Trade War with China

Google might succeed if it's a Democrat American Government in power. But this is Trump. This administration is not just against Huawei, China, but tech in general.

Trump knows nothing but aluminium, steel, coal, and agriculture. Maybe perhaps plus auto, but that's about it.

With the ban or without the ban, Google et al won't vote for him, and he knows that much for sure.

Lnk111229 said:

Not related but any Chinese here think about Canada now? Because while browsing through Youtube look like those kidnapper hypocrite still not amid those fault do dirty thing for US and call Chinese retaliation on them is "gunboat diplomacy".

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Canada is currently embroiled with Garbagegate.

manqiangrexue said:

Once again, your suggestion is to create no new OS and remain reliant on Google? And your theory is that this vulnerability will not be exploited because the US has too much self-preservation?

I disagree. The more China grows, the more desperate the US government becomes and there will be a day when it's willing to destroy all of its own tech to stop China's rising, or at least there could be. China cannot be vulnerable to that.

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Why do you need to create an all new OS? AOSP or Android Open Source Program lets you make Android your own. In fact Hongmeng or ARK is likely an AOSP flavor, and smartphones inside China are already running AOSP.

The thing is you cannot sell this OS outside of China because I don't see why anyone would, without the millions of apps in Google Play or Apple App Store.

China's new OS has an advantage that no other challenger OS had and that's when push comes to shove, the Chinese government can mandate that all phones sold in China use it, immediately creating a huge market and incentive for tech/app companies to create an environment for it. China cannot depend on US tech anymore. I don't know if I understand you but this point seems to be missing from your solution.

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Only inside China, not outside of it.

Because their success vaults America and their profits finance America. You absolutely cannot pursue a strategy that lifts these companies up simply because they are nicer than Trump because Trump will point to their success as his success and evidence of him "winning." And you cannot make a situation where American companies prosper while Chinese companies suffer; if Chinese companies take a hit, American ones have to take a much bigger hit.

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And when you sell a Chinese smartphone with Android on it, the money also goes to Cbina. That is how businesses work. Its all a win win for both parties.

Do you think American companies are prospering because of this? No they are not. That is why the US economy is facing recessionary pressures. The grim reality is that China is irreplaceable as part of the global manufacturing and supply chain.

Tam said:

Why do you need to create an all new OS? AOSP or Android Open Source Program lets you make Android your own. In fact Hongmeng or ARK is likely an AOSP flavor, and smartphones inside China are already running AOSP.

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I know Hongmeng/Ark isn't totally new but an Android fork, but clearly, there has to be a reason that Huawei doesn't just shrug it off and use open source Android. Why does Huawei create Ark/Hongmeng? There can't be no reason.

Tam said:

The thing is you cannot sell this OS outside of China because I don't see why anyone would, without the millions of apps in Google Play or Apple App Store.

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These apps need to be available in Ark as well and how do we get them to be? Look below.

Tam said:

Only inside China, not outside of it.

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The inside China part is to create the incentive for app-makers to make them compatible with Hongmeng/Ark as well. The huge Chinese market is the financial incentive. Once that environment is established, there should be no reason that other countries wouldn't be just as happy using Hongmeng/Ark over Google Android or Apple.

Tam said:

And when you sell a Chinese smartphone with Android on it, the money also goes to Cbina. That is how businesses work. Its all a win win for both parties.

Do you think American companies are prospering because of this? No they are not. That is why the US economy is facing recessionary pressures. The grim reality is that China is irreplaceable as part of the global manufacturing and supply chain.

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I'm not talking about making phones with open source Android. I'm talking about in general, when US companies come to China, they make money and send some of it back to the states and we need to hit that.

manqiangrexue said:

I know Hongmeng/Ark isn't totally new but an Android fork, but clearly, there has to be a reason that Huawei doesn't just shrug it off and use open source Android. Why does Huawei create Ark/Hongmeng? There can't be no reason.

These apps need to be available in Ark as well and how do we get them to be? Look below.

The inside China part is to create the incentive for app-makers to make them compatible with Hongmeng/Ark as well. The huge Chinese market is the financial incentive. Once that environment is established, there should be no reason that other countries wouldn't be just as happy using Hongmeng/Ark over Google Android or Apple.

I'm not talking about making phones with open source Android. I'm talking about in general, when US companies come to China, they make money and send some of it back to the states and we need to hit that.

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Its not a problem getting Chinese apps on board a Chinese Android fork. It would have no problem surviving and thriving in China. But outside of China, things like Google and Facebook are imperative for any smartphone and you're not going to put those in any Chinese Android fork unless you do it yourself by downloading the apks.

Quite frankly, China already gets back what US companies make in China in the form of taxes, hiring, the FDI and the purchasing of Chinese materials.

