The Richard Fisher Strikes Back!

Richard Fisher doesn't say anything really new in his latest article from the last one except that he takes a swipe at Chinese internet forums this time. Then why does all your information come from these forums,********** Read the rules about proper posting manners!!**********



. . .And Races Into Space
The Wall Street Journal Asia
by Richard Fisher, Jr.
Published on January 3rd, 2008
ARTICLES


China's military has long harbored ambitions of dominating space, as last year's satellite-targeting exercise showed. Now comes news that Chinese engineers may be much further along than previously thought in achieving one of their major goals: building a military space plane.

On Dec. 11, an anonymous blogger posted a photo of a new Chinese space plane on a Chinese Web site devoted to military issues. The photo -- the first and only of the plane -- shows a small spacecraft with heat shielding similar to that on U.S. and Russian space shuttles. The Chinese characters for "Shenlong," or "Divine Dragon," are stenciled on its side. Over the next four days other Chinese military enthusiasts posted additional photos, virtual computer-design models, physical table-top models, and some project data on blogs and other Web pages. All of these items, taken together, diminish the possibility the Shenlong is a professional or amateur Internet hoax.

There are dangers in relying too much on Internet sources of unofficial Chinese military data, as it is a proven playground for Chinese disinformation practitioners. But China's aspirations for space-plane technology are well known, and if it's genuine, the new photo offers a startling update on Beijing's progress toward that goal.

From the posted material, the Shenlong appears to be an unmanned, liquid-fuel, rocket-powered craft designed to test China's space-plane technologies. On and after Dec. 11, multiple web posters who appear to have some knowledge have reported that it is funded under China's "863 Program," which was created by top scientists in the mid-1980s to accelerate China's military modernization as a response to Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative. The space plane's design and testing are reportedly being led by the 611 Institute, which designs combat aircraft for the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, a government-owned company. According to other Web postings, this program is supported by multiple Chinese, state-run technical universities.

The involvement of fighter aircraft design institutes, plus previous statements of Chinese spacecraft design officials and related military-engineering literature, suggest that China wants its space planes to perform military, even attack, missions. There have been no previous statements about the Shenlong program per se, but researchers have spoken more broadly about what they hope a space plane would accomplish. In May 2002, Chinese Academy of Sciences member Zhuang Fenggan told the Beijing Youth Daily that China's space plane should be able to go in and out of the atmosphere and would serve as a "space combat weapons platform." Mr. Zhuang also noted that among the key technical requirements for a space plane were "high stealth" and "precision strike."

In the September 2005 issue of Contol Technology and Tactical Missile, a journal sponsored by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, three experts from the Center for Precision Guidance Technology of the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics noted, "The greatest advantage of a space-based ground attack weapon system is its high speed and short re-entry time. It is extremely difficult for the enemy to intercept such a weapon."

A larger unmanned space plane based on the Shenlong could easily be designed to carry out precision ground-attack missions at speeds and at altitudes that would avoid interception. Nor is Shenlong necessarily the only space plane on the drawing board in China at the moment. Some data since 1997 indicate that another ongoing Chinese space plane program may be based on the aborted French Hermes space plane of the early 1980s.

The "space bomber" concept itself is an old idea -- German engineers tossed around the possibility during the Second World War. Over the course of the Cold War, the U.S. and Soviet Union developed nearly a dozen combat space-plane concepts, but none ever made it off the drawing board. China's interest in space planes likely began when Qian Xueshen, an early leader of U.S. missile programs like the one that eventually became the Titan II ICBM, was deported to China in 1955, where he was promptly put in charge of China's missile programs by former premier Mao Zedong.

Mr. Qian's space plane concept of the late 1940s led to the U.S. space shuttle of the 1970s. In the 1990s, the 611 Institute's competitor, the 601 Institute connected to the state-owned Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, designed a small space plane that was never built. Indeed, posting of the Dec. 11 photo may have been a private attempt to honor Mr. Qian, who celebrated his 96th birthday on that day.

