Trade War with China

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FactsPlease

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chinese leaders (and readers) will be idiot if they are to trust
1) Trump, given his record
2) Creditibility of this US administration, given 1) and all those hawks like Bolton
3) Still self-deemed moral highground of US, given its latest arm-wrestling with everyone
4) Rules, agreement, treaty ever been signed by US
....
I can go on and on like this
 
now
Chinese FM: Xi-Trump meeting indicates direction of two countries' relations
Updated 2018-12-02 15:18 GMT+8
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Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, reached important consensus during their working dinner on the sidelines of the 13th summit of the Group of 20 (G20) Saturday local time in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which indicates the direction of the development of the Sino-U.S. relationship in the future, said Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a press briefing after the meeting.

"Coordination, cooperation and stability should become the defining features of the bilateral relations," said Wang.

He said that the two presidents agreed to keep in close touch with each other through mutual visits, meetings, telephone calls and correspondence, and will continue to provide guidance on China-U.S. relations. They have also agreed to exchange visits at the appropriate time.

"Facts have proven that China and the U.S. have more common interests than differences, and have greater need for cooperation than friction. As long as the two sides work together in the spirit of mutual respect, take care of each other's concerns and treat each other as equals in dialogues, the two sides will find win-win solutions to their problems," added Wang.

China reiterated its stance on Taiwan affairs, and the U.S. has expressed its support for the one-China policy. The two sides also exchanged views on the Korean Peninsula issues, according to Wang.

Moreover, the two sides have agreed to actively protect law enforcement and the control of illicit narcotics, including the control of Fentanyl. So far, China's actions in this regard have been fully recognized by the international community including the United States. China will also schedule all forms of Fentanyl and start the adjustments of related regulations.

Wang also noted that discussions between the two presidents on economic and trade issues are very positive and constructive. The presidents have come to an agreement on stopping the imposition of additional tariffs.

"The two teams will follow the principle guidance reached by the two presidents and step up their negotiations toward the elimination of all additional tariffs," said Wang.

In their first meeting since November 2017, the two presidents had a profound discussion that lasted for 2.5 hours, much longer than scheduled, Wang said.
 

xiabonan

Junior Member
I don't know how people like SB can still spin this deal as a trump win.

Let's make this clear, from the perspective of Trump and his supporters, anything less than a full surrender by China is not a win. A full surrender means China is to eliminate the trade deficit, give American companies same market access as domestic firms and SOEs, protect IP rights, promise to withdraw the Made in China 2025 program and all industrial policies and subsidies, and to basically stop developing itself. All of which are trump's goals he has been repeating ever since the start of this trade war.

Anything less than this is NOT a win, which means Trump can NEVER win. It's simply not possible.

So what's the second best situation for Trump? Continue with his hardline approach and apply the tariffs as he promised. Eliminate the trade deficit while at the same time bringing back American industry and manufacturing, and deal a devastating to China while maintaining good economic outlook at home, meaning high stock prices, low unemployment rates, etc.

All of which are not happening. Chinese trade has increased more than 10% from last year, Sino-US trade deficit has widened, not shrunk, US manufacturing is not reviving as Trump imagined, and US stocks are tanking. While China is suffering some damage, American farmers and industry are suffering as well.

When you're on the offensive, anything less than a more aggressive offence is a retreat. By Trump's logic, this deal is simply giving China more time to "bully" and "cheat" the US.

For China, what this deal does is simply to buy more time. It doesn't really matter if those tariffs are eventually going to be implemented, if not for this deal they'll be implemented in less than a month's time anyway. So any delay is a win, any possibility of removing the tariffs is a win.

This is a war Trump and the US simply cannot win because he's confused about he wants himself. He's just throwing things out there and see which one hits.
 

xiabonan

Junior Member
Also, People's Daily today posted a fantastic article on the truce agreement, I'll provide a translation of an excerpt here for everyone's reference (I did the translation myself)

"According to people with knowledge, with respect to 53 'structural issues' that the US side has raised, Chinese side subdivided them into 142 smaller categories, and categorized them according to Chinese institutions, relevant laws and regulations, and reform needs into three major groups: generally agreeable, negotiable and unacceptable"

"At the same time, the Chinese side has also raised concerns to their US counterparts, and received warm acknowledgements."

China's leaders want reform in many areas, there's been significant resistance from domestic interest groups on many fronts. What the leadership is trying to do is to distill the best possible outcome from this trade war, which means a) externally, hold off the tariffs as long as possible and reduce the amount of goods to as little as possible and b) use external pressure to push for long-wanted reforms as much as possible while at the same time holding off irrational and impossible demands.

China's strategy is now abundantly clear, and it is a delicate balancing act indeed, but I'm confident they'll manage it.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
lol trump is like the manipulative, abusive boyfriend
To American allies he is... but he's more like a girlfriend around Xi. Look at all those compliments that nobody ever wanted in the first place haha. I'd be blushing if they came from a decent looking lady!
I don't know it looked as if PRC proclaimed yield not the US.We can wait and see.
PRC yielded by offering the US the same deal (of an unspecified number of US agricultural imports) that the US rejected 6 months ago and now the US accepted it temporarily? Funny way to see things. Probably as long as Trump didn't cry or suffer a stroke, you'd try some way to spin in it as the PRC "yielded" LOL.

