The Sino-Japanese Naval War of 2012

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solarz

Brigadier
To all those who put forth the argument that the JMSDF is better equipped and better trained, and thus Japan has the advantage in a naval conflict with China, let's take a look at 2 earthquakes.

In 2008, the Sichuan Earthquake caused 70,000 deaths. The Chinese government reacted swiftly, and the entire nation mobilized to send aid and rescue to the afflicted region. Water built up behind landslides and formed quake lakes that threatened to overflood and dwarf the casualty count of the earthquake. Officials evacuated hundreds of thousands of people while PLA Engineers worked around the clock to drain the lakes. In the end, no flooding of any significance occurred, and what could have been an even greater disaster than the earthquake itself was averted. 3 years later, Wenchuan, the epicenter of the quake, was completely rebuilt.

In 2011, a magnitude 9 earthquake struck off the east coast of Japan, triggering a massive tsunami that killed more than 15,000 people. Government response to the disaster was slow and roundly criticized across the globe. Even worse, they attempted to cover up the seriousness of the tsunami-induced Fukushima nuclear meltdown, resulting in millions of Japanese being exposed to unsafe levels of radiation. Over a year later, Japan is still grappling with the aftermath of the meltdowns.


Technology is important, but war is about more than just technology. Logistics, preparation, and government crisis response are just as critical factors as technological advancement.

As for training, let's just say that some forumites consistently underestimate the competence of the PLA, and overestimate the competence of their NATO allies.
 
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no_name

Colonel
Taiwan has stated its position clearly. They prefer to sit any conflict out

Taiwan won't side with China in isle dispute with Japan: Ma
POLITICS AUG. 22, 2012 - 07:10AM JST ( 22 COMMENTS )

President Ma Ying-jeou said Tuesday Taiwan would not join hands with China against Japan in a territorial dispute involving an archipelago in the East China Sea claimed by all three sides. The dispute has traditionally… Read

Does this means that if Japan decides to capture the island and China did nothing then they will still do nothing?
Ma should have just remained ambiguous.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
2nd, at the time, the US was well aware of the massive forces preparing to attack and easily could have defeated them hands down...and at a time when neither China or the Soviets could have done anything about it...but the US chose not to employ the weapons it had at its disposal.

Say what now?

Firstly, the US and allies had no idea the Chinese were going to attack, despite explicit warnings from Beijing, and that has been one of the excuses most commonly aired by western historians to try to explain the unprecedented defeat and long retreat of the US military.

Secondly, unless you are referring to nuclear weapons, I do not see what you might think the US was holding back that could have 'easily defeated them hands down'.

All of that aside however does not change the most fundamental fact that we are talking about a Naval/Sea battle here where the advantages are on the US/Japanese side, not a ground war with the largest Army in the world.

Come on old buddy, surely you are aware of Lt.Gen Pau Van Priper's achievements during Millennium Challenge 2002?

Obviously the results from that war game should not be taken out of context to suggest missile boats are better than a balanced fleet, but it should still demonstrate quite effectively that war is not just about balancing paper specs. This is not top trumps.

Another thing to consider is that direct US involvement in a Sino-Japanese shooting war over the Diaoyu Islands is far from guaranteed. The US left their 'special relationship' buddy Britain flapping in the breeze when the Argentines invaded the Falklands, so it's far from unprecedented if they did the same to the Japanese.

I would stop myself from going further because I think this is a pretty pointless thread that will only serve as a chest-thumping exercise for the supporters of all sides. There is not going to be a war, and even if there was, there are so many unknown variables that the outcome will depend pretty much entirely on how you care to set the parameters for the war.
 

NikeX

Banned Idiot
Say what now?


Another thing to consider is that direct US involvement in a Sino-Japanese shooting war over the Diaoyu Islands is far from guaranteed. The US left their 'special relationship' buddy Britain flapping in the breeze when the Argentines invaded the Falklands, so it's far from unprecedented if they did the same to the Japanese.
.

I am afraid you are mistaken with that quote as the Americans were fully pledged to provide Britain with a replacement carrier had they lost a carrier to Argentina.

"...President Ronald Reagan approved the Royal Navy's request to borrow the Sea Harrier-capable amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima (LPH-2) if the British lost an aircraft carrier. The United States Navy developed a plan to help the British man the ship with American military contractors, likely retired sailors with knowledge of the Iwo Jima's systems..."