The Shenlong photo appears to demonstrate that the Chinese are now much further along in the development process than any of their "competitors." Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld reportedly favored the development of a U.S. space combat platform, but this idea was dropped, thanks to opposition from the U.S. Congress and the shifting priorities of the war on terror. The U.S. could reinvigorate the program by basing a new model on the experimental Boeing X-37 small unmanned space plane program. But since that program has limped along for over a decade, such an outcome seems unlikely.

Today the U.S. has no capability to deter China's potential use of military space planes -- as far as can be determined the U.S. does not have weapons packages for the Space Shuttle. Nor does anyone else. Russia recently dropped its small Klipper manned space plane program and the EU's Hermes space plane was abandoned in the early 1990s. At a minimum, Washington should delay the planned 2010 retirement of the Space Shuttle until a new space plane can replace it, as a way to retain a deterring potential military capability. China's unwillingness to comment on its military space plans, coupled with the Shenlong space plane, confirms its larger aversion to military transparency. The U.S. and its allies have little choice but to develop the capabilities to defend their interests and assets in space.

Mr. Fisher is a Senior Fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Alexandria, Virginia.


Related Links

Shenlong Space Plane Advances China’s Military Space Potential

No Credibility

Fisher's credibility keeps sinking lower.

When I see something published by Rand Corporation, for example, I may disagree with some of its conclusions, but at least I know that it was professionally researched and written.

Richard Fisher's publications, on the other hand, appear to have almost no substance behind them. The reason that the US abandoned "spaceplane" weapons concepts when it cancelled the X-20 DynaSoar back in the early 70s, was because on a bang-per-buck basis, there was almost no payback. Yet to hear Fisher tell it, we have entered a new Cold War - all because of a few pictures posted on the internet. Sorry, I don't buy it. Call me when one of these things is actually launched and works as advertised.

The saddest part is that Fisher is adept at self-promotion. His proclamations are routinely picked up by the mainstream press and repeated as "fact".

Fisher writes more of his opinions and speculations about what is going to happen in future than facts in his articles...which is fine as long as he clearly states that its his opinions and not what is actually happening - which he doesnt do.

I read the above article with after-thought of "maybe China can achieve that sometime in the long distant future...":coffee:

Here's his latest. I wonder if he even bothers to confirm any of these things he obviously pulls from internet forums. Such an easy job.



Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow

by Richard Fisher, Jr.
Published on January 20th, 2008
ARMS SHOW REPORTS


Although located in a region of tension and conflict the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has successfully deterred foreign predation by building modern and professional armed forces and by maintaining a broad aviation talent by hosting some of the world’s most competitive airlines. The UAE has also made itself a center of the region’s civil and military aerospace trade by hosting two of the most popular arms shows, IDEX in Abu Dhabi and then the Dubai Airshow. The 2007 Dubai Airshow from November 11 to 15 proved a boon for the airline and military aircraft industry, with over $100 billion in orders registered for over 500 aircraft.

This year’s show featured a modest presence by China’s CATIC aviation marketing company, with little to no effort by the sales team to speak to, much less display any of its modern offerings, such as the Chengdu J-10 fighter reportedly on offer to Iran and Syria. However, several of the international companies attending the Dubai show that are aiding China’s aerospace modernization would speak to their business and concerns with China.

Thrust Vector Engines for the J-10 and Carrier News

Russian sources stated that China and the Russian Salyut engine concern were in the process of negotiating a future sale of the AL-31FN engine, but with a axisymmetric thrust vectoring nozzle. These sources would not state the number of engines in this package, but did confirm previous statements that the thrust vectored engines were intended to support a Chinese Navy version of the Chengdu J-10 fighter--presumably for aircraft carrier use. In 2005 a Russian source had noted China’s interest in the thrust vectored modified version of the AL-31FN, but in 2007 it is now apparent that such a sale is under negotiation. With its forward stabilizer “canard” configuration, thrust vectoring for the J-10 could conceivably allow a lower landing speed, or enable a faster recovery take-off from a “Bolter,” or a failed arrested carrier deck landing. Both capabilities would be of interest to the PLA Navy to increase operational safety. In addition, other sources indicate the PLA will use the thrust-vectored J-10 version to better enable useful payloads to be lifted from the high-altitude bases of the Tibetan Plateau just north of India. Otherwise, thrust vectoring would add more to the already inherit high maneuverability of the J-10’s canard configuration. Russian sources claim that the thrust vectoring nozzle will not add additional weight to the engine, which might then require airframe or ballast modifications for aircraft.



