scratch.

“When I came here in the beginning, it was a nightmare,” said Elli Bobrovizki, who runs a factory in Phnom Penh that makes Bloch ballet shoes.

Getting the pink ballet slippers and black jazz shoes out to places like the United States takes at least a day or two longer than it would in China, he said. To reach his factory, a visitor has to travel down a bumpy dirt road.

Inside, hundreds of workers cut leather from Brazil, then glue and carefully pinch, gather and hammer it into soles. The work could be partly automated, but the labor is cheap.

One day a few years ago Mr. Bobrovizki arrived at his factory to find several unions had locked it. Negotiations took weeks. In Cambodia some unions are backed by the party of Hun Sen, the prime minister, adding to political risks for foreign companies.

“I lost half a million dollars in those two weeks that they blocked my gate,” Mr. Bobrovizki said.

Companies are not looking to leave China just because of the trade war. Average wages
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, according to official data. The average Chinese factory worker makes roughly $10,000 a year, the official data shows. By contrast, the minimum wage for Cambodian garment workers amounts to about one-fifth of that. But rising tariffs, and the prospect of more on the horizon, add to the urgency.

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China will be hard to quit, even if labor costs elsewhere, like the Man Ou factory near Sihanoukville shown here, are cheaper. China makes or processes many of the ingredients that go into today’s consumer goods.CreditAdam Dean for The New York Times
“People are desperate to get out of China,” said Spencer Fung of Li & Fung, a go-between for Western companies and factories in developing countries.

One American company recently told a supplier with a factory in Phnom Penh that it wants to take its China production down to zero as soon as possible in order to avoid tariffs, said Bradley Gordon, a lawyer who advises multinational companies in Cambodia. That Phnom Penh factory plans to hire 1,000 more workers in the next month and employ nearly 10,000 workers by next year.

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, or about 2.9 million miles, of highways. It has
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ports, and three of the top five.

China’s sheer manufacturing capabilities are unrivaled. One measure of its output, called manufacturing value added,
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that China makes roughly as much as the United States and Japan combined.

Image
merlin_143926542_be2870d2-68c8-414e-8765-6ab6533228a8-articleLarge.jpg

Workers in the Bloch factory cut leather from Brazil, apply glue and carefully pinch, gather and hammer the material into soles. The work could be partly automated, but Cambodian labor costs are low.CreditAdam Dean for The New York Times
“The entire supply chain is based in China, so if we were to move, we would still have to procure components in China, and then export them somewhere else,” said Aaron Emigh, co-founder of Brilliant, an American start-up that makes smart-home devices. Brilliant is releasing its product just as the Trump administration’s tariffs take effect.

“Moving out of China is not purely a matter of cost, but of possibility,” he added.

Brilliant’s devices have more than 700 components, most of which are sourced in China. The country offers the best manufacturing options for some of Brilliant’s most technical needs, like printing circuit boards, injection-molded plastics, screens and modules.


Some companies believe they have to look for alternatives no matter how appealing China can be.

Inventec, a Taiwanese electronics manufacturer of laptops and devices for companies like HP, Toshiba and Acer, has drawn up contingency plans to move China production to Taiwan, the Czech Republic, Mexico and Houston, according to Ada Chang, a spokeswoman.

Moving the entire supply chain out of China would be too complicated, she said. But Inventec could assemble the final product in other places so the “country of origin” certificate would not say China, she said.


00Chinafactory-7-articleLarge.jpg


Peter Baum knows well the challenges of operating in a country like Cambodia. An owner of Baum-Essex, a company that makes umbrellas for Costco and cotton bags for Walmart in contracted factories in Vietnam and Cambodia, he gets frustrated when he has to turn to multiple countries for the parts and material he needs because it means more opportunity for delays.

“It is the worst nightmare known to man,” Mr. Baum said. He recently finished an order for umbrellas for Costco. The wood handles from Italy were delayed. The polyester from Taiwan was the wrong pattern.


“I probably lost a couple of hundred thousand on the transaction,” he said.

Cambodia’s lack of development in many areas adds its own complications.

