Science Thread

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Don't like it?Come out with a better product
OpenAI's ChatGPT isn't anything special for the the big tech companies

Google, Meta, Baidu, Alibaba all have internal programs developing large scale language models

The only difference with ChatGPT is that OpenAI released it first, while the big tech companies kept it secret because of reputational risks (however, we could say that Google has a conflict on interest in AI-search because it would heavily damage its search-business revenue)
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
Gender reassignment and its associated artificial hormones / blockers is also a technology. Crypto coins and NFTs are also a technology.
Pursuing technology is all fine and dandy, but let's not pretend every single latest technology is a net positive on society and should be adopted en masse.

I think it's quite reasonable to be conservative with technology whose actual utility is dubious and margin compared with its capacity for harm. With mobile payments and e-commerce, the benefits were quite obvious; lower costs and friction for transactions which would increase the volume and speed of transactions. The concern was security but at least that is a well-defined and understood problem with very little chance of unintended consequences.

With Chat-GPT style "AI"[1]? It's little more than a search engine / chat bot and reveals it's fundamental flaws when asked anything complex. On the coding side, ask it anything more complicated than boilerplate/toy code and it just spits out nonsense. Not only nonsense, but sometimes hard-to-discern nonsense that may fool the less attentive. What is the utility here? Replacement of call-center (live chat) representatives? That is a legitimate reduction of cost for companies, but there are so many more downsides. Producing semi-convincing items that simply don't work. Vast increase in ghost writers answering school questions, essays, etc. Further and more convincing astroturfing on social media and e-commerce websites. The list goes on. There are so many easily foreseeable societal consequences, let alone the unknown unknowns. Societal problems are also, in general, the hardest to resolve. The benefits are not even close to offsetting the costs here.


It is quite easy to predict whether emerging technologies have potential to be useful. It's baked in to its business proposition. That only thing we don't know is how long and how much effort is needed to get that technology to a useful state. For example, fusion is going to be useful if it ever works. The problem there is we don't know how many decades or even centuries is needed to get it to work. On the other side, we also know ANT-style regulation-less digital banking is not going to ever be useful, regardless of how easy or hard it is to achieve. Stuff like Chat GPT and deepfakes in their current form lands in the latter rather than the former.

Research should continue of course, but not mass adoption.


[1]I specifically mention "AI" here because the approach demonstrated by Chat GPT and it's like are fundamentally unable to achieve GAI. Hence, we must be aware of its intrinsic limitations regardless of how developed it becomes. In other words, it can't become more than a chat bot.

Every time new technology emerges,there will always be groups of people left behind or even get hurt,but you cannot stop the inevitable trend.

You think mobile application is convenient and efficient?Older folks don't think so,when China is moving rapidly towards digitization,they got hurt. Because they cannot adapt the new social norm of doing everything on smartphone,this has been exacerbated during covid when alot of things has to be done electronically.

Again,you cannot stop the inevitable trend just because some are uncomfortable with new technology
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
Dude, ChatGPT and other large scale language models are coming for your online customer support jobs in 3 years. These AI companies will then also allow external companies to fine tune the model for their specific business/products which will further eliminate customer support jobs

People who aren't into technology don't/can't understand that we have had exponential AI growth in recent years. Its not just about ChatGPT, all other big tech companies have their AI models which they have refused to release because of reputational risks for the product not being ultra-polished. OpenAI's move with ChatGPT has just opened the floodgates.

Baidu, Alibaba will soon follow

Yes, I mentioned that the value these ChatGPT AIs provide is
Replacement of call-center (live chat) representatives?
That is online customer support and it
is a legitimate reduction of cost for companies

My contention is the negative consequences this technology will have on society outweigh the benefits from the elimination of online customer support jobs. I mentioned some of them.

People trying to pass off generated text as their own work - which has an issue because these models are only convincing and aren't actually able to have any consistent logic which may then pass QA and fail in production. Students using these language models to pass essays and tests from schools and universities resulting in ill-trained graduates in the workforce.