More AL-31FN Engines: China and Russia are now negotiating a sale of thrust-vectored AL-31FN engines to support a new version of the Chengdu J-10 4th generation fighter. Source RD Fisher


Possible Russian Engine Upgrades

Russian sources are also “confident” that China will purchase new advanced higher thrust versions of the AL-31 to modernize existing PLA Sukhoi fighters, and potentially, to comprise future engine orders for the J-10. For example, the AL-31M-3 is intended to produce a 15,000 kg thrust engine, a bit less than that for the Pratt Whitney PW119 that powers the Lockheed Martin F-22A fifth generation fighter. These sources were also confident that Russia would produce a new generation engine to support Russia’s 5th generation fighter program. This engine would also be in the 15 ton thrust range and be able to support a “supercruise” mission, or supersonic flight for an operational distance without recourse to fuel guzzling afterburners.


Engine Upgrade Interest: Russian sources indicate that China is interested in purchasing new higher thrust versions of the AL-31 to upgrade its fleet of Russian-produced Sukhoi fighters and to support upgrades for the J-10.


Russian sources also confirmed that China continues to make steady progress in her decade long drive toward the completion of its first modern high power fighter turbofan, sometimes called the WS-10A Taihang. These sources expected that the J-10 would transition from primary reliance on Russian engines to the Chinese engine in less than five years. In late 2006 the “Taihang” emerged with some publicity after a long period of Chinese development. Since then, Chinese sources have suggested that China may soon develop its own advanced 15,000kg thrust capable version of the Taihang. China’s engine sector has long been viewed as the “Achilles Heel” of its aircraft sector, but this is changing fast, the Russian sources concede.

Russian 5th Generation Tidbits

Commenting on Russia’s 5th generation fighter plans, one Russian source affirmed that a first flight for their new generation fighter would take place in 2009. Other Russian sources were less optimistic, noting the 5th generation fighter might fly by 2012. Russian Premier Ivanov recently noted the first flight would occur in 2010. This fighter would combine 5th generation levels of advance in terms of stealth, supercruise and advanced electronic systems, to include a new active phased array radar system. While responding to unique Russian requirements, this source asserted the new 5th Generation fighter would be “better than the F-35” and close to competitive with the F-22. Such a distinction flows more from Russia’s unique requirements for its 5th generation fighter which does not include a requirement to match or exceed the F-22 in all aspects. This source also suggested that there would be a naval carrier version of this new aircraft. Fully aware of the Russian government’s gathering commitment to build a new fleet of up to six nuclear powered aircraft carriers, this source noted, “if there is a new ship there should be a new aircraft.” This source noted that existing Russian naval aircraft designs like the Su-27KUB would not be the design to meet future Russian naval combat aircraft requirements.


Russian Naval 5th Generation Fighter: While no official images of Russia’s 5th generation fighter have been released, this is but one Russian-source estimation of its configuration. Russian officials are now talking about a naval variant of the 5th generation fighter. Source: Russian Internet


Four To Six Chinese Aircraft Carriers?

Interestingly, a U.S. source that recently spoke with high PLA Navy officers relayed to the IASC that these officers stated that China would eventually build four to six aircraft carriers. In 2007 Chinese officials have been more willing to acknowledge their ambitions to build large aircraft carriers, an ambition that had previously been consistently denied. China is known to have had extensive contact with Russian aircraft carrier design and component manufacturing companies, and is now refurbishing the former Russian/Ukrainian carrier Varyag in Dalian harbor. In addition, PLA Navy officers have visited the French nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle, which may also influence China’s eventual choice of carrier size and configuration.


