Trade War with China

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Tam

Brigadier
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It is not CPU, but wireless communication ICs, analogue circuits and so on.

Lot of time to design, test, master it, and the process cost years( decades) and billions of $.

Things that Huawei has made for over two decades, and those things don't have the complexity of a CPU. Modem chips don't take decades to test and master by the way, when they are in fact, done on a far shorter time.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
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Things that Huawei has made for over two decades, and those things don't have the complexity of a CPU. Modem chips don't take decades to test and master by the way, when they are in fact, done on a far shorter time.
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Tam

Brigadier
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It is not simply about that, the reason why the $ is accepted everywhere is because the USA can grantee the transport of goods/people to/from USA by sea.

As soon as this capability restricted the USA $ as reserve/ trade currency dramatically decrease.


So it is not simply a decision, it is more of a natural evolution of the world order.


Dollar is accepted because it is oil currency, and simply because every nation has a trade deficit with the US. What happens when a country ends up having a trade deficit with the US? They own a lot of dollars. Guess what do you want to do with those dollars? Use it. You cannot use it as in country currency, so you use it as trade currency.

US does not control or guarantee the flow of goods of people on sea and air. The sea lanes are dominated by Chinese, European, Japanese and Korean shipping fleets, companies like Maersk and COSCO.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Life will be very hard if US places some sort of export ban on semiconductor related materials.
China currently makes 2 competitive CPUs:
1. Kirin ARM-based SOC's
2. AMD Dhyana Epyc x86-based CPUs

Both require TSMC to make them.
TSMC requires ASML (Dutch) EUV machines/services and US equipment and materials/chemicals/services.

If US wants to destroy China's companies/short term economy, just do this. Don't expect the Chinese to ever look up to the West again tho since these are shared CCP/Chinese interests just like soverignty issues (Tibet/Xinjiang/HK/TW...)


The fact of the matter is, the West has monopolized the high-end supply chain through a century of innovation/IP maneuverings.
 

Tam

Brigadier
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That has completely nothing to do with the speed of development of testing, which in modern processes, can be automated.

You have no idea that Huawei and ZTE has been making modem chips and modem products for over two decades now, along with routers and switches for much longer than they did with smartphones.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
So does that you will a accept a more China lead "world order" instead of the west? Or else you would go into war to protect that status quo?

If it is up to me then there would be no military person beyond the borders of UK, or any other European country.


I don't care what China does in his surrounding ,and it will be better if the USA will go back the north america, and take care of his surrounding rather than causing havoc all around the world.

But, the change of world order will have deep consequences affecting everyone life. Like the disappearance of Hollywood movies from the screens outside of USA, change of product price/ availability / type and so on.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Life will be very hard if US places some sort of export ban on semiconductor related materials.
China currently makes 2 competitive CPUs:
1. Kirin ARM-based SOC's
2. AMD Dhyana Epyc x86-based CPUs

Both require TSMC to make them.
TSMC requires ASML (Dutch) EUV machines/services and US equipment and materials/chemicals/services.

If US wants to destroy China's companies/short term economy, just do this. Don't expect the Chinese to ever look up to the West again tho since these are shared CCP/Chinese interests just like soverignty issues (Tibet/Xinjiang/HK/TW...)


Chinese companies makes all sorts of CPUs, including MIPS based, X86 based and ARM based. Huawei even has its own ARM based CPU for cloud use, and its not named Kirin.

If TSMC is blocked from making chips for China, they lose their biggest customer, and they would lose their business, and go bankrupt--- chip making is not a very profitable business. If the chip maker goes bankrupt, ASML has no chipmaker to sell their machine too. And they go belly up as well. If lets say, you block Intel from selling to China, with China accounting for 80% of all Intel orders, Intel business and stock would collapse. You destroy the supply chain, you destroy the supplier and the manufacturer themselves right up the cycle.

Expect tech stocks to get a beating this month and next year if the trade wars continue, and these effects will dramatically affect the stock market.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Dollar is accepted because it is oil currency, and simply because every nation has a trade deficit with the US. What happens when a country ends up having a trade deficit with the US? They own a lot of dollars. Guess what do you want to do with those dollars? Use it. You cannot use it as in country currency, so you use it as trade currency.

US does not control or guarantee the flow of goods of people on sea and air. The sea lanes are dominated by Chinese, European, Japanese and Korean shipping fleets, companies like Maersk and COSCO.
You want to say trade surplus, I presume.

Yes, it is correct description.
The Yuan to become reserve/trade currency will need lot of trade deficit by China.

The USA NAVY dominate the sea lanes, the USA can decide to open/close any shipping lane on the world oceans.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
That has completely nothing to do with the speed of development of testing, which in modern processes, can be automated.

You have no idea that Huawei and ZTE has been making modem chips and modem products for over two decades now, along with routers and switches for much longer than they did with smartphones.

REad the semi article, automation works with the slow/old ICs, not with the new ones.

The required engineers/manhours exploded in the last decades.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Chinese companies makes all sorts of CPUs, including MIPS based, X86 based and ARM based. Huawei even has its own ARM based CPU for cloud use, and its not named Kirin.

If TSMC is blocked from making chips for China, they lose their biggest customer, and they would lose their business, and go bankrupt--- chip making is not a very profitable business. If the chip maker goes bankrupt, ASML has no chipmaker to sell their machine too. And they go belly up as well. If lets say, you block Intel from selling to China, with China accounting for 80% of all Intel orders, Intel business and stock would collapse. You destroy the supply chain, you destroy the supplier and the manufacturer themselves right up the cycle.

Expect tech stocks to get a beating this month and next year if the trade wars continue, and these effects will dramatically affect the stock market.

TMSC has over 30 % profit rate.
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