Money talks
Taiwan's Reaction to PLA Force Modernization
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Money talks
Pointblank
Senior Member
Nuclear weapons and a even bigger market talks even more.
Will certainly the PRC has even bigger money than even Taiwan, which for a small nation is super rich.
You can forget about Europe. They have pretty much agreed in principle that if they cannot sell weapons to China via embargo, they won't sell to Taiwan either just to make things even, not to mention because of their relationship with Beijing. The Europeans have awfully big business interests in China, especially the ones that can make the subs---France, Germany, and Sweden.
But we should really stop talking about subs in an aviation section of this forum.
You can forget about Europe. They have pretty much agreed in principle that if they cannot sell weapons to China via embargo, they won't sell to Taiwan either just to make things even, not to mention because of their relationship with Beijing. The Europeans have awfully big business interests in China, especially the ones that can make the subs---France, Germany, and Sweden.
But we should really stop talking about subs in an aviation section of this forum.
BLUEJACKET
Banned Idiot
As I suggested before, Japan may sell her few surplus subs to ROC once new units are comissioned, at least as a stop gap solution.
As for nukes, Japan has the biggest plutonium stockpile and can build a nuclear weapon in about a year-and than extend the proverbial "nuclear umbrella" over its former colony. I also read that ROC been shipping uranuim from S.Africa. But all this may not be as important: even if Taiwan gets them, they'll be used as a detterant, and if that fails, as a 2nd/decapitation strike against the agressor/unifier-whichever name you preferr. China will not tolerate Korean unification under ROK leadership, and US and/or Japan likewise will not tolerate Taiwan's re-unification with PRC under current Chinese leadership. ROC will invest in conventional precision missiles of all types, and meanwhile Taipei knows that S.Korea, Japan an US will come to its aid if for nothing else, to protect the SLOCs Taiwan's strategic location is in the position to control. Enough said!
As for nukes, Japan has the biggest plutonium stockpile and can build a nuclear weapon in about a year-and than extend the proverbial "nuclear umbrella" over its former colony. I also read that ROC been shipping uranuim from S.Africa. But all this may not be as important: even if Taiwan gets them, they'll be used as a detterant, and if that fails, as a 2nd/decapitation strike against the agressor/unifier-whichever name you preferr. China will not tolerate Korean unification under ROK leadership, and US and/or Japan likewise will not tolerate Taiwan's re-unification with PRC under current Chinese leadership. ROC will invest in conventional precision missiles of all types, and meanwhile Taipei knows that S.Korea, Japan an US will come to its aid if for nothing else, to protect the SLOCs Taiwan's strategic location is in the position to control. Enough said!
You got to understand Asian culture a little bit. SK, Japan come to Taiwan's aid?
SK is already on China's side, Japan wont do anything in a war even it talks big. It's just toooo risky for Japan, they even don't do anything for the disputed oil field in East China Sea, it's the PLAN patrolling the area.
UCSDAE
New Member
So, if ROC is getting a new batch of F-16s, does anyone know what block would they be getting? Block 50/60? and What Block was the one with the modified fuselage?
South Korea would have, I say 80 to 90 percent chance of not participating, at least directly in any future PRC-ROC conflict, because they still need PRC's help with their nuclear brother in the North, and I am pretty sure they would want to see China and Japan get tangled and weakened each other
Japan MIGHT intervene, given the recent passage of a bill regarding emergency in the surrounding region(周边有事法?anyone wanna translate this accurately?) and her need for the SLOC. But it will be a hard sell to the Japanese legislators in the Diet, not to mention that the Chinese market is Japan's only way to dig herself out of the economic stagnation hole. Japan has a lot to weight over as to intervene not to mention the US will certainly use Kadena MCAS and other bases in Japan to defend Taiwan. Japan is stuck in a tough spot.
South Korea would have, I say 80 to 90 percent chance of not participating, at least directly in any future PRC-ROC conflict, because they still need PRC's help with their nuclear brother in the North, and I am pretty sure they would want to see China and Japan get tangled and weakened each other
Japan MIGHT intervene, given the recent passage of a bill regarding emergency in the surrounding region(周边有事法?anyone wanna translate this accurately?) and her need for the SLOC. But it will be a hard sell to the Japanese legislators in the Diet, not to mention that the Chinese market is Japan's only way to dig herself out of the economic stagnation hole. Japan has a lot to weight over as to intervene not to mention the US will certainly use Kadena MCAS and other bases in Japan to defend Taiwan. Japan is stuck in a tough spot.
hongkongpride
New Member
I'd say you're right in that S. Korea would probably not particpate in a Taiwan Straits conflict as they think they need PRC help with their crazy cousins up North, however if the pro-US Grand National Party wins the next election-a 99% chance they will given the current President's incompetence-then the US will at the very least have bases in S.Korea to use in the event of a war. I would personally think that the PRC would not dare to strike US bases on Korean soil, primarily to avoid bringing S.Korea into the war on the US side-a situation that existed in the Korean War where UN Air Forces were forbidden to strike at MiG-15s on Soviet bases in Russia north of the Yalu River to avoid starting another war with Russia.
However, US bases in Okinawa might be hit by PRC missiles as they are important staging areas for the US Marines and US forces coming to ROC's rescue-the Japanese constitution allows war if Japan is attacked by an external aggressor-I believe Japan will be forced into war because for the PRC not to attack US bases on Okinawa would be equivalent to fighting with one hand tied to your back. The overall feel of the "Assassin's Mace" strategy of offsetting technologically advanced opponent's advantages bears many comparisons to Germany's Scheliffen Plan of 1914 and Hitler's modifed Scheliffen Plan of 1940 (read: Blitzkreig) that involve denying enemy forces their staging areas by catching them off balance using surprise armored thrusts.
