Video is good But you must be in a position to not make videos or documentaries anymore about your industry because of it being THAT famed and immense. China must reach that stage. Core components and processes must be indigenized and made your own. China must have answers for SIEMENS, GE, ALSTOM, ABB, WESTINGHOUSE, WARTSILA, HONEYWELL, ROCKWELL COLLINS, PRATT&WHITNEY, MITSUBISHI, CUMMINS, ROLCE ROYCE, HYUNDAI HEAVY etc. It is halfway or less there. It must continue its struggle.
i agree with what you said. The recent challenges faced by ZTE should be a wake up call. However, China can block lots of US companies too if that happens i.e, TSMC vs Hwawei. Intel, Nvidia, Boeing, GM, Tesla, Caterpillar etc will lose 35 to 65% of their revenue. Entire Taiwanese economy will collapse( yes, COLLAPSE). Not even Japan or SK dares to directly challenge China. It is their biggest market/ source of revenue ( or the second biggest ,depending on the specific industries). The US cannot sustain the growth of capitalistic economies of these nations ( that depends on showing higher growth rate and profit every year). So, Huawei & China Inc has got some time.
What I propose is for China to wait a decade and be on the lookout for new technologies on the horizon. This is because the much infamous Moore's law in semiconductor industry has lost its prominence. The industry itself is in a state of weariness about the future. As the processes jump from 28 nm to 14nm to 10,7 and 3nm ,they are realizing that they have reached their limits and pushing any more for smaller etching process would be detrimental due to quantum tunneling and electric leakage ( I'm not so informed regarding these and only have vague ideas) . The lithography itself would need to change as nanolithography, EUV lithography etc are now being ordered or researched into. The biggest provider of EUV lithography machine is the netherland based ASML. They are the ones providing tools for the further push into <14 nm lithography.
China must research on how to reimagine computer processing as a whole or how to manufacture processors in a new efficient, cost competitive way. One reason China may not be THAT interested in investing in these fabrication labs is because they are capital intensive ( 10 to 20 billion dollars minimum) and they can only be used for a limited period ( 5 years ? ) The industry might have shifted to a new process by then. This is the reason why TSMC, Intel and Samsung are the only major players. China needs to also ensure the demand (less of a concern with 800 million consumer base). China must therefore bide the time and spend the money on research into the next big thing in processing. It can be a revolutionary new processor chip or a manufacturing process,but it must ultimately be one that can be improved upon for atleast 2 decades ,providing customers with improved processing capability every year or two.
You are absolute.Video is good But you must be in a position to not make videos or documentaries anymore about your industry because of it being THAT famed and immense. China must reach that stage. Core components and processes must be indigenized and made your own. China must have answers for SIEMENS, GE, ALSTOM, ABB, WESTINGHOUSE, WARTSILA, HONEYWELL, ROCKWELL COLLINS, PRATT&WHITNEY, MITSUBISHI, CUMMINS, ROLCE ROYCE, HYUNDAI HEAVY etc. It is halfway or less there. It must continue its struggle.
I've read about a breakthrough in the lithography machine from china last year but thought it was 28 nm ?! 90 nm is too " Insignificant" dare i say. I understand your concern and i share the same concern as you.BUT, one must understand that semiconductor and electronics equipment industry in general, is not a standalone industry. It needs cooperation ,unified decisions and planning - involving software developers, equipment manufactures, consumer demands, competition etc.Notice my thread is specifically about Huawei . not China in general because only huawei has the scale to make a difference.
