Trade War with China


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Are you sure we talk about the same country?

Do you know that the Boxer "rebellion" target was to support the central government, and to get rid of the foreigners (Europeans)?

Before 1600/1700 China was THE civilised country on the Earth, they didn't cared too much outside of the kingdom.

At 1850 Europe become as powerful as China, and by 1900 the political class of China recognised that the advantage of the Europeans method is not simply a temporal thing , like the mongols, but a exponentially growing gap between the capability of the imperial china and the capability of any European country.

The Chinese become dissatisfied due to that, the elite wasn't capable to protect them and they lifestyle.

By 1900 the Europeans (And Japanese who was faster to copy part of the European methods) had full freedom of action in the Empire, and the Imperial army was not capable to defend the area of China.

Mao get the support to do whatever he see as necessary to close the gap between China and the Europeans due to this.

There is a reason why the Chinese(and before Japanese) learn European science, the methods developed by Germans, British,French , Swiss etc. scientist.

In China they teach Newton-Leibniz, Maxwell, and so on.

The interesting is these technical methods are the results of the legal / corporate system, not the reason of them. : D

So by simply copy them technology the Chinese making the same mistake like the Soviets.
Aiming to throw out the foreign invaders that one's corrupt and incompetent government was defeated by is both 1) indeed an example of dissatisfaction with internal systemic problems and 2) not the same as looking to catch up with the foreigners.

Military technology, other scientific knowledge and methods, and various socio-economic systems are all tools/"technology" China has been learning, using, adapting and developing further which have all served it well enough because the drive is self-improvement.

Self-improvement is inherently open-ended in absolute terms, within the more limited scope of relative terms it is "catching up" while others are better off but that is just a "side effect" or secondary effect that may be achieved then superseded along the way.
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
3- Mao got his support from peasants who wanted land reform. Of course, this is an oversimplification, but it had nothing to do with "closing the gap between China and Europeans". If you're talking about the GLF, that too was an failed initiative caused by a lack of understanding of the underlying principles.
You say that Mao has support because distributed land between the peasants?
There is not so much confirmed data about the Big March , but considering the later collectivisation I am sure the best description of it should be "he had very good public relations skills".

So, he was better politician than the ROC guys.
But the opportunity opened up due to the Japanese occupation for the Communist party. I mean, if the central government ( either imperial or ROC) managed to secure the borders of China then there should no big march, support for any extremist and so on. The political class of China was satisfied with the system for 1000 years, they needed a big external shock to change the stance.

But generally you support my view : )

4- In China, they teach all science. Science is science, and it's foolish to try to label it as "European" science.
It created in Europe, by Europeans. How else you can call it?

5- What mistake is China making like the Soviets?
Implementing technical parts of the system instead of the core principles.
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
Aiming to throw out the foreign invaders that one's corrupt and incompetent government was defeated by is both 1) indeed an example of dissatisfaction with internal systemic problems and 2) not the same as looking to catch up with the foreigners.

Military technology, other scientific knowledge and methods, and various socio-economic systems are all tools/"technology" China has been learning, using, adapting and developing further which have all served it well enough because the drive is self-improvement.

Self-improvement is inherently open-ended in absolute terms, within the more limited scope of relative terms it is "catching up" while others are better off but that is just a "side effect" or secondary effect that may be achieved then superseded along the way.
Cause and effect.

China and its politician class was satisfied with the system for 1000s of years.
They never considered any change/improvement in the system UNTIL they haven't been able to protect the Chinese land by military means.
And it wasn't due to the last empress, she had the full support of the Chinese elite.

Military technology, other scientific knowledge and methods, and various socio-economic systems are all tools/"technology" China has been learning, using, adapting and developing further which have all served it well enough because the drive is self-improvement.

Self-improvement is inherently open-ended in absolute terms, within the more limited scope of relative terms it is "catching up" while others are better off but that is just a "side effect" or secondary effect that may be achieved then superseded along the way.
The "self improvement" , "development" and so on is the side effect of a system created in Europe in the 1600s.
It wasn't interested for China for 300 years, until the development of those countries reached a level when they managed to do whatever they wish with China.
 
Cause and effect.

China and its politician class was satisfied with the system for 1000s of years.
They never considered any change/improvement in the system UNTIL they haven't been able to protect the Chinese land by military means.
And it wasn't due to the last empress, she had the full support of the Chinese elite.

The "self improvement" , "development" and so on is the side effect of a system created in Europe in the 1600s.
It wasn't interested for China for 300 years, until the development of those countries reached a level when they managed to do whatever they wish with China.
LOL, since you are so blatantly deliberately wrong or ignorant as well as Eurocentric there is no point in discussing this further with you.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Come on guys back to the topic. It is futile to talk about pas the fact is China now goes gang bang into science and technology period
It is quiet now No more twit or threatening announcement I guess it is dawn on them that it will be tough fight . blustering is not going to help them
Anyway look like the farm belt is going to take the brunt of this trade war. They overwhelmingly vote for Trumph now they reap what they sow.

