Trade War with China


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Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
Oh boy, another Efficient Market acolyte. If the market is so efficient, it wouldn't crash ever so often (want to buy a tulip?) and there is no need for the “Greenspan Put”. Western countries were able to industrialize because they robbed so much wealth from the rest of the world.
Mixing up cause and effect.
Best part of Europe was under Turkish occupation prior of the industrial revolution.
At the same time you can compare the Spanish empire with the British one, and the difference will be striking.

And don't forget, every country (western or not) behave by the same way, Japan wasn't capable to invade Manchuria , without the technological advantage learnt from the Europeans.

You can argue about that the Japanese Damiyos was very peacefully prior of meeting the Europeans, and they cached the animal spirit from them.

Or as an alternative explanation (and more probable) every country try to dominate above other countries , and the more advanced more capable to do that.

And the "efficient market" is not important if China want to stay on the level of 20-50% of the per-capita economical performance of the USA/Europe.

In that case it will do nothing else just copy over with time lag the copy able parts of the systems developed by other countries , and the GDP level will depend on the information flow between those countries.


In that reading the trade war is the biggest danger for China, because its capability to copy will be seriously restricted.

OR, China can develop its own market based institutional system, and can left in the dust the USA/Europe : )
 

vincent

Senior Member
Mixing up cause and effect.
And the "efficient market" is not important if China want to stay on the level of 20-50% of the per-capita economical performance of the USA/Europe.

In that case it will do nothing else just copy over with time lag the copy able parts of the systems developed by other countries , and the GDP level will depend on the information flow between those countries.
Oh, copy the “best” parts of the “efficient” market like Asset-backed Securities, CDOs, credit default swaps, NINJA loans, rate-reset loans, etc? You know, the shits that brought us the Great Recession? I suggest you educate yourself on modern finance before making a fool of yourself in front of the world
 

xiabonan

Junior Member
I think the key thing about this trade war is that Trump (and his supporter) has a totally different view of "fair trade" in comparison to us, the Chinese.

He and his supporters seem to believe that trade is only fair if both sides charge the same percentage of tariffs, whatever that might be, on the same products.

However this is a totally naive way of portraying fairness. First of all, apart from commodities like oil, gas, iron and steel, very few goods are truly homogeneous. For example, is it fair if a Ferrari and a Toyota or Hyundai is being charged the same percentage of tariffs, despite the huge differences in price and quality?

By this logic of "fair trade", is it fair that a billionaire and a waiter be charged the same percentage of tax? Is it fair, then, for college admission to be based on SAT/ACT results only and nothing else should be taken into consideration?

Countries in the world are all in different stages of development, with different natural endowments and human resources. Some are large nations panning continents such as Russia, some are virtually the size of a city like Singapore; Some have billions or hundreds of millions of people, some only a few million. Some suffered a long history of foreign invasion, or colonisation, or civil war, some enjoyed centuries of undisturbed peace. Some had a long history of civilisation, some only emerged a few centuries or even decades ago.

How is it possible to apply a uniform and simplistic set of trade rules to all nations?

This is why the WTO exists and its rules on international trade exists. If the US feels unhappy about China's trade practices, complain to the WTO and let them decide whether there is concrete evidence of breach. The US built up this system, the US developed these world institutions, the US allowed China to be a member of the WTO not for China's benefit but for the US' interests, but now the US is accusing of this system being unfair? What kind of hypocrisy is this?

Maybe it's just too bad that China isn't Iraq or Afghanistan, so you couldn't just come and bomb your problems away.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
Don’t get suckered in with all the pretty sound bites. The trade war has nothing to do with ‘fair’ trade or even trade ‘abuses’, but everything to do with China’s push up the value chain.

Just look at the sequence of events and the ridiculous demands America is making.

America cares nothing about fairness, they only care about continued American world dominance.

China escaping the middle income trade and developing technologies on par or even superior to American tech would end American global hegemony, which is why they are starting the trade war.

But of course, that doesn’t sound at all reasonable or ‘fair’, so they need to keep repeating the same honied lies to get the masses to endure the economic pain to continue with this new crusade.
 
Jul 14, 2018
now I read
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"China capable of coping with the reduction of US
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imports

After the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods, China will significantly reduce the import of US soybeans. However, China is fully capable of coping with the import gap of soybeans, according to China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center.

The countermeasure of China imposing a 25 percent tax on US soybeans will cost an extra 700-800 yuan ($105-120) per ton, while Brazilian soybeans will only cost around 300 yuan ($45) per ton. In fact, the prominent competitive disadvantage of US soybeans has resulted in the cancelation of 615,000 tons of imports for three weeks by June 28, according to an expert from the information center.

South America is expected to see a significant expansion of its soybean industry due to the Brazil soybean harvest this year. Also, countries along the “
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” will likely expand planting operations, the expert added.

In addition to broadening the overseas sources of soybeans, this is a great opportunity for China to increase domestic soybean production and look for soybean substitutes.