4 to 6 Carriers?: China may have ambitions to build up to six large aircraft carriers. The uncompleted Russian nuclear powered Ulyanovsk may also be influencing China’s carrier design. Source: Russian Internet


Since 2005 this analyst has tracked China’s aggressive pursuit of its carrier air wing. This has included negotiations to purchase modified Sukhoi Su-33 carrier fighters, which have yet to reach any conclusion, as well as the Shenyang Aircraft Co.’s efforts to copy the Su-33, which have included the purchase of Su-33 prototypes from Ukraine. But an additional PLA Navy carrier air wing candidate might be the naval version of Russia’s 5th generation fighter. Or, perhaps a naval version of China’s 5th generation fighter. In November a Chinese commentator asserted that China’s 5th generation fighter could fly as early as 2014 to 2015. Chinese sources indicate that China is developing a 15-ton maximum thrust version of the Taihang engine, which conceivably could support a Chinese “5th generation” supercruise mission. Chinese sources have also recently suggested that China is actively developing unmanned combat aircraft for carrier operations.



China’s 5th Generation Fighter Mystery: China has disclosed no official data about its 5th generation combat aircraft plans, but previous designs revealed by Shenyang (top) and Chengdu may provide some indication. Source: Chinese Internet


Twin Seat JF-17 Back On

A Pakistani official stated that the Pakistan side has elected to proceed with the development of a twin-seat version of the Chengdu FC-1 or JF-17 in Pakistan service. A CATIC official refused to comment on this development. The Pakistan Air Force’s requirement for a twin seat version of this fighter was first noted to the author by Pakistan Air Force officials in 2004. However, subsequent reports have noted that China was not interested in such a twin-seat version of the FC-1. The Pakistani official at the Dubai show stated, however, that Pakistan has elected to pay for the development of the twin seat version, and that is now proceeding. This official explained that as Pakistan is sharing in the full spectrum of production, usage and sales of the JF-17, that it therefore requires the twin seat version to fully exploit this aircraft. The twin seat version will be used to support training missions and will also be developed into a dedicated attack model. This same official noted that Pakistan will only purchase the Chengdu J-10 fighter, which is therefore of less industrial interest to Pakistan. Other sources have noted that Pakistan intends to purchase an initial force of 40 J-10 fighters.


FC-1/JF-17 Multirole Fighter: Pakistan is now funding development of a twin-seat version of this low-cost multirole fighter. Source: RD Fisher


Since the Dubai show Russia’s Kommersant has reported that Russia has approved the Klimov RD93 engine in the FC-1/JF-17 for re-export to six countries: Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Re-export to Pakistan had been an issue of serious contention between Russia and India, which uses the RD33, the basis for the RD93, in its MiG-29 fighters. Russia’s decision is a blow for Delhi, which will now face the JF-17 in significant numbers not only in Pakistan but also potentially in Bangladesh. China will also soon be able to arm the FC-1/JF-17 with 5th generation air-to-air missiles, such as the PL-10 derived from the South African Denel A-DARTER, and another radar-guided missile derived from the Denel R-DARTER. These weapons will greatly increase the combat potential of this low-cost but modern platform. At the same time, it is a major boost for Pakistan’s and China’s effort to promote the FC-1/JF-17 as the pre-eminent low-cost 4th generation multirole fighter. Until South Korea can market a single-seat combat version of its T/A-50 trainer, the FC-1/JF-17 will face no competition in its price range. The willingness of China and Pakistan to transfer full co-production capability will enhance the attractiveness of this fighter to many countries also looking to bolster their developing aerospace industries.