The arrogant western press was convince that Brazil can't possibly meet the China's soy demand because the production was max out. Like they say circumstances change. More and more Brazilian farmer are converting their sugar cane field into soy And once the US farm industry lost that market it is hard to get back into the game

Brazil's farmers dump sugar for soy as trade war boosts Chinese demand

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ITAÍ, Brazil (Reuters) - Last year, Brazilian farmer Gustavo Lopes sized up his sugarcane plantation against his soybean fields.
A corn crop is seen at Cercado Grande farm, where expansion of grains cultivation led the farm to scrap a contract with a sugar mill for cane planting in Itajai, Sao Paulo state, Brazil April 1, 2018. REUTERS/Marcelo Rodrigues Teixeira
He looked at global trends, including rising U.S.-China trade tensions and a stubborn sugar-market glut. Then he tore up the last of his cane fields and ditched a decades-old supply contract with a local sugar mill.

Lopes planted soybeans across his 1,600-hectare (4,000-acre) farm in Sao Paulo state - a bet that paid off earlier this month when Chinese buyers loaded up on South American soy after Beijing imposed tariffs on U.S. beans. The farmer got his highest price ever for soybeans.

“It was unusual for this time of year,” Lopes said in an interview at his farm, where he’s prepping to plant another soy crop in September. “It’s got to be a result of Chinese demand.”


Shifting trade flows are redefining the Brazilian landscape, spurring more farmers to align their crops with Chinese appetites. The nation’s soy plantings have expanded by 2 million hectares in two years - an area the size of New Jersey - while land used for cane shrank by nearly 400,000 hectares, according to government data.

China’s growing demand for meat has supercharged soy imports for animal feed. The Asian nation paid $20.3 billion last year for 53.8 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil, nearly half its output — and up from 22.8 million tonnes in 2012.

A new 25 percent Chinese tariff on U.S. soybeans - a retaliation for U.S. levies by President Donald Trump - is expected to boost Brazil’s soy exports to an all-time record this year.

Brazilian soybean exports to China rose to nearly 36 million tonnes in the first half of 2018, up 6 percent from a year ago. In July, they surged 46 percent from the same month a year earlier to 10.2 million tonnes.

Brazil’s grains boom has it rivaling United States as the world’s top soy producer this year, after outpacing U.S. exports over the past five years.

Slideshow (2 Images)
All that soy is eating into Brazil’s sugarcane belt, which is reeling from sugar prices near multi-year lows. Chinese sugar tariffs have weighed on the global market for the sweetener as developed nations continue to cut back consumption.

“We lost 3,000 hectares of cane area to grains in the last two years,” said Roberto de Rezende Barbosa, chief executive of Nova América, one of the largest cane growers in Brazil, managing 110,000 hectares.

Rezende said he had seen farmers migrating from sugarcane into grains in nearly every state where both crops are viable.

SHUTTERED SUGAR MILLS
The crop swap is catching on quickly with farmers, threatening the survival of cane mills they once supplied.
About 60 cane mills have closed in the past five years in Brazil’s center-south cane region. About 270 that remain open must fight harder than ever to secure cane supplies.

Agroconsult, an agribusiness consultancy, said it has received requests from mills to calculate the premium they will have to pay producers to keep them from switching to grains.

Douglas Duarte, a director at the Londra mill in Itaí - which used to lease part of the Lopes farm - said he has plans to add 500,000 tonnes of capacity at the mill but has yet to line up enough cane supplies.

With so many farmers focused on grain, Duarte has worked to sign leases with families who are not interested in actively managing their land.

“In places where the owners have expertise with grains — the equipment and everything — then you can’t compete,” he said.

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In some places, the closing of cane mills has also discouraged planting.

Farmer Antonio de Morais Ribeiro Neto gave up planting cane last year after the closure of the sugar mill that he supplied, called Usina Maracaju. Biosev SA (
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), the Brazilian sugar arm of global commodities trader Louis Dreyfus Co, shut it down in a cost-cutting move.

So Riberio replaced 400 hectares of cane with soybeans, adding to the 2,000 hectares of soy he already had planted. As he watched the U.S.-China trade war escalate, he bought two new grain silos, more soybean-planting machinery and a new harvester.

‘BETTING BIG’
Plenty of sugar mills, which often grow part of the cane they process, have realized they cannot fight the soy boom and decided to plant their own soybeans as part of a crop rotation strategy.


Cane fields typically need to be replanted after five or six years, and mills are using the renovation window to produce soybeans.

