South American Economics/China-Latin American Relations Thread

tphuang

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As if any of that matters to the hegemon. They can just claim it is being used for military purposes and block it. And those "rights" how much share is that? A minority stake or a majority stake? If there was a majority stake in those mines by China, then sales to Russia wouldn't have been blocked.

Who did Huawei or SMIC invade? Serbia? What about Libya? Syria?
You keep talking about china getting blocked because Russia got blocked after invading Ukraine. Guess what, china hasn't invaded anyone. It is a much greater economic force than Russia and it owns many of these mines. And it has 80% of processing capacity for lithium. The more mines china has access to, the better. None of this has anything to do with Russia. Why does every Chinese strategic move need to be related Russia?
 

tphuang

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Would help if you provided a link to the podcast

This one?
the podcast is called the global lithium podcast
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it's actually episode 136, not on the website, but if you subscribe to the podcast, they have more episodes.

I don't think the episode itself is all that important, but batteries will be extremely important in the future. EVs will be large portion of the demand, but home/industrial battery pack will be important too. All of that takes natural resources. Lithium is at the heart of this. Joe Lowry has been saying for a while that there is not enough Lithium for all the EV demands. Maybe we will compensate for that by going with sodium ion batteries, but lithium will be important for a long time. Countries like Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil have not had great luck with US hegemony in Western hemisphere. Just for Lithium supply alone, China needs to be as proactive as it can be in tying up with these countries.
 

gelgoog

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You keep talking about china getting blocked because Russia got blocked after invading Ukraine. Guess what, china hasn't invaded anyone. It is a much greater economic force than Russia and it owns many of these mines. And it has 80% of processing capacity for lithium. The more mines china has access to, the better. None of this has anything to do with Russia. Why does every Chinese strategic move need to be related Russia?
And who did Venezuela invade? You are being too naive I think. To ignore the kind of economic power tools the US is enforcing and dismiss it all "because Russia invaded someone" is foolhardy. Right now the US is heavily dependent on Chinese imports, but as more and more of assembly moves to other countries in Asia like Vietnam, dependence on China will decrease and US attempts to destroy Chinese industry will increase.

The solar industry is a good case in example. The US banned Chinese imports and as a result most of the finished assembly of panels moved outside China. Eventually they will ratchet it up to decrease the amount of Chinese content in the imports as well. They will eventually try to kill Chinese solar cell manufacture.

I expect the Chinese civilian aircraft manufacturing industry to be hit next. In the next 3 years expect sanctions. Like what happened with Russia, it probably will start with vendors dragging their feet delivering components to COMAC and eventually Chinese companies will be sanctioned. Think of what happened to Xian and MA700 as just an appetizer.
 
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AndrewS

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the podcast is called the global lithium podcast
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

it's actually episode 136, not on the website, but if you subscribe to the podcast, they have more episodes.

I don't think the episode itself is all that important, but batteries will be extremely important in the future. EVs will be large portion of the demand, but home/industrial battery pack will be important too. All of that takes natural resources. Lithium is at the heart of this. Joe Lowry has been saying for a while that there is not enough Lithium for all the EV demands. Maybe we will compensate for that by going with sodium ion batteries, but lithium will be important for a long time. Countries like Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil have not had great luck with US hegemony in Western hemisphere. Just for Lithium supply alone, China needs to be as proactive as it can be in tying up with these countries.

There is lots of lithium available in the ground.
It's the mining, extraction and processing of lithium which is facing shortages.
And I do expect other battery chemistries like Sodium (which should be viable) to become more important than lithium batteries overall.

---

There's an estimate from Elon Musk that the world needs 500 TWh (500,000 GWh) of overall battery capacity to go carbon neutral.

There's currently production of about 600 GWh of batteries per year.
If we assume batteries last for 20 years, we need a minimum of 30000 GWh of batteries produced per year.
So the overall battery industry would need to expand capacity by 50x

In 2025, SVOLT/CALB/CATL are all targeting about 500 GWh of battery capacity. I expect BYD will be around that much as well.
That is already triple today's current capacity
 

tphuang

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And who did Venezuela invade? You are being too naive I think. To ignore the kind of economic power tools the US is enforcing and dismiss it all "because Russia invaded someone" is foolhardy. Right now the US is heavily dependent on Chinese imports, but as more and more of assembly moves to other countries in Asia like Vietnam, dependence on China will decrease and US attempts to destroy Chinese industry will increase.