Mr. Holten, the manufacturer whose company makes products for Oakley, decided to open a factory in Cambodia in 2010. His competitors thought he was crazy, he said, because China was still cheap. “I saw the writing on the wall,” said Mr. Holten, whose company, Pactics, still makes cloth bags for Burberry in China.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
I am thinking what "IF" China retaliate by stop lending and start dumping US debt? The Bear has done that but it's too small that couldn't hurt the US.

China may not start dumping as it devalues that $1 trillion of holdings, but it may stop buying. Of course, if the US can find other buyers that is not a problem. The problem is the sheer quantity of >> NEW << debt the US creates each year, just over a trillion alone for the US government. This does not count consumer debt, corporate debt, city debt, state debt and so on. The US needs every debt buyer it can get, and every buyer that turns into a nonbuyer, pulls a stone underneath that foundation. One also has to add that Chinese investment to the US has already dropped 90%.

The situation is this. Picture a squad of herculean giants holding up large increasingly sized obese ball you call the US debt. Imagine if one by one, these giants start saying, "forget it, I'm through" and leaves the group. The burden falls more to the remaining squad members or you need to bring in more giants to join the group. But what if, because of those giants leaving, new giants refuse to join the group? At the same time, this obese ball of a giant these other giants are propping up refuses to diet and continues to eat and grow more obese, weigh more pounds each day?
 

JsCh

Junior Member
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Ford executive says may boost production in China to avoid tariffs
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Joseph Szczesny,
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•September 25, 2018
Detroit (AFP) - Ford is looking at speeding up plans to build more Lincoln models in Chinese plants amid the growing trade war with the United States that has made US exports less attractive, a senior executive said Monday.

Joseph Hinrichs, Ford's executive vice president for global operations, said he did not see any easy resolution to the trade dispute between the United States and China.

President Donald Trump on Monday imposed tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods, prompting swift retaliation from Beijing on $60 billion in US products.

"We have long been advocates for balanced and free trade," Hinrichs said. "We continue to encourage both the US administration and the Chinese government that it's in everyone's interest to work out their differences."

But, he said, "I believe this US-China discussion will go on for a while."

The increasing exchange of tariffs makes it difficult to plan for the future and with tariffs on vehicles exported to China now reaching 40 percent there is no business case for exporting vehicles from the United States, he said.

"China is a core businesses for us," he said, but added, "You're talking about two very powerful economies so we're going to have to plan accordingly."

The company has been planning to launch new vehicles in China to halt its recent slide in that market, he said.

Ford recently announced it was scrapping plans to import the compact Focus model from Chinese plants into the US market due to the tariffs.

- Canada should stay in NAFTA -

Hinrichs also said he hoped a breakthrough on a revised North American Free Trade Agreement could be achieved this week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York to keep Canada in the continental trade pact.

"We need a three-way auto agreement," Hinrichs said, noting that the deal struck last month between the United States and Mexico could serve as a basis for a more complete agreement that includes Canada.

"I'm worried a little bit that time will catch up with us," he said at a luncheon, noting that he had spent more time in Washington DC working on trade issues than ever before.

US and Canadian negotiators have spent more than a month trying to resolve remaining differences after Washington sealed a tentative deal with Mexico City which they intend to sign by December 1, when a new government takes office.

The auto industry is key to NAFTA and the free trade deal is critical to the North American supply chain.

Hinrichs said that while "the language of US-Mexico trade agreement should work for Canada" in the auto sector, the remaining sticking points centered on other topics like lumber, dairy and cultural issues.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
This trade war is about Semiconductor, because it has both economic and military consequences .

If China concentrate on genetics and not on Semiconductor, US wouldnt care. Therefore there's no need to talk about it.

China only going after farmers shows most likely they have no clue about who John Neuffer is.

Don't be lazy, go through Bannon interview in youtube and you will find clues.

You have to do homework stop relying on your assumption and logic.