Except this time, it will be with M-9/M-11 SRBM strikes.
However, US bases in Okinawa might be hit by PRC missiles as they are important staging areas for the US Marines and US forces coming to ROC's rescue-the Japanese constitution allows war if Japan is attacked by an external aggressor-I believe Japan will be forced into war because for the PRC not to attack US bases on Okinawa would be equivalent to fighting with one hand tied to your back. The overall feel of the "Assassin's Mace" strategy of offsetting technologically advanced opponent's advantages bears many comparisons to Germany's Scheliffen Plan of 1914 and Hitler's modifed Scheliffen Plan of 1940 (read: Blitzkreig) that involve denying enemy forces their staging areas by catching them off balance using surprise armored thrusts.
Except this time, it will be with M-9/M-11 SRBM strikes.
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UCSDAE
New Member
Does anyone know if the 52+ deal is finalized or anywhere near it? personally, I think that US defense giant like LM would definitely rip Taiwan off, but then there's nothing Taiwan can do about it.
the funny looking things that are on the fuselage are extra fuel tanks(with it comes extra combat radius), being a two seater, i would say the 52+ is leaning toward more of a bomber role.
I will have to disagree with you on South Korea, HongKongpride. Mainly because there is no gurantee that DPRK will not attack when PRC and ROC get tangled. So S. Korea would probaly keep a wary eye on their DPRK and the same will go for the US forces in SK.
As for Japan, given the ruling LDP is getting more conservative by the day, and the opposition's failure to challenge LDP power for most of the post-WWII period, I would say Shinzo Abe(provided that he's still in office, his numbers are slumping) will try to intervene, by providing bases for the US forces, thereby making PRC preemptive strike inevitable. Although I think there is a chance the SOF from PLANMC will be involved in this one way or another.
the funny looking things that are on the fuselage are extra fuel tanks(with it comes extra combat radius), being a two seater, i would say the 52+ is leaning toward more of a bomber role.
I will have to disagree with you on South Korea, HongKongpride. Mainly because there is no gurantee that DPRK will not attack when PRC and ROC get tangled. So S. Korea would probaly keep a wary eye on their DPRK and the same will go for the US forces in SK.
As for Japan, given the ruling LDP is getting more conservative by the day, and the opposition's failure to challenge LDP power for most of the post-WWII period, I would say Shinzo Abe(provided that he's still in office, his numbers are slumping) will try to intervene, by providing bases for the US forces, thereby making PRC preemptive strike inevitable. Although I think there is a chance the SOF from PLANMC will be involved in this one way or another.
hongkongpride
New Member
As of now, the US has announced that the F-16 Deal will not go through unless the Legislative Yuan (the shoe throwing monkeys) and the KMT pass the Arms Procurement Bill from 2001 that has been stalled more than 75 times since 2001 and has STILL NOT PASSED
So until the KMT traitors pass the bill, the ROCAF will not recieve their F-16's-which I think is criminal neglection of duty by the KMT towards the country (depending on your view either Taiwan or ROC) especially since the new J-10 has come on line.
You may well be right on South Korea not intervening or not allowing US forces use of their bases-although the US has been quite annoyed as of late toward the ungrateful South Koreans who ask the US to hand over all shared combat operations command by 2012, forgetting that the North Koreans are crazy if not downright insane and might attack at any moment.
So in response, the US says it might handover the shared command to the Koreans in 2009 and just pull out-to Japan-making Japanese involvement in a Taiwan Straits crisis just about 99% certain.
I'm not sure whether I'd welcome Japanese involvement in a Taiwan Straits conflict as the Japanese have a habit of getting too ambitious for their own good and keep rewriting their history to cover up their atrocities during WWII instead of acknowledging them as Germany did-however, compared with the Chinese Communist Party, I'd say the behaviour of the Japanese has definitely improved from "evil devils" to "extremely naughty little boys"-especially now since the US is keeping a thumb on them to stop another repeat of Nanjing 1937.
PS-Do you think the M-9/M-11 SRBMS are accurate enough to hit targets without on ground or aerial targeting guidance?
So until the KMT traitors pass the bill, the ROCAF will not recieve their F-16's-which I think is criminal neglection of duty by the KMT towards the country (depending on your view either Taiwan or ROC) especially since the new J-10 has come on line.
You may well be right on South Korea not intervening or not allowing US forces use of their bases-although the US has been quite annoyed as of late toward the ungrateful South Koreans who ask the US to hand over all shared combat operations command by 2012, forgetting that the North Koreans are crazy if not downright insane and might attack at any moment.
So in response, the US says it might handover the shared command to the Koreans in 2009 and just pull out-to Japan-making Japanese involvement in a Taiwan Straits crisis just about 99% certain.
I'm not sure whether I'd welcome Japanese involvement in a Taiwan Straits conflict as the Japanese have a habit of getting too ambitious for their own good and keep rewriting their history to cover up their atrocities during WWII instead of acknowledging them as Germany did-however, compared with the Chinese Communist Party, I'd say the behaviour of the Japanese has definitely improved from "evil devils" to "extremely naughty little boys"-especially now since the US is keeping a thumb on them to stop another repeat of Nanjing 1937.
PS-Do you think the M-9/M-11 SRBMS are accurate enough to hit targets without on ground or aerial targeting guidance?
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