New AAMs: Revealed by Chinese Internet sources last December and then very early January 2008, the PL-10 (PL-ASR) and a yet to be identified AAM, appear to be derived from A-DARTER and R-DARTER, both developed by the Denel Corporation of South Africa. Source: Chinese Internet


Interest in a Beriev Megalift Concept

A Russian source also noted that based on several conversations at the 2007 Moscow Airshow that Chinese officials were rather interested in the Beriev Be-2500 very large cargo carrying amphibious aircraft. First seen at the 2003 Moscow Airshow, the eight-engine Be-2500 is one of the more recent concepts to emerge from a Russia’s longstanding fascination with very large aircraft. The Be-2500 is derived from designs dating back to the 1960s, when Beriev and others developed large “Ekranoplanes,” which fly at low altitude exploiting ground effect, and “Ekranolyots,” which can fly at medium altitudes. Earlier Beriev water-borne large Ekranolyots were designed to actually launch small fighters off a ramp on top of the fuselage. The Be-2500 would be a massive amphibian that could carry up to 1,000 tons of cargo and still fly at an altitude of 8,000m. While it can utilize runways, very few would be wide enough to accommodate its undercarriage. By comparison the latest versions of the Antonov An-124 are designed to carry up to 150 tons.


Beriev Be-2500 Megalifter: While an imaginative concept, the sheer expense and complexity of realizing this aircraft may serve to limit China’s interest in this program. But China’s interest in this and other mega-lift concepts should be monitored. Source: RD Fisher


The Russian source indicated that Beriev could not build a Be-2500 prototype without substantial foreign investment. While confident that it could follow through with the work and build the aircraft, it lacks the financial and physical plant to do the job currently. Putting an aircraft the size of the Be-2500 into series production would require a multi-national investment and production effort comparable to that which produced the Airbus A-380.

For these reasons it is questionable whether Chinese interest would be realized beyond the level of consulting or information gathering. However, China’s interest in the Be-2400 becomes understandable from the perspective of its immediate military and looming economic requirements. The ability to airlift 1,000 tons of military equipment to a secured beach on Taiwan would prove very attractive to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). With a force of Be-2500s the PLA could better exploit options to invade Taiwan from many more directions, from the South or on the East Coast. The Be-2500 could also rapidly reinforce forces on secured beaches, to more rapidly assemble assault forces needed to occupy a major Taiwanese city and more rapidly terminate the war. For China the Be-2500 could also support rapid high value cargo delivery at a far more economical scale. Chinese products could be shipped to distant markets more rapidly and critical resources could then be taken back to China at far greater speed.

EC-175 Progress

An official with Eurocopter noted that as previously reported, Eurocopter and China are on track to jointly developed and produce the EC-175 or Z-15 6-ton utility helicopter, which could be tested as early as 2009. While it is to be powered by Pratt Whitney Canada PT6 engines, Eurocopter is not ready to release definitive performance parameters until next year. However, the EC-175 is expected to be very close in performance to the Agusta A-139, which can carry 15 passengers in its civil version. The official stressed that this program is intended to be truly joint. Both sides have shared in the full development, with the European side designing the rotor and the Chinese side designing the blades. Component production is also to be shared, with no duplication between the sides.


Eurocopter-China Cooperation: The EC-175/Z-15 model shown with Premier Wen Jiabao. Assurances that China will not produce a military version of this helicopter contradict the history of China-Eurocopter relations. Source: Chinese Internet


This official dismissed the notion that China would develop military versions of the Z-15, despite the fact that every version of a Eurocopter helicopter either co-produced or copied by China has been produced in military versions. This official insisted that Eurocopter would uphold “international responsibilities” and that a recent co-production agreement for the EC-120 light helicopter had not led to a Chinese copied version. However, the EC-120 does equip Chinese Army Aviation training units.

Chances for Mi-17 Co-production Dim

A Russian source familiar with PLA orders for the Russian M-17 medium weight utility helicopter downplayed reports earlier this year that there might be a co-production agreement to build this popular helicopter in China. Recent reports indicate that a Chinese-Russian joint venture in Chengdu to repair Mi-17 helicopters may be trying to co-produced this helicopter as well. So far the PLA has ordered about 200 of this 10-ton capacity helicopter. The Russian source indicated that while a co-production arrangement had indeed been explored, the Russian side had doubts that a “civil” co-production agreement could be implemented that would sufficiently protect Russian intellectual property. This is a major concern for Russians given China’s great progress in “stealing” the Sukhoi Su-27 design to support its “indigenized” J-11B fighter program. But the Russians are also reluctant to lose the chance to secure a stronger foothold against its European competitor Eurocopter, which is pressing ahead with a full co-development program.


