Trade War with China


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Anlsvrthng

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GEEZ Man, just look at your own graph. The first is already showing a direct correlation with yield rates and inflation. You don't even know how to read your own graphs.

It is not correlation.
The FED tried to increase the inflation by decrease the yield, and failed.


Now you have to understand what happened on the second graph. QE is happening to mop up all the excess debt that caused the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The economy is recovering and growing. Maybe you should be honest and show the rest of the graph that includes 2014 to 2017 where the curve flattens because the Fed is in uncharted territory and uncharted territory makes investors nervous.

It is straight simple: You said that the increased treasury holdings by FED increase the inflation.
Simply by checking the graph it showing that the treasury rate was low AND the inflation was low AND the treasury holding of FED was high.

So , NO the theories that saying "bad things happens if the FED buy the Chinese treasuries" is false.

However the FED can gives only dollars for those treasuries, still a question what the Chinese central bank will do with the dollar notes? Or with the dollar deposit at the FED?
Considering that the deposit will not pay interest ....
 
now I read
China decides to impose additional tariffs on 16 bln USD of U.S. imports
Xinhua| 2018-08-08 22:19:52
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China has decided to impose additional tariffs on imported products from the United States worth about 16 billion U.S. dollars, according to an official statement released Wednesday.

Approved by the State Council, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has decided to impose additional duties of 25 percent on the 16-billion-dollar of U.S. products after making proper adjustments to the second part of a list of the products subject to the tariffs.

The additional duties will take effect at 12:01 on Aug. 23, 2018.

The list has been appropriately adjusted after taking into account the advice of related government departments, industry associations, and enterprises to best protect the interest of domestic consumers and companies.

Alongside the statement, the customs tariff commission published a final version of the second part of the list on the website of the Ministry of Finance.

In June, the customs authority unveiled a list of products from the United States worth 50 billion U.S. dollars that will be subject to additional tariffs in response to U.S. announcement to impose additional duties on Chinese imports.

Additional duties on the U.S. products in the first part of the list, worth 34 billion U.S. dollars, came into force on July 6.
 
now I read
China decides to impose additional tariffs on 16 bln USD of U.S. imports
Xinhua| 2018-08-08 22:19:52
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Note that this is in response to the US imposing additional tariffs on $16B USD of imports from China.

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ROUND 2: US, China announce newest round of tariffs as Trump's trade war shows no sign of slowing down
Bob Bryan 4h

Trump Xi
President Trump welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.

Reuters/Carlos Barria

The US will impose a 25% tariff on $16 billion worth of Chinese goods starting August 23.

The tariff will mostly apply to industrial equipment, like tractors and chemicals.

In response, the Chinese government also announced a 25% tariff on $16 billion worth of US goods that will go into effect the same day.

The move is the latest escalation of the trade war between President Donald Trump and China.

The US and China rolled out a new wave of tariffs as the trade war between the two countries rolls on.

The US will impose a 25% tariff on another $16 billion worth of Chinese goods starting August 23, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced Tuesday .

The new set of measures are the second tranche of tariffs that President Donald Trump originally announced in March, following an initial round of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports that went into effect in early July. It represents the latest salvo in the ever-expanding trade war between the US and China.

The 279 items that will be hit with tariffs at the end of August are mostly industrial goods such as tractors, plastic tubes, and measurement equipment like speedometers.

In response to the Trump administration's announcement, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that the country would impose an equal tariff of 25% on $16 billion worth of US goods coming into China. The list of goods subject to the tariffs includes energy products, like coal, as well as large items like cars.

Trump has threatened to levy a 25% tariff on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to the US — a move that would blow open the disagreement between the countries. China responded by promising to hit $60 billion worth of US goods coming into the country with tariffs.

The Trump administration has maintained that the tariffs are necessary to force China into changing economic behavior it says harms the US. For instance, the major complaint is about the theft of US intellectual property by Chinese firms.

China, on the other hand, argues that the tariffs violate World Trade Organization rules and only harm both countries. Beijing is expected to hit $16 billion worth of US goods with equal tariffs in response to Tuesday's move.

Economists warn that a prolonged trade war between China and the US could end up increasing prices for American consumers and hurting US businesses. But given the lack of talks and Trump's unclear goals, the trade war doesn't appear to be close to a resolution.

Here's a timeline of the US-China trade war so far:

March 1: President Donald Trump announces tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum , including metals from China.

March 22: Trump announces plans to hit $50 billion worth of Chinese goods with a 25% tariff. China announces tariffs in retaliation to the steel and aluminum duties and promises a response to the latest US announcement.

April 3: The US trade representative announces a list of Chinese goods subject to the tariffs. There is a mandatory 60-day comment period for industries to ask for exemptions from the tariffs.