The solar industry is a good case in example. The US banned Chinese imports and as a result most of the finished assembly of panels moved outside China. Eventually they will ratchet it up to decrease the amount of Chinese content in the imports as well. They will eventually try to kill Chinese solar cell manufacture.

I expect the Chinese civilian aircraft manufacturing industry to be hit next. In the next 3 years expect sanctions. Like what happened with Russia, it probably will start with vendors dragging their feet delivering components to COMAC and eventually Chinese companies will be sanctioned. Think of what happened to Xian and MA700 as just an appetizer.

Did Argentina or Chile stop doing business with Venezuela? I don't believe so. China is humongous in this space. It's one thing for US to stop allowing its own lithium productions to get processed in China. It's quite another thing for Argentina/Chile/Bolivia to do so. The sooner that China get these miners entirely dependent on Chinese lithium processing and battery OEMs, the easier it will be for China to keep a firm hold here. And believe me, US government would be very happy with CATL or BYD building battery factories in America and use lithium mined in America.

Also, US can try to ban Chinese solar import all they want, but have a great time getting the resources needed to produce the solar panels. China has no issue with any of the miners that they need to dominate the industry and supply everyone else.

If C919 doesn't work, it's not end of the world. China is not Russia. It's really tiring to have to hear you compare China to Russia on everything, when China is not dealing with the same issues.

There is lots of lithium available in the ground.
It's the mining, extraction and processing of lithium which is facing shortages.
And I do expect other battery chemistries like Sodium (which should be viable) to become more important than lithium batteries overall.

---

There's an estimate from Elon Musk that the world needs 500 TWh (500,000 GWh) of overall battery capacity to go carbon neutral.

There's currently production of about 600 GWh of batteries per year.
If we assume batteries last for 20 years, we need a minimum of 30000 GWh of batteries produced per year.
So the overall battery industry would need to expand capacity by 50x

In 2025, SVOLT/CALB/CATL are all targeting about 500 GWh of battery capacity. I expect BYD will be around that much as well.
That is already triple today's current capacity

There are a lot of lithium available. However, the investment in battery production in 10x that of lithium mining. You can only utilize as much lithium as what is mined and processed.

There is no question lithium will continue to get more important. I would think at this point, CATL and BYD is likely to achieve their targets of over 600 GWh. CALB and SVOLT are smaller and their announced plans are a little less realistic.

The problem is that there just isn't enough investment out there to mine the needed lithium. So either they need to use less lithium per GWh (through better chemical) or use sodium ion batteries or something else. I haven't done enough research to see how lithium usage in solid state batteries compare to LFPs for example. That's why Chinese investment in Argentinian and Bolivian lithium deposits is very important.
 

Strangelove

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More Uruguayan steak to China, which along with Argentine steak, are probably the best in the world. More South American beef and less Australian shit-tainted beef.

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Chinese FM holds phone talks with his Uruguayan counterpart over ties, cooperation

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday held a phone conversation with Uruguayan Foreign Minister Francisco Bustillo.

Wang said that China-Uruguay relations enjoy a solid political foundation, with fruitful results in economic and trade practical cooperation and sound development prospects.

As the first Southern Common Market (Mercosur) country to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Uruguay has joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the BRICS New Development Bank, providing important momentum for bilateral and multilateral cooperation between the two countries, said the Chinese foreign minister.

Wang pointed out that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the two countries have joined hands in anti-pandemic fights and overcome difficulties together.

Noting that Uruguay was one of the first Latin American countries to voice support for China's fight against the pandemic and provide assistance, Wang said China has always been caring about the Uruguayan side as well and offered strong support in terms of protective supplies and COVID-19 vaccines.

Wang said that China is ready to work with Uruguay to deepen political mutual trust, promote the upgrading of China-Uruguay cooperation, and strengthen communication and coordination in international and regional affairs.

He expressed the hope that the two sides will sign a cooperation plan to jointly build the Belt and Road as soon as possible, adding that China stands ready to help Uruguay develop into a logistics center in South America.

The Chinese side, Wang said, is willing to work with the Uruguayan side to make science and technology innovation a new highlight of their bilateral cooperation, and push forward practical economic and trade cooperation, noting that China welcomes more Uruguayan agricultural and livestock products and high value-added products into the Chinese market.

The Global Development Initiative (GDI) and the Global Security Initiative (GSI), both put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping, have offered Chinese proposals for global development and security from the perspective of building a community with a shared future for mankind, Wang said, adding China sincerely welcomes Uruguay to join the above-mentioned initiatives at an early date and join hands to tackle global challenges.

For his part, Bustillo said that Uruguay-China relations have made great progress and enjoy broad prospects.

