I've come across some articles, one from the telegraph epsecially, latley, that hint to a possible change in NATO tactics. Away from occaisional CAS missions hitting hardware on the frontlines and logistics, towards a more focused effort disabling C2 capacities, in Tripoli and also Brega.
Is NATO potentially seeing that the rebels simply won't be able to do it and is thus changing strategy to a more comprehensive approach?
Take away coordination from loyalist forces and adjust conditions towards the also uncoordinated rebels, and then go back to pave the way along the road by attacking vehicles again.
The regime coudn't make any gains for some times now, while the rebels achieved some success lately, the tide might slowly, but comprehensively, be changing now.
You're right, NATO does seem to be focusing on central C2 targets lately, mainly in Tripoli. They're still hitting targets on the battlefields, but the pace of that seems to have slowed (i.e. hitting just a few vehicles on the various various fronts each day). I don't think this is a good move by NATO. Everything I have seen leads me to believe that the regime forces are coordinated by cell phone, courier, coded messages on state TV/radio and other non-conventional means. Also, the same thing was tried in the air campaigns in the 1991 Iraq War, and NATO's intervention in Kosovo, and wasn't terribly effective. In any case, why waste missiles by blasting Qaddafi's compound night after night. No one's in there anymore. People aren't being killed in many of these air strikes as far as I can tell.
Meanwhile the rebels are still plodding forward bit by bit. Here's a video that shows them using Milan antitank missiles apparently provided by Qatar, something that major news outlets haven't yet covered.
SDF gets it first! I'd reckon that's at some sort training range in the East of the country.
Also, in the Western mountains, rebel organization is increasing. There's still plenty of "Allah Akbar" chanting, but less obviously horrible tactics and celebratory gunfire. I've seen videos/pics, which I'm honestly just too lazy to find and post right now, of the rebels "graduating" what appears to be several hundred men who had uniforms and were marching around and stuff, and generally looked like they had gone through some sort of basic training, at an ex-Libyan Army facility. I suppose that's better than the totally untrained disorganized rabble they had before. In the same area the rebels have been able to put by my estimation about 15 confirmed tanks and armored vehicles into action (T-72s, T-55s, BMP-2s) and possibly more.
This is perhaps my favorite improvised rebel weapon I've seen in the entire conflict. A pick up truck with a working BMP turret mounted on the back! Probably not that useful, but I'm astounded they made it work!
I have an unanswered question about the conflict: What is the frequency of contact by sea from Benghazi to Misrata? I know that rebels from Benghazi have occasionally reinforced Misrata in fishing boats, but I don't know if this happens frequently or if it only amounts to a few dozen men with small arms. If there is a high-traffic sea supply route from Benghazi to Misrata, the rebels in the East may not need to attack Brega and drive west along the coast road. They could shortcut by sea and then through Misrata and Ziltan straight to Tripoli. But I don't get the sense that contact by sea is frequent. CJ Chivers, an extremely knowledgeable and reliable ex-Marine NY Times reporter has been reporting frequently on happenings in Misrata via Twitter and he hasn't mentioned frequent sea contact. On the other hand, the infamous helicopter rocket pod pick-up trucks that the Eastern rebels have been using just started appearing in videos out of Misrata, in the West of the country. I do not believe they were captured in Misrata, because I haven't seen them used before and they weren't captured at the airport. So they must have been brought from Benghazi. Here's a video of them in action. In it, you can see that the rebels are getting better at using their technicals to pepper targets from a distance with rockets, recoilless rifles, AAA and HMGs. At the beginning, particularly in the East, they seemed to just charge blindly ahead. Resistance is not heavy in this video, it appears to be more mopping up but it's a primer on technical tactics.
Finally, Twitter is abuzz with discussion that May 17th will be a big day of protest/insurrection in Tripoli. The capital is certainly bubbling under the surface. There were huge demonstrations there at the start of this thing on Feb 17, and the city is still getting covered with anti-Gaddafi graffiti every night. There's Youtube videos of small groups of masked rebels claiming to be in Tripoli that appear to have a few guns. Perhaps a rising in the capital, combined with a push from the better armed and more professional forces in the East and in the Nafusa Mountains will be enough to finally crack the regime. On the other hand, nothing might happen. Many people have been saying that any publicly declared insurrection day will not be listened to because the security forces will be ready.
EDIT: One final question. Does the Q-man have the forces to launch another series of counteroffensives and roll back recent rebel gains? Will we see another round of see-saw action? I don't know. The next few days will tell. But my bet is that he doesn't, at least not on the Misrata front. If the regime forces regain territory around Misrata, it will be because the rebels got "victory disease" and overextended themselves (which is a real danger because morale seems very high and in videos they're constantly jabbering about "first we're going to Ziltan then Al-Khums then Tripoli!")