Tam said:

Its not a problem getting Chinese apps on board a Chinese Android fork. It would have no problem surviving and thriving in China. But outside of China, things like Google and Facebook are imperative for any smartphone and you're not going to put those in any Chinese Android fork unless you do it yourself by downloading the apks.

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Hold on, Ark can run all Android apps including Facebook where it's not banned. For Google search, it can be easily linked by browser, right? Or maybe it's also compatible with Ark; it just doesn't come with it.

Are you arguing that from now to the end of time, Android and Apple will be the only OS that are usable globally? I just don't see it. Building a new OS and nurturing and environment for it seems like a huge task but not undoable because clearly people have done it before and China's huge market is perfect for growing the buds before the environment is strong enough to go international.

But we're not even faced with that issue here because Ark is supposed to be compatible with all Android apps. Essentially, it's a Huawei-improved open source Android. So it's like your suggestion, except improved and with a new name.

Tam said:

Quite frankly, China already gets back what US companies make in China in the form of taxes, hiring, the FDI and the purchasing of Chinese materials.

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Your solution is what? Let US companies prosper in China while Chinese companies are attacked in the US?

Well earning the money off of Chinese clients and giving a part of it back in form of taxes is still taking away from Chinese capital. The net movement is still to the US (unless they invest, fail, and leave). But I'm not talking about all US firms. US firms with technological contribution should be allowed to operate and of course, they must benefit CHINESE technology, not just technology in China. Others like MacDonalds, Starbucks, Nike, etc... are just leeches and should be given as hard a time as possible and replaced with domestic alternatives.

manqiangrexue said:

I was thinking about that, the best US option forward is to sign big, long-term contracts at discounted prices to supply Oppo, Xiaomi, Vivo, etc... with premium parts hoping they can compete with Huawei in China's market to deprive Huawei of some of the revenue it needs to sustain its R&D. If that happens, then these Chinese companies would become vessels for selling US parts to the Chinese market in competition with China's indigenization efforts.

These companies need to resist that temptation and start moving in the direction of self-sufficiency, and hopefully, they can team up with Huawei to support the build-up of Chinese components because if they don't, they will essentially become foreign agents. If that happens, China's government needs to instruct them on the correct path or find a way to shut them down if they do not follow it.

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Agreed, but what Chinese technology company is going to be comfortable with being completely dependent on US content nowadays?

But self-sufficiency is just half of the goal.

Equally important is supporting/buying from non-US companies (in say Europe and Japan), and making it clear their products have to have minimal US content so they aren't subject to domestic US sanction laws.

So when China-US disagreements arise, it helps keep the rest of the world neutral or supporting the Chinese position.
It also means global companies start to minimise purchases from the USA or locating R&D in the US.

It is China's long term interests to be sustain a liberal trade/investment order for Chinese companies to expand.
And in 15 years time we should see the Chinese economy catch up in technology and also be roughly twice the size of the USA.
That is irrespective of whatever the US does.

I disagree with the idea of Huawei withdrawing from the handphone market. It is a key player and a capable one at that. If it was some other Chinese makes not in the top three or four, then perhaps. Anyway, I just registering my opinion and am not in a position to discuss further.

s002wjh said:

the problem is oversea market Oppo, xiaomi are using android system, which mean huawei has to compete with them as well. google map, youtube etc are essential in oversea market.

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Huawei smartphone sales are roughly 50% China and 50% overseas.
So the domestic market still remains for 4G smartphones.

But with the advent of 5G, the internet of things with trillions of connected devices opens up.
So Huawei can pivot from smartphones to this area.
And the Chinese market (by itself) should support Huawei growing bigger than it is today.

When I look at the internet of things, the end products are technologically much less complex eg. mainly low power devices/sensors which have a single purpose.
And the more complex 5G applications have their intelligence residing in the cloud, with the end devices more like dumb terminals.

manqiangrexue said:

A lot of China's brilliance shines long after the moves are made.

Long ago, it was questionable why China would be so devoted to the rare earth industry when the profit was low, investment high, and damage to the environment great. Now we see.

When China banned Google, it looked like negotiations were just not working out between the PRC and Google and China's scientists would suffer for it. Now, we see that in addition to China's own search engines, we have a Chinese population impervious to a Google ban.

Very impressive long-term strategic planning.

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Just one point.

China didn't ban Google. It was Google that decided to withdraw.

I don't see China ban Apple or Qualcomm in any near future, they are model foreign companies in the Chinese market, law-abiding and never try to challenge the authorities of the central government. More importantly, the Chinese market contributes more than 30% of Apple's/ 50% of Qualcomm's annual profit, it's easy to shut down the Chinese market to kill these two companies and it's exactly why CCP is not going to do it, they could potentially be a part of the "United Front".