Normally I would say India can’t be stupid enough to start a war it cannot possibly win, but Ukraine and Trump are proving that just because something is stupid doesn’t mean it won’t happen these days.
I think Pakistan will have relatively confident in its ability to repulse any Indian aggression.
The key to any clash will be air power, and Pakistan enjoys significant on paper and off-book advantages compared to India.
Pakistan has invested more than India in AWACS assets, which will massively swing the odds in favour of the PAF. Many of those AWACS are directly compatible with PLAAF datalinks. Which opens up all sorts of possibilities for Ukraine style kill chain support by PLAAF recon and surveillance assets.
The recent disclosure that the JF17 is PL15 compatible is a major game changer in itself, but more important is the logistics implications.
India purchased 250 Meteors, which sounds like a lot, but really means less than 7 missiles per plane for its 36 Rafale fleet. That’s basically enough missiles for one combat sortie for each plane. Let that sink in on what it means in a real war scenario.
The PAF OTOH, can have functionally unlimited PL15 reloads as China can send them PLAAF inventory rounds as an emergency measure if needed. Will France do that for India?
The fact that Pakistan has inducted J10Cs also opens up the option of PLAAF J10Cs fighting directly in the war if needed under PAF colours.
With the kind of full spectrum support China can and will offer Pakistan, it basically cannot lose against India in the air. And if the PAF controls the skies, the Indian Army cannot do much on the ground without risking getting absolutely wrecked by air strikes.
Ukraine style drone wars doesn’t even need to come into it, as that’s only really relevant if you are bogged down in close range entrenched attritional warfare. But is also a viable option if India does go totally nuts and tries to overwhelm PAF air strikes with sheer numbers. But TBH, I think mines and artillery will be far more effective at stopping the Indians in their tracks if they try any large scale ground invasion. And again, logistics will be key here, and where Pakistan has an unassailable edge with Chinese support.
So long as Pakistan doesn’t fold like a house of cards upon initial contact, and there is zero indication that they will, the kind of support they can expect to get from China will mean they basically can’t loose the war.