The idea that America would allow a Japanese defeat because of some situation where the Chinese gained the upper hand is ludicrous. That being said I agree with many others here that if it ever got into a shooting war between Japan and China over these rocks in the middle of no-where, Japan would be able to prevail due to its long history of naval war seamanship and traditions of naval warfare innovation.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I am afraid you are mistaken with that quote as the Americans were fully pledged to provide Britain with a replacement carrier had they lost a carrier to Argentina.

"...President Ronald Reagan approved the Royal Navy's request to borrow the Sea Harrier-capable amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima (LPH-2) if the British lost an aircraft carrier. The United States Navy developed a plan to help the British man the ship with American military contractors, likely retired sailors with knowledge of the Iwo Jima's systems..."

Where is that quote from?

Even if true, it would still not change the fact that the US left the UK hanging when Argentina invaded the Falklands. Far from providing direct military support as the UK felt they were entitled to, the US actively tried to dissuade the UK from even launching a counter attack.

The idea that America would allow a Japanese defeat because of some situation where the Chinese gained the upper hand is ludicrous.

Why is it so 'ludicrous' that the US would not want to participate in a minor boarder dispute between it's two biggest trading partners and bankers?

The US would want any such conflict to be over as soon as possible, if US direct involvement would likely prolong and widen the conflict, there is a very good chance the US will opt out of the war, especially if direct involvement is likely to lead to significant US losses.

If China was to invade the Japanese home islands, the US would undoubtably get involved, but I seriously doubt the US wants to spend thousands of lives and trillions of dollars just so Japan can keep a few uninhabited islands on the other side of the world to the US. Obviously there are political and diplomatic concerns for the US, but if China is smart and leaves the US a face saving way to back out of fighting, there is a good chance the US will take it.

US involvement in any war over the Diaoyu islands would be a war of choice, and the US will choose not to enter if it does not server their best interests to do so.

That being said I agree with many others here that if it ever got into a shooting war between Japan and China over these rocks in the middle of no-where, Japan would be able to prevail due to its long history of naval war seamanship and traditions of naval warfare innovation.

Subjective, irrelevant and a better example of wishful thinking rather than objective reasoning.
 

Yorkie

New Member
This is a pointless thread for the armed-chair admirals. A few at-sea collision incidents maybe, but there will be no war. Both sides keeping naval combatants at a distance so as to not risk any serious incident. Let's move on to more interesting topics.
 

SteelBird

Colonel
Does this means that if Japan decides to capture the island and China did nothing then they will still do nothing?
Ma should have just remained ambiguous.

Have you ever asked why Ma choose to declare this at such a moment? Ma was considered an activist of the Diaoyu Island Protectors. Is he under any pressure by any side (US, Japan or the People Progress Party)? Is he afraid that people would say that he gets too closed to Beijing?
 

no_name

Colonel
Have you ever asked why Ma choose to declare this at such a moment? Ma was considered an activist of the Diaoyu Island Protectors. Is he under any pressure by any side (US, Japan or the People Progress Party)? Is he afraid that people would say that he gets too closed to Beijing?

I'm just a student throwing ideas around. What is your take?
 

NikeX

Banned Idiot
Where is that quote from?

Even if true, it would still not change the fact that the US left the UK hanging when Argentina invaded the Falklands. Far from providing direct military support as the UK felt they were entitled to, the US actively tried to dissuade the UK from even launching a counter attack.

The source is from here: ^ "Reagan Readied U.S. Warship for '82 Falklands War". News and Analysis, U.S. Naval Institute. 27 June 2012.

And there were other examples of US - Britain cooperation in the Falkland's war. Even the French played a role in helping Britain. When push came to shove Britain was not left hanging. And you probably were not aware that the Russians provided crucial satellite information which helped with the Argentine forces in locating and sinking Royal navy vessels. Check out the Kosmos 1365 satellite and the role it played.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
So if the US readied warships to supply to Japan (but didn't actually deliver any) and did nothing else besides calling for restraint on all sides in the event of a Sino-Japanese war over the Diaoyu islands, would you class that has the US having left the Japanese hanging, or having came to their aid?
 
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