Mil Mi-17: Russian concern over intellectual property protection appears to be an issue impeding Mi-17 co-production in China. Source: RD Fisher


Progress Engines for L-15

A Ukrainian source indicated that the Motor Sich Company was completing an order for 100 Al-222 turbofan engines to support the Chinese twin-engine Hongdu L-15 supersonic trainer. In 2005 there were reports that China would order over 200 of these engines, so this update indicates the PLA has settled on a smaller initial number for this new supersonic trainer. The L-15 was developed with design consulting from Russia’s Yakovlev, and the L-15 is basically a cleaned up Yak-130 with after-burning engines to support supersonic training. An order of 100 engines might support a small number of test aircraft and then about two regiments of training aircraft. The L-15 program deserves watching as it is the most modern trainer now in production in China. Reports indicate China may be considering a navy carrier version for pilot training. And as has been the case with the Yak-130, the L-15 basic design could also support potential dedicated close air-support or even unmanned combat aircraft versions.


Hongdu L-15: This modern Chinese supersonic trainer could be developed into multiple versions. Source: RD Fisher


Russian Moon Ideas

An official from the Energia Company, which has manufactured most of Russia’s manned space structures, plus major components for the International Space Station, offered some ideas on how Russia might consider sending its personnel to the Moon, provided that Russian officialdom follows through with the enormous funding required to fulfill recent positive statements in that direction. One intriguing notion is that Russia eventually would want all of its manned space equipment to be as reusable as possible, to save on costs. A second interesting idea is that Russia is considering a permanent reusable lunar orbit space station to serve as a waypoint to support manned missions to the Moon. But such ideas are tentative and very preliminary, as the Russian government has yet to commit to real Moon programs.

Conclusions

The peak and decline in Chinese purchases of Russian arms, plus Russia’s renewed economic vigor, due largely to rising oil prices, have given Moscow cause for reducing its dependence on Chinese money to sustain its arms sector. While there has been steady commentary for about two years about rising Russian frustration with their military-technical relationship with Russia, their respective political leaders have been eager to sustain their “United Front” of “Multilateralism” against the United States. One Russian source at the show noted that the Russian military has consistently opposed Russian high technology sales to China, but has been overruled by the political class and the previously desperate arms sector. But Russian military concerns as well a rising military-corporate concerns with China’s aggressive copying of Russian systems, may lead to a real change in heart in Moscow. One Russian source in Dubai noted, “in time, this time of open doors to China will come to an end.” The problem is that Russia has already sold so much of its most advanced weaponry to a China, arming a potential rival for Central Asian dominance that also poses a growing threat to U.S., Japanese and Taiwanese security interests.

(Japanese sources recently suggested to my colleague Arthur Waldron that under Putin Russia has substantially modified its approach to China arms sales, substituting a degree of caution and suspicion for previous willingness to provide whatever China could buy. The same source confirmed Russia’s desire to maintain China as part of an anti-US coalition. China and Russia have plenty of issues between them and Putin has given highest priority to securing the Far East, the Russian territory closest to China. So Russian China policy appears to be in flux).

Nevertheless, even though outright weapon purchases are down, Russia today remains a critical source for China of all manner of military technology. For example, recent Chinese data suggests Russia has sold China the means to make very long-range ramjet powered air-to-air missiles that might out-range all current models of the U.S. AIM-120 AMRAAM. Though China may be attempting to develop a carrier compatible version of the Shenyang J-11B, an “indigenized” version of the Su-27, a lack of success may force Beijing to swallow its pride and purchase an upgraded Russian Su-33 or Su-27KUB. But another potential option may be the carrier version of Russia’s 5th generation fighter, which would offer clear superiority over a 4++ generation version of the Su-33. It would also offer potentially decisive superiority over the Boeing F/A-18E/F, to which the U.S. Navy remains committed as its dominant carrier fighter for decades to come. The chance also exists that China has already included a carrier variant in its 5th generation fighter requirements, which both Shenyang and Chengdu are striving to meet.