Although the two countries are far apart and differ in national conditions and size, they have set a good example of friendly cooperation between countries of different sizes and conditions, he said, adding that Uruguay firmly supports the one-China principle.
The Uruguayan side welcomes and appreciates the GDI and GSI proposed by President Xi, which are highly consistent with Uruguay's foreign policy philosophy, said Bustillo.

Next year marks the 35th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries, he said, adding that the Uruguayan side looks forward to accelerating the process of free trade cooperation with China, bringing the two countries' practical cooperation within the framework of the BRI to a higher level, enhancing coordination on multilateral affairs and continuously upgrading its strategic cooperation with China.
 

Strangelove

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China, Brazil sign agreement to boost trade of corn, other agricultural products

By Global Times Published: May 25, 2022 02:15 PM Updated: May 25, 2022 02:08 PM
Farmers are drying grain in Huaian, Jiangsu Province on November 2, 2021. Photo: VCG

Farmers are drying grain in Huaian, Jiangsu Province on November 2, 2021. Photo: VCG

China and Brazil have reached an agreement to boost cooperation in agricultural trade including corn, soybean meal and peanuts, as China expands the import of feed grains for the needs of deeper agricultural processing, an expert said on Wednesday.

The General Administration of Customs (GAC) and the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture signed the Protocol on Phytosanitary Requirements for exporting Brazilian corn to China (revised edition), according to a statement on the website of China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM).

“The signing of the agreement indicates that China moves to enlarge the import of corn while reducing purchase of soybeans in an effort to increase food security,” Li Guoxiang, a research fellow at the Rural Development Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Li said that China’s output of corn as feed grains is basically sufficient, whereas expanding imports could better boost the development of the deeper agricultural processing sector.

China’s import of feed grains, especially corn, has increased in the past two years. According to data from the GAC, China imported 28.35 million tons of corn in 2021, an increase of 152.2 percent compared with the previous year.

China used to import corn mainly from the US and Ukraine, with Brazil accounting for a small share for use as seeds.

The MOFCOM listed the deals on Tuesday along with other outcomes from the sixth meeting of the China-Brazil High-level Coordination and Cooperation Committee.

At the meeting, the Chinese and Brazilian government departments also signed documents to jointly improve taxation services for cross-border businesses, strengthen bilateral trade on agricultural products, deepen cooperation on pesticides, and boost investment in the low-carbon and clean-technology sector.

The two countries also agreed to discuss greater integration regarding the digital economy, push for enhanced cooperation in scientific innovation, collaborate on industrial and supply chains, and enhance digital-technology exchanges.
 

Strangelove

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When Latin Americans are saying take your Monroe Doctrine and shove it up your AngloMonkey Pox ass...

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US-led Summit of the Americas never popular in LatAm for its neocolonial interventionist nature: sociologist

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Published: Jun 06, 2022 11:39 PM


The upcoming Spanish version of the book authored by Heinz Dieterich to introduce the

The upcoming Spanish version of the book authored by Heinz Dieterich to introduce the "China miracle" achieved by its people, the CPC and the state Photo: Courtesy of Heinz Dieterich
A wave of boycotts against the upcoming US-hosted Summit of the Americas (SOA) is the latest demonstration of the rising anti-US feeling in Latin America, as more countries, including Mexico, have increasingly realized how they have been the victims of aggressions from the US, the biggest troublemaker and democracy spoiler in the region, Heinz Dieterich, a world renowned German sociologist and political analyst residing in Mexico, told the Global Times in an exclusive interview.

While several Latin American and Caribbean leaders warned they might not attend if Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua were not invited, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the most likely guest to follow through on the threat, US news outlet The Hill commented on Monday.

The significant downgrading of Latin American presidential participation in Los Angeles indicates an increasing trend for change against neoliberal regimes and US-backed despots in the subcontinent, said Dieterich.

He claimed that the US' decision of not inviting Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to the summit is a clear indication that the ruling power elites in Washington are totally out of touch with today´s reality and are "delusional."

The US is trying to exclude some so-called "non-democratic leaders." However, the historic truth is that "no other state in the hemisphere that has destroyed more democratic governments and institutions in the hemisphere and globally than Anglo-American imperialism: the US and the UK, through direct interventions, color revolutions, economic sanctions, blockades," Dieterich argued.

The Article 19 of the Inter-American Democracy Charter proclaimed by the Organization of American States (OAS) meeting in Lima, 2001 states that "any unconstitutional alteration or interruption of the democratic order in a state of the hemisphere constitutes an insurmountable obstacle to the participation of that state's government in the Summits of the Americas process."

