The Kashmir conflict 2025.

ougoah said:

Short of J-10CE carrying some secretive super weapon, the Rafale is a better fighter 1 vs 1. PAF likely just has better networked platforms.

Su-57 should be much more capable than J-10C in just about every way.

The thing is the Indians bought Rafale to counter F-16s and JF-17s when they realised their MKIs were not going to give them guaranteed air superiority even in greater numbers. Rafale represented their silver bullet much like F-22 represented USAF's silver bullet of assured superiority back in the naughties. J-10CE purchase by PAF was a counter to the Rafale. To deny IAF guaranteed air superiority. It worked.

Su-57 if purchased would be yet another attempt to gain an overwhelming advantage. It'll bleed Indian economy dry if purchased in significant numbers but it would be something Pakistan cannot financially afford to match short of China donating J-35s.

AMCA isn't going to be inducted this decade and unlikely to be fielded in significant numbers even in the entirety of the next decade, if they even complete that.

India will get a slap in the face for turning back to the Su-57. They are probably hoping for F-35s now but they're quite realistic when it comes to dealing with Americans for anything military. It'll come with more strings attached than alternatives and no guarantee of function during wartime with Pakistan. Basically any potential IAF F-35 would only ever be allowed to be used against China.

I think IAF will double down on Rafale and simply try to improve their network and invest in CCA to supplement Rafale while working on making AMCA a workable next generation solution. There's also the potential route of joining GCAP. They can either have AMCA and a better domestic industry that comes with the AMCA journey or GCAP, not both.

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Rafale might have the kinematic advantage but the J-10CE does have a larger radar. But beyond that, the two aircraft are broadly similar enough such that the minutiae of their technological differences won't make a difference if their respective pilots are simply mismatched. Factor in stuff like ECM and AEW and their inherent capabilities begin to matter less and less.

Which is to say that PAF's victory is in large part due to its operational planning, tactics, pilot skill, and also the fact that they specifically targeted the Rafales to maximize the kill probability. If the PAF had operated Rafales and the IAF the J-10C, the IAF would've lost 3 J-10Cs instead.

If I were the IAF, I'd focus money and personnel on the AMCA and maybe the TEDBF. Everything else matters little.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

Despite its bells and whistles, Rafale's most significant disadvantage is detection range, which is incidentally the most important factor in fighter vs fighter scenarios.

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You're right. I didn't think about this too much.

1 vs 1. Both bring 4 BVRs and 2 WVRs to the fight with drop tanks. Rafale has better kinematic performance but not by much. Range, altitude, top speeds are more or similar enough.

J-10 should detect the Rafale further away. Both have similar frontal RCS but the RBE2 radar is unlikely to be better than the CE's AESA not only in TR but just in overall performance, in no small part due to how much smaller the RBE2 is and it is also based on older American AESA tech from the 2000s era. CAESAR would be a better European AESA.

PL-15E and Meteor aren't too far apart in performance. I think Meteor probably is a bit better.

They are very evenly matched birds. Network and tactics separate them... at least as far as known abilities go.

AndrewJ said:

The French guy is indeed a professional coper. It's very difficult to debate with him. He insists that so many PL-15 missiles w/ AEW&C planes could only shoot down one Rafale w/o AEW&C, which already proves Rafale's superiority. May people in this thread can help?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1924216328145047657

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1924217269527232674

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1924216328145047657

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1924355291304309058

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Dominique should think about why the Rafale wasn't able to take out even a JF-17. The Indians launched over 70 sorties and had Rafales and MKIs flying CAP armed for air superiority and expecting to "teach the Pakis a lesson" which was what Indians were hoping to do. It was supposed to be an epic, overwhelming force from India which got blunted and was cut short.

The next day why did France ask India to stop using Rafales to prevent more getting slapped. Why did IAF stay far from the border, relocating aircraft further east. On day 2 the Indian side was resorting to drones and anti-surface missiles only.

Neurosmith said:

Rafale might have the kinematic advantage but the J-10CE does have a larger radar. But beyond that, the two aircraft are broadly similar enough such that the minutiae of their technological differences won't make a difference if their respective pilots are simply mismatched. Factor in stuff like ECM and AEW and their inherent capabilities begin to matter less and less.