“In the past, those areas subject to renovation would be left fallow until the following year,” said Victor Campanelli, who has exploited the niche.

His firm, Agro Pastoril Paschoal Campanelli, manages the planning, inputs and equipment for sugar mills’ one-off soy crops, sharing in the profits.

While the grains bonanza has many farmers flush with cash, some are wary about relying so much on one crop and one massive importer.

“This Chinese demand has attracted all the farmers,” said Marcos Cesar Brunozzi, who switched part of his land from sugar to grains in the state of Minas Gerais. “I hope the whole situation doesn’t change suddenly, because we are betting big.”

Lopes has no regrets about tearing up his cane fields.

Last year, his sugarcane yielded a net profit of 480 reais per hectare - compared to 2,600 reais per hectare for his soy fields.

“I know it won’t always be that way,” he said. “But still, it’s a huge difference.”

Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira; Editing by Brad Haynes and Brian Thevenot

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Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
Come on guys back to the topic. It is futile to talk about pas the fact is China now goes gang bang into science and technology period
It is quiet now No more twit or threatening announcement I guess it is dawn on them that it will be tough fight . blustering is not going to help them
Anyway look like the farm belt is going to take the brunt of this trade war. They overwhelmingly vote for Trumph now they reap what they sow.

The arrogant western press was convince that Brazil can't possibly meet the China's soy demand because the production was max out. Like they say circumstances change. More and more Brazilian farmer are converting their sugar cane field into soy And once the US farm industry lost that market it is hard to get back into the game
The Machinenfabric Reinhausen (never heard by anyone reading this forum) had a sales of 0.75 billion $ last year with 3500 employee.
So, few dozen small company in the US has as much sale as the soybean import of China, and no one take note if say the RM and few more company goes to bankruptcy.

So, it looks well in the news, but actually has 0 impact on the US economy.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
The Machinenfabric Reinhausen (never heard by anyone reading this forum) had a sales of 0.75 billion $ last year with 3500 employee.
So, few dozen small company in the US has as much sale as the soybean import of China, and no one take note if say the RM and few more company goes to bankruptcy.

So, it looks well in the news, but actually has 0 impact on the US economy.
If that is the case why the need for 12 billion subsidy "bayout" from Trump administration
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Or why the price of soy drop from $10 to $8 per bushel
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tidalwave

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Well folks, Keep in mind Trump doesn't mind US farmers losing China market as evidented by him pressuring EU to pick up the slack by buying more US agriculture.

If no economic deal with China which Trump wants China to give up tech development then he will settle for the thing he wants. That's empty out China manufacturing sector. The zero sum mentality. Winning by making opponents lose more.

He does not mind US companies lose money in China as long as he see US companies outsourced to China to move out. Maybe move back to US or move to South East Asia.

.


As long as China lose more than US companies losing out, then he think he win. Very hegemonic and nasty mentality.

So, once China lose out alot of the US outsourced companies, it won't have enough jobs to those migrant workers and cause social and economic upheaval that's why I think the Tibet Water to xin-jiang is so important , it can immediately absorbs 30 to 40 millions people andengage in the big project and resettle there. It can potentially absorb to upward 200 million based on study. To build a new mini China there.


So, losing US agriculture to China is not a big deal to Trump, he already factor them in. Now he started the trade war. Both parties of Congress support him widely. So he setup this blueprint, next US president either Democrat or Republican will pursue such cause.

So, the only thing matter on China side is purging of US tech, make US tech companies lose out market share and then .... Here the most important..
Once China becomes tech independent and not buy US tech, but important not buy Taiwan, Korea or even Japanese tech products.. Then those countries will have much less protection money to give out to US and hence US political alliance will disintegrated.. Thats the end game.

That's the design by US. Semiconductor is considered the crowning jewel of US tech,and it willing to passed it on to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan so they can spread out and make money and pay up to US and keep US hegemony alive.
That's why US so upset about China giving all in to develop it's Semiconductor.
 
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tidalwave

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During this China and US trade war stalemale, US will intensify the Taiwan card, it will push it to the full independence.

Well TSMC ==Taiwan, TSMC goes down , Taiwan will go down.

Precision strike on TSMC Fabs will bring Taiwan down.

Taiwan will missiles strike on SMIC Fabs at Shanghai as retaliation.

So, it makes sense for SMIC branches out to Chengdu, Xi'an, Beijing.
 

Anlsvrthng

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If that is the case why the need for 12 billion subsidy "bayout" from Trump administration
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Or why the price of soy drop from $10 to $8 per bushel
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Two years low price doesn't spell soybean maker Armageddon, considering that there is no trade war in every two year.

12 billion $ spent for PR , it is bargain : )
 
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