Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
PLAAF is the boss,I don't buy the rumor that the SAC tried to collect the R&D money by its own connection in the AVIC since if the boss won't buy its product,it's useless to spend money and energy on such a project.And on the contrary,I believe that the SAC J-XX project has a high priority in the PLAAF's future plan if it's not more important than the J-20 due to the reasons:
1.The PLAAF intended to buid a both defensive and offensive force(by recent PLAAF publictions),the SAC J-XX fighter/bomber will be the backbone to project the air to ground firepower in an offensive mission.
2.If the SAC J-XX is cheaper enough(at least it seems so from current leaked information) than the J-20,mostlikely the PLAAF will buy more of it than the J-20.That means the PLAAF will form a high/low combination by the J-20/SAC J-XX.
3.I can smell the distrust from the PLAAF to the CAC.The SAC J-XX has a role to be the plan B that if the J-20 failed,the PLAAF still has another project to ensure the sucess.
Overall,the SAC J-XX services the PLAAF's future offensive plan and it's important to the PLAAF,the SAC project could not to be a self-funded one.It's important,if not more important than the J-20.

The F-15E was developed privately before the USAF issued the ETF tender. The MQ-9 was developed privately by General atomics before they anticipated the USAF's desire for an improved MQ-1.

Privately developing a new aircraft in the early stages and then having the military become interested is not new at all.
I agree with your points 1 and 2. SAC's J-XX could certainly be used in those roles but that does not support the idea their "J-19" is being privately or government funded.
Point 3 is ridiculous -- if there's any distrust it's PLAAF towards SAC. The fact that they've only recently picked up J-11B/S and J-15 production is probably because PLAAF were commited to the platform as the current mainstay of their heavy fighter force. The same way they are commited to the J-20 as their future heavy fighter force.
SAC's J-XX proposal lost for a reason, and CAC has shown themselves more than capable to take on the task of developing multiple new fighters in recent years.

SAC's J-19 is probably not being funded by the air force.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Well let's look at the big picture. Here are the upcoming fighters:

JF-17B-WS-13 engine, improved electronics, frontal stealth
---Very possible since it could be a very strong export product.

J-10B/S
---We know this fighter is being developed, it makes sense to improve the J-10 platform.

J-2X-Rumored single engine stealth fighter. Possible since it would be a long term replacement for the J-10.

J-15
---In development, derived from the J-11B. Fills near term need for a carrier fighter.

J-20-Stealth air superiority fighter.
---China's F-22 equivalent.

That's a lot of planes to be developing simultaneously, but we also have these.....

__________________________________________________

J-16-J-11BS/Su-30 derived fighter bomber.

JH-7B-Another fighter bomber....

J-17-Stealthy Flanker....possibly similar to the Su-35?

J-18-Next generation naval fighter

J-19-5th generation SAC multirole fighter.


This is far too many new fighters. There isn't enough money or enough slots to fill in China's air force.

I still don't understand why they would develop a JH-7B and J-16 simultaneously. The J-16 would be far superior and would be quick and easy to develop since it is just a modified J-11B.

But then there is talk of the J-17, J-18, and J-19....

I am going to suggest that these may be the same fighters. If you remember huitongs post about the J-15 before he learned that it was to be just another flanker variant....he thought that it was a semi stealth design based on SAC's failed design bid against the J-20.

But now 70092 is suggesting that the J-19 is also derived from this failed design. I am thinking that maybe, after SAC lost the bid against the J-20, they continued the project on their own but retooled it for multiple roles. Perhaps their fighter will be carrier-ready as well? Otherwise it is a complete overlap over the J-20 and makes no sense.

I compared some multiple sources and here are what they have in common:
This is mostly educated speculation. The PLAAF does not confirm anything in advance.


J-16: this will apparently be simply an upgrade of the J-11BS, perhaps with some more emphasis on ground strike. First flight expected 2011-2012.

J-18: this is in early development, so don't be surprised if you are not going to hear about it for a few years. It is supposedly a naval fighter follow on to the J-15.

J-19: this is the Shenyang's J-XX.

J-2X (or J-21/J-12?): this is supposedly a F-35 type fighter developed from the J-20. It may be for export.

JH-7B: this will be a stealthy variant of the JH-7A with AESA radar and upgraded engines. First flight expected very soon.

JF-17 Block II: stealthy JF-17 with AESA, more composites, etc. First flight may already been completed.


The J-17 is supposedly a cancelled copy of the Su-34.



As you see, many of them are simply upgrades of existing fighters, and many are export oriented. This implies that not all of them will enter service or enter service in significant numbers.

The low observable is interesting. Just looks real close to the USAF low observable.

usaf-lo-01.jpg

plaf-lo-01.jpg


Nice fighter too...but I would not call it a true 5th gen stealth fighter. I am sure it is much better than the standard flanker...but not up to speed IMHO with true fifth gen stealth fighters. Here's the side and front compared to the F-22:

f22-01.jpg

sf-01.jpg


f22-02.jpg

sf-02.jpg

The plane you are viewing is probably not the Shenyang J-XX. It is more likely the J-16. The J-16 is an upgraded J-11B variant with probable RCS reducing design and AESA radar. It's a strike fighter, probably on par with the F-15SE in terms of stealth and avionics.