Some of Semiconductor makers in China has products but not many customers and therefore cannot keep up. SMEE the only China semiconductor equipment that produces commercial grade lithography equipment but they achieved only 90nm and cannot further develope mainly lack of customers. Recent academic research group in Sichuan used different approach for lithography but they are not ready yet for commercial level production
But if Huawei is the one involved in equipment industry then it can attempt use its own equipment for manufacturing. I think the key. if something developed and no one used then its going nowhere.
i agree with what you said. The recent challenges faced by ZTE should be a wake up call. However, China can block lots of US companies too if that happens i.e, TSMC vs Hwawei. Intel, Nvidia, Boeing, GM, Tesla, Caterpillar etc will lose 35 to 65% of their revenue. Entire Taiwanese economy will collapse( yes, COLLAPSE). Not even Japan or SK dares to directly challenge China. It is their biggest market/ source of revenue ( or the second biggest ,depending on the specific industries). The US cannot sustain the growth of capitalistic economies of these nations ( that depends on showing higher growth rate and profit every year). So, Huawei & China Inc has got some time.
What I propose is for China to wait a decade and be on the lookout for new technologies on the horizon. This is because the much infamous Moore's law in semiconductor industry has lost its prominence. The industry itself is in a state of weariness about the future. As the processes jump from 28 nm to 14nm to 10,7 and 3nm ,they are realizing that they have reached their limits and pushing any more for smaller etching process would be detrimental due to quantum tunneling and electric leakage ( I'm not so informed regarding these and only have vague ideas) . The lithography itself would need to change as nanolithography, EUV lithography etc are now being ordered or researched into. The biggest provider of EUV lithography machine is the netherland based ASML. They are the ones providing tools for the further push into <14 nm lithography.
China must research on how to reimagine computer processing as a whole or how to manufacture processors in a new efficient, cost competitive way. One reason China may not be THAT interested in investing in these fabrication labs is because they are capital intensive ( 10 to 20 billion dollars minimum) and they can only be used for a limited period ( 5 years ? ) The industry might have shifted to a new process by then. This is the reason why TSMC, Intel and Samsung are the only major players. China needs to also ensure the demand (less of a concern with 800 million consumer base). China must therefore bide the time and spend the money on research into the next big thing in processing. It can be a revolutionary new processor chip or a manufacturing process,but it must ultimately be one that can be improved upon for atleast 2 decades ,providing customers with improved processing capability every year or two.
I've read about a breakthrough in the lithography machine from china last year but thought it was 28 nm ?! 90 nm is too " Insignificant" dare i say. I understand your concern and i share the same concern as you.BUT, one must understand that semiconductor and electronics equipment industry in general, is not a standalone industry. It needs cooperation ,unified decisions and planning - involving software developers, equipment manufactures, consumer demands, competition etc.
For example, take the gaming industry- every year there is demand for more quality graphics, better rendering tech, higher framerate, better latency etc in gaming. Even display technology is improving jumping from 4K to 8K . So graphic card manufacturer like Nvidea and AMD starts to work on improving their graphics card.Sometimes it's the other way around.
China lacks this ecosystem. China must have it's own operating systems ( like Windows), architecture( like ARM, x86) etc... otherwise it will be a forever losing struggle. Recent acquisition of ARM by Japan from England, to me, seem to have many strategic angles. Japan will have a bigger say in Huwawei processor design ( as ARM tech is licensed to make Android processors?). My knowledge is a bit limited compared to you but I think you must not only just concentrate on Huawei. It must be a huge nation wide, government directed response.
It is ok if you only want to concentrate on Huawei tho. If that is the case then i think Huawei must be ready to take risks and sink billions into R&D efforts.These efforts will take 5 to 8 years to bear fruit.
The digital technology dead, the exponential growth ended.
The digital was an inefficient way to use the power/transistors, but the exponential growth masked it.
The future will be completely different than today. Maybe there will be again programmer mathematicians again, not code making operators : ) .
So, investing into the current technology can be a dead end.
The "neuron network " and similar technologies practically the 50/60s analogue computers in modern cloth.
They was killed the inefficient, but extremely cheap logical gates.
Interesting: The ARM and the PowerVR British company, they supply practically all apple/android phone core CPU and graphics technology.
And for many other stuff as well, the ARM is quite popular for everything, example all Nintendo handheld used the ARM since the gameboy(1989).