New AAM: The above has been identified by one Chinese Internet poster as the “PL-13,” which may indicate that Russia has sold experimental anti-air missile ramjet motor technology to China. It appears Russia’s Vympel firm sold ramjet technology from its advanced R-77 program, which is reported to have had to goal of developing a missile with a range of 160km. Source: Chinese Internet


Therefore, one conclusion from Dubai is that neither the United States nor its allies can rely for much longer on significant numbers of upgraded 4th generation fighters to provide adequate deterrence in the air. There will be added pressure on the U.S. Air Force to fund adequate numbers of the Lockheed-Martin F-22A and to sustain production plans for the F-35. Furthermore, the U.S. Navy must either modify its future attack-mission oriented Lockheed-Martin F-35C 5th generation fighter to better conduct air-superiority missions, or develop a new 5th or 6th generation fighter to sustain air superiority at sea. In addition, Japan will have to commit to a plan to meet its 5th generation fighter requirements. So far, these include purchase of the F-22, purchase or co-production of the F-35, or an accelerated development of the new 5th generation design based on the ATD-X or “Shinshin” technology demonstrator now under development by the Ministry of Defense Technology Research and Development Institute (TRDI). Other countries like Australia and South Korea are already facing increased pressure to upgrade their air forces to 5th generation fighters.

I'd like to know who exactly his sources are. Government bureaucrats, officers or just a lot of think tank warriors?

This very website and some of what is written here certainly figure in his papers.

AssassinsMace said:

Thrust Vector Engines for the J-10 and Carrier News

Russian sources stated that China and the Russian Salyut engine concern were in the process of negotiating a future sale of the AL-31FN engine, but with a axisymmetric thrust vectoring nozzle. These sources would not state the number of engines in this package, but did confirm previous statements that the thrust vectored engines were intended to support a Chinese Navy version of the Chengdu J-10 fighter--presumably for aircraft carrier use.

Click to expand...

I doubt this is correct. Single engined J-10 will not be adopted for carrier operations. I think the TVC engines are for the stealthy J-10 -- one that will have RAM, double V tail fins, AESA and TVC.

AssassinsMace said:

In November a Chinese commentator asserted that China’s 5th generation fighter could fly as early as 2014 to 2015. Chinese sources indicate that China is developing a 15-ton maximum thrust version of the Taihang engine, which conceivably could support a Chinese “5th generation” supercruise mission. Chinese sources have also recently suggested that China is actively developing unmanned combat aircraft for carrier operations.

Click to expand...

Actually, the PLA officer said that J-XX will arrive within 5-7 years, no problem. To me this means that J-XX will enter service between 2012-2014.

New AAM: The above has been identified by one Chinese Internet poster as the “PL-13,” which may indicate that Russia has sold experimental anti-air missile ramjet motor technology to China. It appears Russia’s Vympel firm sold ramjet technology from its advanced R-77 program, which is reported to have had to goal of developing a missile with a range of 160km. Source: Chinese Internet

Click to expand...

What is so ridiculous here is that he must have assumed this by the appearance of the missile. You know, when it comes to ramjet intakes, there isn't much variation going around. In fact, there seems to be only two, and you either belong to one or the other. The first is a angled canted intake, and the second one is an intake with a nose cone.

The idea the J-XX would enter service in 2013 to 2015 as Roger asserts isn't credible. The F-35 is flying in prototype form today after a decade long design period and a Low Rate Initial Production decision at Milestone C will not be made until all the IOT&E is complete in 2012. Somehow China is going to start from scratch and put a "Fifth Generation" fighter into service before a decade old US project reaches initial production? Well now...........

The Chinese and Russians also don't build prototypes until the component technologies are ready. The prototype stage is much shorter, more work is focused on the design stage. The design was completed in 2006. A prototype should be flying by next year, I think.

China isn't starting from scratch. The J-10 is already a quantum leap forward for Chinese aviation. An improved version of the J-10, I believe, is already flying. I expect we'll see this improved J-10 enter service next year.

The PLAAF shows you only the tip of the icerberg. There's a lot more beneath the surface!