Hu Chunhua not only belongs in the Hu-Wen Tuanpai Youth League faction (not exactly a Xi loyalist anyway), recent news uncovered massive corruption in Inner Mongolia during his time as Party Secretary of the Autonomous Region. Not only does he face massive headwinds to ascend to one of the top jobs, there might even be a case where investigations into these corruptions leads to his purging from leadership... and perhaps even the party.
The handling of the pandemic as well as Xi's portfolio of accomplishments both on the domestic and foreign front have proven that he's here to stay. I legit see the possibility of Xi bringing back and occupying the position of Chairman of the CCP, a post Mao occupied and was abolished in 1982. It'd allow Xi to hold onto the party leadership (either as Chairman of the party and designating a successor to occupy the position of General Secretary, or just keeping the status quo as General Secretary), Presidency of the country (state), and leadership of the CMC (military) as he guides the country through a crucial period whilst allowing leaders from the 6th generation that he's groomed to occupy key positions in the Politburo... Sorta like Deng did when he held onto the First Ranked Vice Premier position and led the country as Paramount Leader while his proteges Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang ran things on the ground as General Secretary and Premier.
Term limits were only removed for the Presidency and not the Premiership, so Li Keqiang (who belongs to the Hu-Wen faction) will almost certainly have to step down... or perhaps he's garnered enough favor from Xi to move to a lower ranked position (I think unlikely though). Based on my amateur research, I'd say these two candidates face the best chance at ascending to the Premiership next year:
- Wang Yang
- Current Standing Committee Member and Chairman of the CPPCC
- Previously Vice Premier, so he'd have extensive experience and insight on how the State Council works... on top of that he previously governed Guangdong and Chongqing as Party Secretary, which are the CCP's spotlight jobs
- Belongs in the Hu-Wen faction, but seemingly has a good working relationship with Xi
- Factions aside, I think he's the most qualified for the job.
- Liu He
- Currently 4th ranked Vice Premier and already on the Politburo (although not a Standing Committee Member)
- He is largely responsible for Xi's economic policy (in other words a massive ally and a guy Xi trusts), and was charged with leading trade talks with the US... so big ticks on the financial, economical, and foreign affairs front.
- He'll be 70 next year, so he'll need waving of the party's informal retirement rules (七上八下 - in essence you get to stay if you're 67 when the Party Congress first comes into session, however you must retire if you're 68)
- All hinges on whether Xi can sell it to the party members and elders to see past the informal rule... and I'm just not 100% sure if they'd allow it... however the potential rewards and leadership+insight Liu could provide if given the exception could be massive for China's future.
These names from the current Politburo get thrown around a lot in the press largely because they belong to Xi's faction and they also happen to occupy the party's 'spotlight' grooming positions:
- Li Xi, Guangdong Party Secretary
- Chin Min'er, Chongqing Party Secretary
- Li Qiang, Shanghai Party Secretary
- My thoughts:
- Normal promotion pathway to Premier sees a candidate spend time as one of four Vice Premiers to prove he has the goods before promoting to Premier in the upcoming Party Congress... While these guys have loads of experience and accomplishments governing provinces, they lack experience in the State Council.... and well the Premier is in charge of the State Council.
- I don't think they get promoted to General Secretary or Premier, but I still think they are highly likely to ascend to the Standing Committee and occupy the following positions:
- Chairman of the either the NPC or the CPPCC (3rd and 4th ranked position in the country respectively) as a way to lead Xi's agenda through legislation
- Secretary of the Central Commission of Discipline Inspection (CCDI) as a way to reinforce Xi's influence in the party
- One of four Vice Premier positions
- While it would seem the party is skipping this generation (6th generation), I do think they have a crucial role to play in China's future. Basically my long way of saying why I don't think these guys will become General Secretary or Premier next year.
I think Wang Huining, current Central Secretariat (basically Xi's highly effective chief of staff, the West thinks he's China's Kissenger) keeps his job... He's a great mind and highly efficient at his job, but its not like he has provincial governing experience or time spent at the State Council to be promoted to say Chairman of the NPC/CPPCC or Premier. Zhao Leji, a Xi ally and current CCDI Secretary, could either keep his job or promote to Chairman of the NPC or CPPCC.
These guys will hold down the fort for the 20th (and maybe the 21st Party Congress as well I think) while leaders from the 7th generation are groomed in key positions in the coming Party Congress.... and depending on the state of global affairs and where the country is at, they'll "rise to power" in the 21st (2027) or 22nd (2032) Party Congress. In other words if I had to make a bet, I think we should have a better idea of China's next paramount leader in 2027 when a new Central Secretariat is named and ascends to General Secretary + Paramount Leader in the 22nd Party Congress.