Be a nice aircraft to upgrade and make a naval variant for the carriers. A few years from now, if they bring out a carrier variant to upgrade the J-15s. Depends on the perfromance and charactoeristics...but a naval variant would be an option I would think.

China is believed to be developing a follow on fighter to the J-15. It has been temporarily named the J-18, and it is supposedly a stealthier variant. Judging from what few information we have about it, I think of it as a downgraded T-50K.

However, the guy also mentioned that SAC's mutli-role stealth fighter will like to face tough competition from another AVIC's design insistute, 603th insistute, which is expected to develop a stealth heavy fighter-bomber, place more emphasis on stealth, low-cost, and larger internal weapon bay size, at the expense of inferior dog-fight performance.

That sounds like the JH-7B.

The picture comes from an article written by an ex AVIC employee.

In the article the ex employee says that there are three major variants of the J-11 being developed.

Two of these variants will have some stealthy features while the last variant will essentially be a 5th generation fighter.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
^ Edit your posts instead of posting five consecutive please... makes reading it much easier.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
PLAAF is the boss,I don't buy the rumor that the SAC tried to collect the R&D money by its own connection in the AVIC since if the boss won't buy its product,it's useless to spend money and energy on such a project.And on the contrary,I believe that the SAC J-XX project has a high priority in the PLAAF's future plan if it's not more important than the J-20 due to the reasons:
1.The PLAAF intended to buid a both defensive and offensive force(by recent PLAAF publictions),the SAC J-XX fighter/bomber will be the backbone to project the air to ground firepower in an offensive mission.
2.If the SAC J-XX is cheaper enough(at least it seems so from current leaked information) than the J-20,mostlikely the PLAAF will buy more of it than the J-20.That means the PLAAF will form a high/low combination by the J-20/SAC J-XX.
3.I can smell the distrust from the PLAAF to the CAC.The SAC J-XX has a role to be the plan B that if the J-20 failed,the PLAAF still has another project to ensure the sucess.
Overall,the SAC J-XX services the PLAAF's future offensive plan and it's important to the PLAAF,the SAC project could not to be a self-funded one.It's important,if not more important than the J-20.

Well said, a multi-role jet meeting more of the PLA 4th gen 4S criteria than F35, T50, of one the SAC J-XX is claimed to be, will play an important role in any air force including PLAAF, with or without J20 which is likely an air-superiority jet despite certain "every jet is considered multi-role these days" claim.
But it's too strong a word to talk of distrust. It's just sound planning to have a SAC J-XX using more mature tech than J20, which is more radical, available just in case.
We see from F22 how when you push to the edge of tech, you're taking big risks. And J20 is definitely pushing the edge.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Well said, a multi-role jet meeting more of the PLA 4th gen 4S criteria than F35, T50, of one the SAC J-XX is claimed to be, will play an important role in any air force including PLAAF, with or without J20 which is likely an air-superiority jet despite certain "every jet is considered multi-role these days" claim.
But it's too strong a word to talk of distrust. It's just sound planning to have a SAC J-XX using more mature tech than J20, which is more radical, available just in case.
We see from F22 how when you push to the edge of tech, you're taking big risks. And J20 is definitely pushing the edge.

*rollseyes* Go two generations back if you want to find fighters dedicated to only one role. These days it's often more common to find one air frame modified and adapted for different roles. F-15C-->F-15E, F-18C/D-->F-18E/F, countless variations of the Su-27, etc. One design is not limited to one role.

This isn't to say that there won't be another 5th generation air frame. It's just unlikely for so many of them (I count 3-4 potential unique air frames) to be pursued and adopted in parallel.

In any case, it doesn't matter what any of us think. It depends on whether the PLAAF has any requests for new designs.
 
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70092

Junior Member
SAC's J-1X is not funded by SAC itself, it is funded by AVIC, and SAC has lots connections with the managements in AVIC, the current CEO of AVIC come from Shenyang, the big academic bully at AVIC, Dr. Gu, is from SAC.

And AVIC is a fortune 500 company, and it is a mega corporation that own most aircraft design insistute and manufacturing factories in China, and thanks to its CEO's un-professionalness, the company now has expending to other areas like investment firms and real-estate building agency, and they have indeed risen lots money by doing these.

The overall market cap. of AVIC, given tha if it it is allowed to be listed in stock market, should be around in 150-200 billion USD (currrently only 20% or so of its small sub-companies (e.g. no SAC/CAC/XAC/HAC) are allowed to be listed in market, the total market of these 20% has already exceeding 30 billion USD.

So of cause it is not impossible for AVIC to fund some stealth fighter projects all by themselves, especially if they believe they can eventually find market to sell their fighters,be it PLAAF, PLAN or oversea (considering the fact J-20 is completely funded by PLAAF and it is highly regarded in PLAAF so the likelihood of PLAAF allow CAC to export J-20 in the near future is slim).
 
I seriously don't think there's the need of that. It is inefficient use of logistics and resources. I hope and do believe, lots of these are rumors. J-16,17, 18 are essentially the same thing! And what's the point of J-2X? And why invest in JF-17B anyways? if it were me, I'd shave off the 16-18 into one thing, and attempt to retire the sub-J-10 stuffs into second line or use it in ways that are meant to be sacrificed but getting the most out of them.
 
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