"Thus, any logic would dictate that the first country to be prohibited to participate in these summits must be the US," Dieterich said.

Observers from the region told the Global Times that they see an obvious trend of US-led organisations becoming less popular among states in the region.

The OAS was never popular in Latin America and the Caribbean because it was never more than a neocolonial interventionist instrument of US' exploitation and domination in the hemisphere directed against any attempt of self-government and national sovereignty of the Latin American people and progressive governments, Dieterich suggested.

On a global scale, the OAS Summit is a marginal event compared to others. It has nothing substantial to offer because its center of power, the US, is a shadow of strength compared to what it was even a decade ago, Dieterich noted.

The unpopularity of the OAS has a long history, but it was deepened with the crisis of neoliberalism and the emergence of progressive governments, Arturo Laguado Duca, professor of the Latin American Academy of Social Sciences (FLACSO) at the Argentina University told the Global Times. "One could even say that more than unpopular, the OAS became inconsequential when it was already obvious that it was only serving as a coordination mechanism to impose US policies with very few benefits for the rest of the countries. Without a doubt, this marks a weakening of US hegemony in the region," Laguado said.

Dieterich said that the theme of the upcoming OAS, "Building a Sustainable, Resilient, and Equitable Future," is nothing more than an empty slogan with no real power or the US interest to back it up.

"The United States is a shadow of the imperial power it once was, with incompetent leadership-elites and no strategic clue to what its role in the future multipolar world is and can be. The Empire is a status quo with no potential for elaborating a progressive role for a world community with shared interests," Dieterich stated.

"What projection of power, leadership and economic development can such a country exercise in its own backyard, the Western hemisphere, where of course, the China-led Belt and Road Initiative with increasingly important trade, investment and financial participations produce an ever-better road of development than Western neoliberal imperialism?" Dieterich asked.

China, as a viable economic and political partner and a possible strategic alternative to the US in the governance of the new multipolar world system, has provided the anti-imperialist Latin American experience and attitude with a viable material underpinning for the construction of the future and the renegotiation of Mexico's close relationship with the US, the scholar said.

Dieterich tagged the Organization of American States a "neocolonial instrument of the Cold War and a constant imperialist interventionist in internal affairs of Latin American states," citing the latest example of the coup d'état in 2021 against Evo Morales, Bolivia's first Indigenous president and one of Latin America's most prominent leftists, which was organized by the US and the UK because of Bolivia´s lithium reserves and the long democratic and economic development achieved under the Morales' government.

The OAS played a fundamental role in that destabilization and coup d'état against Morales' government.

Mexican Foreign Minister, Marcelo Ebrard , slammed the secretary general of the OAS Luis Almagro on June 4, 2021, for his "very dubious and questionable actions to intervene in internal processes such as the case of Bolivia, which was opprobrious because they practically facilitated a coup in a country that had an uninterrupted democratic life in recent years."

Mexico, for 200 years, has been the victim of US aggressions, having lost almost half of its territory because of Washington´s expansionism in the 19th century, Dieterich mentioned.

"These centuries-long aggressions, extorsions, bullying and discrimination have left a strong anti-American feeling in the Mexican population. The US intervention in the Mexican Revolution, including the assassination of the democratic president Francisco Madero, the exclusion of Cuba from the Inter American system (1962) and the US war against its revolution, the coup d'état against the democratically elected Salvador Allende in Chile in 1973, and the US criminal war of aggression against Nicaragua´s Sandinista government. All these imperialist interventions in Latin America and México kept the popular anti-American sentiment of the Mexican people alive," Dieterich told the Global Times.

The dramatic decrease of Washington´s imperial power in the hemisphere and, on a global level vis-a-vis China, Russia, India and the Middle East, inevitably means an increase of the relative power of the Latin American states, Dieterich concluded.

With the probable electoral triumphs of Lula da Silva in Brazil and Gustavo Petro in Colombia, this year, a new more powerful anti-neoliberal configuration of social-democratic governments may be emerging in Latin America and the Caribbean, he noted.
 

tphuang

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This is really getting embarrassing for Biden
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AMLO is definitely out now. Pretty amazing considering he did not even ditch on Trump after all those terrible things Trump said about Mexico. The rest of this article does a pretty good job of explaining the grievances that Latin American countries have with America in recent years.

My experience has been that most of these countries are still very culturally connected to America, but have serious love/hate relationship with America from past meddling or perception of destroying their economy (in the case of Argentina).
 
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