April 4: China rolls out a list of more than 100 US goods worth roughly $50 billion that are subject to retaliatory tariffs.

May 19: After a meeting, the two countries announce the outline of a trade deal to avoid the tariffs.

May 29: The White House announces the tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods will move forward , with the final list of goods released June 15. The move appears to wreck the nascent trade deal.

June 15: Trump rolls out the final list of goods subject to new tariffs . Chinese imports worth $34 billion would be subject to the new 25% tariff as of July 6, with another $16 billion worth of imports subject to the tariff at a later date. China retaliates with an equivalent set of tariffs.

June 18: Trump threatens a 10% tariff on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

July 6: The first tranche of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods takes effect; China responds in kind .

July 10: The US releases an initial list of an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that could be subject to a 10% tariff.

August 1: Washington more than doubles the value of its tariff threats against Beijing, announcing plans to increase the size of proposed duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%.

August 3: China announces that the country will impose tariffs of various rates on another $60 billion worth of US goods if Trump moves forward with his latest threat.

August 7: The US announces that the second tranche of tariffs, which will hit $16 billion worth of Chinese goods, will go into effect on August 23.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
Sort of trade war news since I heard part of the demands from Trump to China was regarding the US garbage problem. Where I live the regional garbage disposal company is warning people that inspectors will be checking everyone's garbage cans to see if there's proper separation of recyclable materials and fines will be imposed if they're not.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
The chatter in the western media is now about US is winning the trade war, citing stock market and Yuan sliding or Xi is cracking under pressure .Well Chinese stock market has always been more volatile than Wall Street due to preponderance of small time investor vs institutional investor in US.

The media mistaken Chinese academician as formal opposition to Xi policy. Well Chinese academician has always been pro west Since they made of people in 50's and 60's who went gaga on Hollywood and suffer tremendous inferiority complex due to poor economy in 60's China
Anyway as always they are surprise at Chinese resistance and they retaliate dollar per dollar at Trumph tariff.

Well reality is something else China import mostly commodity good that can be easily substituted with product from different supplier. America import mostly manufactured good that cannot be easily replaced

China says US farmers may never regain market share lost in trade war
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The country has ‘basically stopped’ importing soybeans from United States, according to vice agriculture minister
PUBLISHED : Saturday, 11 August, 2018, 9:31pm
UPDATED : Saturday, 11 August, 2018, 11:36pm

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10 Aug 2018
China can easily find other countries to buy agricultural goods from instead of the US, its vice agriculture minister said, warning that American farmers could permanently lose their share of the Chinese market as a result of the trade war.

“Many countries have the willingness and they totally have the capacity to take over the market share the US is enjoying in China. If other countries become reliable suppliers for China, it will be very difficult for the US to regain the market,” Han Jun told official Xinhua news agency in an interview on Friday.


He also warned that American farmers could lose the position in the Chinese market they have spent several decades building up. Han said they may not be able to make up the losses brought by retaliatory tariffs, even with the White House’s planned US$12 billion aid package for farmers caught in the dispute.

He said Beijing had imposed duties on 90 per cent of the agricultural goods the country imports from the United States since the trade war kicked off at the start of last month, with limited impact on China.

“Levying additional tariffs will cause a great decrease in exports of US agricultural products to China,” Han said. “But the impact on China is very limited, due to the diversified import sources.”

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China and the US have been locked in a tit-for-tat trade war since early last month. Beijing unveiled its latest
retaliatory tariffs on US$16 billion of American goods on Wednesday, matching Washington’s move to slap 25 per cent duties on the same value of Chinese imports.

The vice agriculture minister also said Chinese companies had “basically stopped” importing soybeans from US farmers since July 6 and would deal with the impact by finding alternative ingredients for animal feeds.

China is the world’s biggest importer of soybeans, which it uses to make cooking oil, biodiesel and the meal to feed livestock.

Han said the country was expecting soybean imports from the US to drop dramatically this year and that preparations had already been made. “China is totally able to handle the shortfall created by a drop in American soybean imports,” Han told Xinhua.

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China has been buying more soybeans from other countries and promoting alternatives to soybeans to feed livestock, as well as pushing farmers to plant more domestic crops. Before the trade war erupted, China was on track to import 300 million tonnes of soybeans from the United States this year.

The country imported about US$24.1 billion of agricultural products from the United States last year, accounting for 19 per cent of its total farm imports worth some US$125.86 billion, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Han said that starting from July 6, Beijing had imposed 25 per cent tariffs on 517 types of American agricultural products – including nuts, soybeans, cotton, fruit and meat. Their combined value last year was about US$21 billion, he said.

He also warned that additional duties on American agricultural goods were in the pipeline.

