The sinking of South Korean Corvette Cheonan

solarz

Brigadier
Well I was imagining that South Korean forces would do it, considering South Korea was attacked in what it recognizes as South Korean waters, only South Koreans died, and the South Korean armed forces are now in the lead role in the defense of their own nation.

While we have to imagine nuclear retaliation as a possibility, it is quite unlikely considering it would result in the certain elimination of North Korea and the Kim regime. The Kim regime's main priority is it's own survival, so, if South Korea takes limited, eye-for-an-eye military retaliation and kills some North Korean sailors, Kim is faced with a choice. As I see it he has 3 options. He can A) Hoot and holler, and call South Korea and America all sorts of names, possibly withdraw from talks, and play it up in internal propaganda B) Escalate with some form of conventional military action, or C) do what you suggested and fire nuclear weapons.

Now of those options, option A is the most likely to assure the continued survival of the Kim regime. Option B is less likely because it leaves open a path to war which will destroy the Kim regime. Option C ensures the Kim regime's destruction. So since we more or less know that North Korea's #1 strategic imperative is to maintain the status quo, we can be reasonably certain that it will pick option A. It enables them to play the victim and spread propaganda without actually threatening survival.

Furthermore, South Korea has sunk North Korean ships before and killed over 100 NK sailors in sea border clashes since 2000 and North Korea never got too crazy over those. There have been much larger land border infiltrations by North Korea that did not lead to full scale war, so I see no reason why limited retaliation should.

Lastly, I think military retaliation would show North Korea that getting the bomb has not left it invulnerable to punishment. If South Korea does not retaliate, they risk allowing the North to think that nukes are an invincible shield behind which they can provoke endlessly without any consequences. If the South disabused Kim (or whoever is in charge in Pyongyang) of that notion, then it might actually make disarmament more likely, because the North will realize it's nukes aren't worth as much as it thought.

While limited retaliation is a distinct possibility, the South will need to have definite proof before acting, as the North is currently denying any involvement. Perhaps a covert retaliation, where everyone will know it but no one can prove it, and which the South can deny any involvement as well.

rhino said:
And I believe up till now, no one is sure of China's reaction to a war in NK... there are chances that China will do nothing (unlike in the past), but there are chances that China will jump again. Plus we also have a big unknown - Russia... what would Russia's reaction be?

I think China should just roll in and annex North Korea. I doubt a lot of people will complain. If the South complains, just say that the North will be under Chinese protectorate until such a time that Korea is ready to reunify.

Of course, it would look bad if China invades an ally. Perhaps China could convince some military leaders to pull a coup and then invite the PLA in...
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
While limited retaliation is a distinct possibility, the South will need to have definite proof before acting, as the North is currently denying any involvement. Perhaps a covert retaliation, where everyone will know it but no one can prove it, and which the South can deny any involvement as well.



I think China should just roll in and annex North Korea. I doubt a lot of people will complain. If the South complains, just say that the North will be under Chinese protectorate until such a time that Korea is ready to reunify.

Of course, it would look bad if China invades an ally. Perhaps China could convince some military leaders to pull a coup and then invite the PLA in...

Perhaps the South Koreans should retaliate with a submarine, making it slightly deniable.

I've often thought that Kim Jong Il is a crazy old man living in a luxurious bunker and detached from reality, that the real decisions are made by Army and intelligence officials around him, and that people in the North Korean leadership are on the Chinese payroll. I have no evidence of that but it's just a hunch I have. I get the feeling that China could orchestrate Kim's removal very quickly if they want to.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Perhaps the South Koreans should retaliate with a submarine, making it slightly deniable.

I've often thought that Kim Jong Il is a crazy old man living in a luxurious bunker and detached from reality, that the real decisions are made by Army and intelligence officials around him, and that people in the North Korean leadership are on the Chinese payroll. I have no evidence of that but it's just a hunch I have. I get the feeling that China could orchestrate Kim's removal very quickly if they want to.

Let us not forget that the only reason that Kim Jong Il is still in power today is because the Chinese still need North Korea as a barrier/a form of deterrence. It is almost impossible for the Chinese government, in the current political climate, to openly threaten the U.S. and Kim Jong Il could be used in the same way that the United States use Taiwan.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Perhaps the South Koreans should retaliate with a submarine, making it slightly deniable.

I've often thought that Kim Jong Il is a crazy old man living in a luxurious bunker and detached from reality, that the real decisions are made by Army and intelligence officials around him, and that people in the North Korean leadership are on the Chinese payroll. I have no evidence of that but it's just a hunch I have. I get the feeling that China could orchestrate Kim's removal very quickly if they want to.

Ha, that's a laugh. Do you really think that if North Korea was in China's pocket, they'd have developed the nuke?

North Korea has gone it's own way from the day it started the Korean War, which incidentally, cost China Taiwan.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
True. Even today North Korean propaganda hardly mentions China's role in the Korean war. However I really don't think that the Korean War costed China Taiwan. The PlAAN was at its infancy at that time and I don't think that China could have launched a successful amphibious assault in the 50s.
 

solarz

Brigadier
True. Even today North Korean propaganda hardly mentions China's role in the Korean war. However I really don't think that the Korean War costed China Taiwan. The PlAAN was at its infancy at that time and I don't think that China could have launched a successful amphibious assault in the 50s.

Ah, but don't forget that the US was prepared to abandon Jiang when the Korean War broke out. The PLA might have been technologically poor, but Taiwan wasn't all that more advanced if the US did not sell them weapons.
 

getready

Senior Member
wow, people here are really entertaining thoughts of military strikes, and china removing kim? talk about detached from reality :) less neo con stuff here please, thanks.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
wow, people here are really entertaining thoughts of military strikes, and china removing kim? talk about detached from reality :) less neo con stuff here please, thanks.

Well I was just saying that the nature of the North Korean regime makes it vulnerable to Chinese infiltration, and I don't get the feeling that Kim is entirely in touch with reality.

And I'd hardly call South Korean retaliation for an unprovoked attack on its military "neo-con stuff".
 

solarz

Brigadier
wow, people here are really entertaining thoughts of military strikes, and china removing kim? talk about detached from reality :) less neo con stuff here please, thanks.

How about some input as to why you think China *shouldn't* annex North Korea, or at least turn it into a client state, instead of the ungrateful little hermit that it is now?
 

Quickie

Colonel
And I'd hardly call South Korean retaliation for an unprovoked attack on its military "neo-con stuff".

Not saying a North Korean retaliation is justified but there was a precedence to this incident, during which the North did suffer serious casualties.

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" In the North, state media on Thursday said it was South Korea that sent naval ships into northern waters and started shooting. "Our unchanged principle is no forgiveness and merciless punishment for warmongers who infringe upon our republic's dignity and sovereignty," said the Rodong Sinmun newspaper. It did not specify how the North would punish the South. "
 
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