You are out of your element only tough with your mouth. In real life, you will get canned ,I was wondering why you always acting such argumentative way. Now I know. You are biology major, using logic in argumentative way to compensate your lacking in certain areas that has major political, military consequences
So in other words, I asked you to provide evidence that John Neuffer is behind the trade war and you have nothing to show. Funnily, you asked me to find evidence for your argument LOL. I ask you to show me evidence that Beijing doesn't understand that semiconductors and John Neuffer are the crux of the trade war, and you have nothing to show.

All you say is that you tried using your "logic" and "assumptions" to arrive at those points and then you criticized me for using logic and assumptions, and oddly enough that I study biological sciences LOL. Did you think that since you're the only one who claims to work in the semiconductor field that means we'll all let you run amok on this forum unchecked by logic or requirement for evidence? No, whatever field you're in, however much you think you know, if you can't win in logic, you lose all the same.

You cannot even answer my point-to-point arguments; you just jumble everything because when it is clear and organized, it is obvious that your argument is broken. You can only try to muddle things; turn point-to-point into a big pile of crap, give out random Google-able semiconductor facts, in order to pretend to be right somewhere.

If you know something Beijing does not, why don't you tell them? I've brought this up before many times. Tell them and see what happens. You don't do it because you don't know anything of any value to anyone. Your google semiconductor "knowledge" is totally useless, especially to Beijing. Working in the semiconductor field as you claim, if you knew anything at all worth a crap, you'd be working for Beijing for big bucks instead of running your mouth like an angry little man on the internet to try to convince people that you're smart and China needs you. Do you know how stupid you need to be to work in semiconductors and still have no use to China? It's like a chef with food donations being turned away by the homeless shelter LOL. What quality is this chef and his food? You-quality, that's what! LOL Quite frankly, no experts in any field talk like you.

The conclusion is that you have no evidence, no knowledge, no logic and can only bullshit to try to pretend to be someone important and smart. Beijing needs to listen to you? LOL Yeah and Einstein needs to take advice from his dog LOL
 
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D

Deleted member 13312

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I am thinking what "IF" China retaliate by stop lending and start dumping US debt? The Bear has done that but it's too small that couldn't hurt the US.
Well the main problem with this is that if the Bear was too small, the Dragon in this case would be too big. If China were to dump the entirety of US bonds at once, yes it would seriously hurt the US, it might even bankrupt them. But if that were to happen China would also be burning off a significant part of their wealth as well if the US is unable to pay off the whole debt. And if the US was in a solvent position to do that, then selling off the debt would be pointless in the first place.
And if China takes the safer way to self off their debt in manageable steps, that would give the US enough time to adjust accordingly as well.
And even after all of this is said and done, it is still a question whether China's total US debt is enough to distablize the US. While China is without a doubt the single largest holder of US debt at 1.18 trillion USD, the total amount of debt it has amounts to 7.2% of total US debts owned.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
The question is not the proportion of US debt that China owns, its the question of why you ---- or the other investor --- should buy this yearly increasing US debt if China isn't buying. Debt buyers buy debt because they believe that a strong economy and a strong currency is behind it.

The moment you start printing too much money to pay off your debt, weakens your currency and puts doubts in the minds of those investors about your economy. Those investors expect the debtor to pay off debt using genuine revenue. Weakening your currency, such as excessive money printing, results not just less people investing in your economy as their golden egg, it triggers capital flight. Not only do you not have new buyers for your debt, but people also sell off their assets and stocks so they can leave the economy for elsewhere, and this reduces the total wealth of the economy. This creates a Catch 22 because there will be even less buyers of your debt, which means print money more, which means further currency devaluation followed by capital flight. This is a very good way to turn into a Third World country again. This is a good reason why CBs, including the US, have been doing QT this year rather than more QE.

There is a lemming effect in economics, if the big investor buys or sells, this triggers the lemming investors to buy or sell right along, which then triggers other lemmings in a runaway chain reaction.
 
D

Deleted member 13312

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Japan's share is also big, just thinking alound LOL now won't delete what I dug out Aug 4, 2018
I don't understand what are you trying to proof with this, if any your link only reinforce my point that China IS the single largest foreign holder of US debt, even beating out Japan by 100 billion USD.
 
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