Which is to say that PAF's victory is in large part due to its operational planning, tactics, pilot skill, and also the fact that they specifically targeted the Rafales to maximize the kill probability. If the PAF had operated Rafales and the IAF the J-10C, the IAF would've lost 3 J-10Cs instead.

If I were the IAF, I'd focus money and personnel on the AMCA and maybe the TEDBF. Everything else matters little.

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Completely agree. The Rafale and CE are closely enough matched that the rest of the network resulted in those differences becoming negligible. If IAF flew CE and PAF flew Rafales, PAF would still have won.

Yep... GCAP is the trap. Indian aerospace would be out of the fight for another generation if they pick the GCAP route but their insecurity and pride in possessing "top of the line" weapons even if foreign will mean they pick GCAP.

AMCA would take them another 15 years to complete to LRIP give or take 5 and another 15 years to complete orders for. By then Chinese 7th gen would have a decent chance at being in prototyping. They will never pick AMCA as a focus of resources. It'll be one more of the pandering line for domestic MIC while pouring the lion share of resources into buying 5x overpriced foreign warplanes.

AndrewJ said:

Nope. What Paki need to do is upgrading its AEW&C fleet, make them capable to detect not-that-stealth Su-57 in decent range.

Meanwhile, AEW&C planes in IAF are sh*t & useless. IAF not willing to use then in 7/5 air combat, which indicates a lot.

J-10CE+PL-15 w/ upgraded AEW&C will outperform Su-57 w/o AEW&C. If replacing Rafale with Su-57 in 7/5 air combat, Su-57 would still be shot down. On the other hand, everyone knows Russian A-50 sucks, even if IAF imports original A-50 as AEW&C to guide BVRAAM carried by Su-57 (if it could guide?), I still doubt whether the result would be better.

Remember: You can't use a single weapon to defeat a sophisticated system.

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There are far too many unknowns to be able to make the prediction you are making. We do know from PLAAF's publicized findings based on extensive exercises that 4.5th gen + AWACs is not sufficient to counter true 5th generation fighter. We know that Su-57 is the least stealthy of the 5th generation fighters, but we don't know precisely how large the gap is and whether or not it would result in an meaningful difference. We can safely assume the current radars on the Su-57 are not as advanced as the latest Chinese AESA, ie radars mounted in the current production batch of J-20s, but we don't know how it compares to the radars on J-10CE (though its certainly larger and has more T/R modules). We also know that PAF's AWACs are not as advanced as KJ-500 and newer PLAAF/PLAN platforms.

I would still say the probability of Su-57s, if employed with proper tactics, coming out on top is higher than the converse. Note this is not equivalent to saying IAF Su-57s will prevail against PAK AWACs/J-10CE (proper tactics being a huge qualifier).

7th May air combat timeline by @Global Defence Agency

00:20am At 12:10pm Indian Air Force initiated the first wave of combat takeoffs of Rafale, Su-30 MKI, Mig-29, and Mirage 2000 starting with aircraft groups from the northern and central attack axes. This marked the official launch of the large-scale air campaign codenamed “Operation Sindhoor”.

00:12am At 12:12pm Pakistan Air Force (PAF) detected unusual activity by the Indian Air Force and initiated combat readiness. This reflects the high efficiency of Pakistan’s early warning system as it detected the threat within just 2 minutes of the Indian aircraft taking off.

00:23am At 12:23pm fighter jets of Pakistan Airforce mainly JF-17 Thunder and J-10CE began taking off one by one. The time from detection to actual response was less then 11 minutes.

00:30am At 12:30pm Indian airforce completed the takeoff of all its strike groups. At this point approximately 72 Indian fighter jets including 14 Rafale fighter jets were airborne to participate in the operation and divided into four attack formations.


00:37am At 12:37 All 42 combat aircraft of Pakistan Air Force were airborne and formed a defensive formation with AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning and Control) aircraft providing aerial intelligence support from the rear. At this point two sides were locked in a standoff near the border with a force ratio of 42 (PAF) to 72 (IAF).


00:40am Without crossing the border the IAF began launching long-range air-to-surface missiles at predetermined civillian targets inside Pakistan located just outside the defense zone.