The highest futures of US soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade have dropped 14 percent, which suggests a heavy potential loss for US soybean farmers.

In the past 20 years, some 85 percent of the global soybean trade came from China, and China will continue to remain the main engine, but China’s gains will unlikely be passed onto US soybean farmers."

link:
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now
Chinese firms plan more soybean meal substitute imports to offset plunge in U.S. soybean imports
Xinhua| 2018-08-19 16:08:54
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Chinese companies are confident in securing overseas supplies of soybeans and soybean meal substitutes to counter the fall in imports of U.S. soybeans, according to industry insiders.

A survey of related firms points to widespread readiness and proactiveness in the industry as Chinese firms turn to more competitive suppliers from South America and other parts of the world.

During the May-August period, over 36 million tonnes of South American soybeans arrived in China, with more to come in November.

State-owned grains trader COFCO has made inquiries on canola, cottonseed and sunflower seed meals with countries including India, Canada, and Ukraine to fill in the gap left by reduced U.S. imports, said Zhao Changjiang, an official with the company.

Canadian canola meal could be an option for Chinese animal feed demands as it is cheaper, according to Liu Yueshu, deputy general manager of operations at Zhongken Guobang, a major soybean processing enterprise based in Tianjin.

"Canadian canola meal set to arrive in December is priced at about 2,300 yuan (about 334 U.S. dollars) per tonne, 150 yuan cheaper than that traded under the January 2019 futures contract at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange," Liu said.

The industry is also adopting nutritionally equivalent soybean meal substitutes thanks to technological advances.

"Soybean meal is not the only source of protein in animal feed," said industry analyst Wang Changmei. "Meal from canola, cottonseed, sunflower seed, peanut and palm kernel can all be substitutes."

Peanut meal, for example, contains more crude protein than soybean meal, Wang said.

Current reserves of soybeans are also sufficient.

A price drop in pork has seen a dampened demand for soybean meal since May, with 400,000 tonnes less per month than expectations. China's reserves of imported soybeans are expected to increase by 3 million tonnes from the same period last year by the end of September.

The country's soybean processing firms will have relatively ample supply of raw materials before next January, industry estimates showed.
 
Mixing up cause and effect.
Best part of Europe was under Turkish occupation prior of the industrial revolution.
At the same time you can compare the Spanish empire with the British one, and the difference will be striking.

And don't forget, every country (western or not) behave by the same way, Japan wasn't capable to invade Manchuria , without the technological advantage learnt from the Europeans.

You can argue about that the Japanese Damiyos was very peacefully prior of meeting the Europeans, and they cached the animal spirit from them.

Or as an alternative explanation (and more probable) every country try to dominate above other countries , and the more advanced more capable to do that.

And the "efficient market" is not important if China want to stay on the level of 20-50% of the per-capita economical performance of the USA/Europe.

In that case it will do nothing else just copy over with time lag the copy able parts of the systems developed by other countries , and the GDP level will depend on the information flow between those countries.


In that reading the trade war is the biggest danger for China, because its capability to copy will be seriously restricted.

OR, China can develop its own market based institutional system, and can left in the dust the USA/Europe : )
Western societies (and some like Japan's) were warmongering barbarians who coincidentally stumbled and warred their way to wealth when their target societies happened to experience internal discord and some had fallen behind at the technology of war when these conflicts erupted.

Warmongering barbaric traits and PTSD ingrained in Western European societies translated socio-economically into institutionalized egoism and egotism such as systematic racism and rationalization of extreme economic exploitation ranging from slavery and colonization to more modern disguised and nuanced forms.

Only after accumulating massive amounts of wealth, experiencing corresponding internal discord due to their own internal deficiencies though exporting much of it through more wars and colonization, enjoying relative regional peace then getting a taste of their own medicine via the two "World" Wars did some of these Western societies evolve a bit to become more civilized.

Internal systemic problems continue to mount for the international and national "order" Western societies built and true to form some of their current inheritors instinctively fall back on warmongering barbaric exploitative ways that are the root cause of these problems to begin with while believing too much in their own tall tales such as the likes of you.
 

Red Moon

Junior Member
LOL "rich Americans" as in "the Kremlin":
As far as I can tell from those charts alone, the authors are arguing simply that certain amounts of the Russian holdings sold off recently *may* have gone to Belgium and Cayman Islands, since they show increases in the same period. Maybe you can provide some text with those charts that shows otherwise, but there's nothing above which indicates the Kremlin owns accounts in the Cayman Islands.
 
As far as I can tell from those charts alone, the authors are arguing simply that certain amounts of the Russian holdings sold off recently *may* have gone to Belgium and Cayman Islands, since they show increases in the same period. Maybe you can provide some text with those charts that shows otherwise, but there's nothing above which indicates the Kremlin owns accounts in the Cayman Islands.
it's funny how you try to be funny by pretending not to have understood I was joking
 
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