The only part about your post that made sense was the first 3 words: "I don't know."
 
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after Today at 8:51 AM
here's the CNN story
Trump agrees to freeze higher tariffs on $200B in Chinese goods — for now

Updated 1:33 AM ET, Sun December 2, 2018
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Fox News:
US, China agree to 90-day truce to hash out trade differences
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The U.S. and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in a bid to work out their trade differences. The news came Saturday following a dinner meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires.

As part of the detente, Trump agreed to delay plans to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods that would have taken effect Jan. 1. China agreed to buy a “substantial amount” of agricultural, energy and industrial products from the U.S. to reduce the trade deficit.

"It's an incredible deal," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, on his way back to Washington. "What I'll be doing is holding back on tariffs. China will be opening up, China will be getting rid of tariffs. China will be buying massive amounts of products from us."

The temporary agreement will give both nations time to iron out their differences. If not, the $200 billion in planned tariffs will go into effect.

Trump has already imposed tariffs on $250 billion on Chinese products. In response, China slapped taxes on $110 billion in American goods.

The meeting came during Trump’s weekend trip to Argentina where he canceled a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin amid tensions between
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. He also canceled a Saturday news conference following the death of former President
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.

"It's great the two sides took advantage of this opportunity to call a truce," said Andy Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia. "The two sides appear to have had a major change of heart to move away from confrontation toward engagement. This changes the tone and direction of the bilateral conversation."

China also conceded to label fentanyl, the synthetic opioid cited in thousands of drug deaths, as a controlled substance and agreed to reconsider a takeover by U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm that it had previously blocked.

China nixed the proposed purchase of Dutch semiconductor manufacturer NXP by the chipmaker over antitrust concerns.

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said China's decision to label the drug as a controlled substance means that "people selling fentanyl to the United States will be subject to China's maximum penalty under the law."

The U.S. has pressured China to take a tougher stance against the drug, which is 50 times more powerful than heroin. Most of the U.S. supply of the drug is made in China.

Washington has also accused Beijing of selling trade secrets and forcing American companies to hand over technology in exchange for access to Chinese markets.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
btw wasn't he going to put on full $500 bil? what happened to that? when was that removed from consideration?

and 60 days is 60 days, what multinationals think of that is a whole other matter.

i can't see Xi abiding to US IP standards, that will destroy the gap closing. Probably just no more tech transfers which China doesn't really need at this point. Also, no compromise on China 2025.

So vision of final agreement:
No more tech transfers/joint ownership (don't really need anymore imo and they won't do it even without this stipulation)
Lower tariffs across the board + agriculture (which China needs due to resource/environmental reasons)
More openess to foreign financial institutions?
Increased imports on US oil, agriculture, tech, perhaps by up to $100-200 billion/y which isn't that hard to do

Things that China (or any other developing country for that matter) cannot accept:
-Abide by US IP standards. Where they gonna get the lawyers? Don't tell me US wants US courts to judge Chinese companies.
-Stop subsidies for China 2025
-Section 301
 
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xiabonan

Junior Member
btw wasn't he going to put on full $500 bil? what happened to that? when was that removed from consideration?

and 60 days is 60 days, what multinationals think of that is a whole other matter.

i can't see Xi abiding to US IP standards, that will destroy the gap closing. Probably just no more tech transfers which China doesn't really need at this point. Also, no compromise on China 2025.

So vision of final agreement:
No more tech transfers/joint ownership (don't really need anymore imo and they won't do it even without this stipulation)
Lower tariffs across the board + agriculture (which China needs due to resource/environmental reasons)
More openess to foreign financial institutions?
Increased imports on US oil, agriculture, tech, perhaps by up to $100-200 billion/y which isn't that hard to do

Things that China (or any other developing country for that matter) cannot accept:
-Abide by US IP standards. Where they gonna get the lawyers? Don't tell me US wants US courts to judge Chinese companies.
-Stop subsidies for China 2025
-Section 301

By now what China can and cannot agree should be quite clear to anyone watching the trade war. I agree with your list, but to be honest there is nothing new that China hasn't promised before. The US simply isn't going to extract anything new out of China no matter how hard they try.
 
Yesterday at 7:54 PM
here comes a moderately interesting story
Trump and Xi's G20 dinner could halt -- or escalate -- US-China trade war
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:
and right now it appears the results was "halt"
***
Xi, Trump reach important consensus, chart course for bilateral ties
Xinhua| 2018-12-02 13:42:59
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Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump reached important consensus Saturday night at their working dinner, said Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

"In a friendly and candid atmosphere, the two presidents had profound discussions that have lasted for two and a half hours. The time was much longer than the schedule," Wang told reporters after the dinner meeting in the Argentine capital of Buenos Aires.

According to Wang, the two presidents "reached important common understandings and the meeting certainly has charted the course for China-U.S. relations in the some time to come."

The two presidents agreed that the two countries "can and should" ensure success of China-U.S. relations and that coordination, cooperation and stability should be the features of the bilateral relations, said the Chinese official.

Wang said the two presidents agreed to keep in close touch with each other through visits, meetings, phone calls and correspondents to continue providing guidance for the bilateral ties.

Xi and Trump agreed to "have further exchange of visits at an appropriate time," Wang said.
 
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