00:45am At 12:45pm PAF successfully locked all Indian aircraft that launched air-to-ground munitions using electromagnetic signatures. The Air Chief of PAF Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmad Babar Sidhu at forward command issued a key directive, upgrading the rules of engagement from “deterrent standoff” to “engage and shoot down hostile aircraft.”

00:50am – 01:10am J-10CE & Jf-17 Thunder fighter jets of Pakistan Airforce began launching PL-15E long-range air-to-air missiles at the marked Indian jets.
According to intercepted communications from the Indian “Godzilla” formation (Rafale squadron),
Godzilla -3 was shot down.
Godzilla -4 reported a mid-air explosion.

01:15am At the peak of the engagement Pakistan shot down a total of 5 Indian fighter jets and a MALE UAV within approximately 25 minutes. At the same time PAF maintained disciplined and selective strikes targeting only those Indian aircraft that had launched air-to-ground weapons.


01:30am – 02:00am After losing 5+1 aircraft Indian Air Force retreated from the combat zone and fighter jets of Pakistan Air Force also started returning to base. The entire aerial battle lasted around 2 hours the initial takeoffs to landing of the last aircraft.

ougoah said:

J-10 should detect the Rafale further away. Both have similar frontal RCS but the RBE2 radar is unlikely to be better than the CE's AESA not only in TR but just in overall performance, in no small part due to how much smaller the RBE2 is and it is also based on older American AESA tech from the 2000s era. CAESAR would be a better European AESA.

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Ha. Turned out, both ECRS mk. 0 and mk.1 aren't that big either (1000ish TRM count). Mk.0 (CAPTOR E) is equally old tech, delayed by committees. Mk.1(German) is modern, but Gaas. Mk.2 is GaN (selex raven outgrowth).
Arrays are still a bit smaller than J-10c one, almost exactly as large as mig-35s' zhuk-am.

That's on top of being almost non-existent （ECRS mk.0 is now only installed on two dozen export aircraft, rest of the fleet is planar CAPTOR-M).

If India had eurofighters instead, situation would've arguably been even worse. Eurofighter lacks tactical stand off munitions. Only paveways.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

Despite its bells and whistles, Rafale's most significant disadvantage is detection range, which is incidentally the most important factor in fighter vs fighter scenarios.

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The detection range by SPECTRA in discussed context is more important than the detection range by RBE2.

ougoah said:

Lol what you quoted was correct. It's you who simply doesn't like the truth. Europe and US were instrumental in fracturing Yugoslavia. India has incredible central government control. As much as CPC has over China. India could only fracture based on dissatisfaction of its citizens but its citizens have the world's highest tolerance of living in absolute torturous conditions. If you put Japanese, Chinese, Swedish whatever citizens in Indian position, they'd have created a revolution decades ago.

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I'd say the actual fracturing of Yugoslavia only needed a small push at most.
Slovenia seceding was fairly undramatic.

But reverting to the pre-WW1 borders was obviously unacceptable to the Serbs as they had sacrificed a million people to defend against Austrian-Hungarian aggression and freed Serb (As well as the other South Slavic.) lands from this Empire. And also successfully defending against the Nazi heirs of the Empire.

A negotiated settlement, appending most Serb parts of Bosnia and Croatia to Serbia should have been very achievable. Especially since Western powers could have demanded a sovereign Kosovo as a trade - preventing Serbian maximalism.

Yugoslavia was a failed experiment, but reversing all Serb gains from the first World War was a matter of divide and rule by cynical imperialists.

snake65 said:

The detection range by SPECTRA in discussed context is more important than the detection range by RBE2.

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Not the range; range is usually radar detection range x2, for a very obvious reason.
The interesting bit is ability to recognize and decipher LPI pattern, if it's in use.
Which, in turn, is why radar size is very important for the searcher (and it's better not to use full power), because at full power even lpi is quite obvious to anyone who saw it on a screen.

snake65 said:

The detection range by SPECTRA in discussed context is more important than the detection range by RBE2.

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You mean passive detection? That is only situationally relevant. Also efficacy against LPI AESAs is unknown.

Modern AESAs can perform many of the same roles as SPECTRA. SPECTRA was designed at a time when AESAs were not widespread and the intended radar for Rafale was a PESA.