Beijing has said it is ready to impose tariffs on US$60 billion of American products if US President Donald Trump – who has accused China of amassing a huge trade surplus through unfair trade practices – goes ahead with plans to slap extra duties on US$200 billion of Chinese goods.

The next list will include 387 types of agricultural products – including coffee, vegetables and vegetable oils – which last year had a total value of around US$2.9 billion.
As a result, almost all agricultural products China buys from the US will face additional tariffs once Beijing’s latest countermeasures take effect, Han said.

The European Union would not be able to make up the losses for US soybean producers, who will be left with a huge surplus without China buying the grain from them, according to Han. He said although the EU had agreed to import more soybeans from America, it would only buy 13 million to 14 million tonnes of soybeans a year over the next decade, according to estimates – compared with the more than 30 tonnes of the grain China bought from the US last year.

But Han admitted that Washington’s tariffs would impact China’s fruit, vegetable and seafood producers because it would not be easy for them to find alternative export destinations in the short term. He said Beijing would help exporters find other countries to sell their products to and try to boost domestic consumption instead, to minimise the impact of the tariffs.

The United States was the third largest market for Chinese fruit and fifth largest for vegetables last year, with the exports valued at a combined US$1.84 billion.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Chinese semiconductor indsutry is healthy they are increasing the profit via Jsch. They are amking progress on 14nm Finfet technology

China’s top chip maker SMIC sees revenue grow as state subsidies surge amid trade war
State subsidies for the semiconductor industry have surged more than 20 per cent from 2017, according to the company’s CFO

PUBLISHED : Friday, 10 August, 2018, 11:49am
UPDATED : Friday, 10 August, 2018, 12:23pm

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China’s biggest contract chip maker, SMIC, announced solid revenue growth for the second quarter as state subsidies soar amid the escalating trade war.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), which is listed in Hong Kong and the US, said its revenue for the second three months of the year reached US$890.7 million, up by 7.2 per cent from the previous quarter and 18.6 per cent year on year.

Profit for the second quarter declined 5 per cent from a year ago to US$31.7 million, or 5 cents per share.

“SMIC is in a period of transition and preparation,” said Zhao Haijun, co-chief executive officer of the company, in a conference call on Friday morning.

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State subsidies have surged since the beginning of the year, rising by more than 20 per cent from 2017, said Gao Yonggang, the company’s chief financial officer.

“The company received research and development subsidies worth about US$19 million from the state in the second quarter. For the whole year, the subsidies are expected to reach US$100 million,” he added.

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The executives said they have achieved significant progress in developing 14 nanometre FinFET technology – similar to the 16nm processing technology produced by the Taiwanese chip maker TSMC, which Apple adopted for its iPhone 7 core processor chips in 2016.

“The first version of the products is ready for circuit evaluation by customers,” Zhao said.

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The trade war between the US and China has so far had a “limited” impact, even though the firm relies heavily on equipment and wafers – thin slices of semiconductor material – from American suppliers.

“We have limited exposure on the end products, but we have been closely observing progress,” Zhao said.

The Trump administration on Tuesday finalised plans to impose new tariffs on US$16 billion worth of Chinese imports, mainly chemicals and electronic parts, which will bring the total value of products covered by the duties to US$50 billion by the end of the month.

“The tariff impact has still been relatively modest for the semiconductor industry as both sides are still avoiding directly targeting areas that both countries’ suppliers have high exposure to, including PCs, servers and smartphones, which account for a sizeable portion of chip demand,” said Randy Abrams, an analyst with Credit Suisse in Taipei.

He said Chinese chip makers still have an opportunity to benefit from domestic policy aimed at supporting the industry and building up a local ecosystem to enable better self-sufficiency.

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“For SMIC, there is still a wide gap in resources, scale and dollars – even with the government support – to match the leader TSMC, so it will take time, even with the broader support.

“The risk here is if foreign governments put more export controls on critical technology, though, to limit this progress,” he said.

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After the first batch of tariffs kicked off on July 6, only about 10 per cent of China’s tech exports to the US would come under the tariffs, according to a report issued by Credit Suisse.

“The latest US$200 billion tariff amount announced from the US and subject to a review in the next few months still largely spared direct technology categories, although it did add TVs and covers a number of consumer products (appliances, home products, tools, and seafood),” said the report issued in mid July.



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Anlsvrthng

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800px-1_AD_to_2003_AD_percent_GDP_contribution_of_China_to_world_GDP_with_history.png


Answer is what will happens with China if it closed out from world trade?
Europe started the growth in 1500-1600, and since that India / China try to catch up.
Question is did China managed to copy the European legal/economical system to survive without deep trade / intellectual relations?
 
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