These companies will not need to deal with these problems themselves but rather pass onto the rest of society (negative externality). I don't see any easy way for regulations to make these companies pay appropriately for this damage either. It is as if we said it was okay to frack for shale oil everywhere and companies did just that and then contaminated the water table for entire regions producing a generation of brain-damaged locals. They produced something indeed (oil), but it didn't make up for the cost.
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
OpenAI's ChatGPT isn't anything special for the the big tech companies

Google, Meta, Baidu, Alibaba all have internal programs developing large scale language models

The only difference with ChatGPT is that OpenAI released it first, while the big tech companies kept it secret because of reputational risks (however, we could say that Google has a conflict on interest in AI-search because it would heavily damage its search-business revenue)

Whatever you think ChatGPT's technical level is irrelevant,the market will ultimately decide who have the last laugh
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
Every time new technology emerges,there will always be groups of people left behind or even get hurt,but you cannot stop the inevitable trend.

You think mobile application is convenient and efficient?Older folks don't think so,when China is moving rapidly towards digitization,they got hurt. Because they cannot adapt the new social norm of doing everything on smartphone,this has been exacerbated during covid when alot of things has to be done electronically.

Again,you cannot stop the inevitable trend just because some are uncomfortable with new technology
It's not a matter of "uncomfortable" that I am arguing. I didn't mention the costs, for example, of retraining customer service personnel if ChatGPT style models are mass adopted. That is simply the cost of doing business. Mobile payments and ecommerce also caused physical store closures and the associated loss of those jobs. But these things don't come into the business proposition because they always happen. That is just obsolescence.

These do not factor in to my critique.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yes, I mentioned that the value these ChatGPT AIs provide is

That is online customer support and it


My contention is the negative consequences this technology will have on society outweigh the benefits from the elimination of online customer support jobs. I mentioned some of them.

People trying to pass off generated text as their own work - which has an issue because these models are only convincing and aren't actually able to have any consistent logic which may then pass QA and fail in production. Students using these language models to pass essays and tests from schools and universities resulting in ill-trained graduates in the workforce.

These companies will not need to deal with these problems themselves but rather pass onto the rest of society (negative externality). I don't see any easy way for regulations to make these companies pay appropriately for this damage either. It is as if we said it was okay to frack for shale oil everywhere and companies did just that and then contaminated the water table for entire regions producing a generation of brain-damaged locals. They produced something indeed (oil), but it didn't make up for the cost.
Language models with voice models will also replace voice actors and all kinds of people working in the advertisement field.

Imagine how many ads we listen to every day, now imagine how many people are employed to do voice overs, now imagine all these people replaced.
And audiobooks as well, all voice actors are gone.

Now start thinking about artists working in marketing, also gone. Why should a businessman go to an artist to make him a logo or advertisement material when he can just have the AI do that for him for free and with maximum freedom.
And mind you, I just touched the most basic stuff. Paralegals, assistant accountants will also be gone or massively reduced.

Western capitalism + AI is a disaster for the working class. If anyone thinks that Western governments will use AI for better social development then lol, just see where the productivity gains flowed since the 1970s..
 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Robots Optimus Tesla began to collect themselves. Tesla specializes not only in the production of electric vehicles, but also in the development of humanoid robots. At a meeting for investors, Elon Musk demonstrated how two Optimus Tesla humanoid robots "assemble" a third robot. As you can see, the predictions of science fiction writers sooner or later become a reality. The current prototypes of Optimus robots can move at a speed of 8 km / h, lift up to 68 kg, carry up to 20 kg of cargo from place to place. At the same time, the Tesla robot weighs about 57 kg. Tesla plans to use thousands of Optimus robots in its factories, which will likely lead to job cuts. In the future, the company is going to sell robots, their cost will be about $20,000.

 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Airbus showed the project of the space station LOOP. The service life of the ISS is coming to an end and it is already necessary to create a replacement for it. Against the backdrop of what is happening in the world, humanity will either be able to create a new version of the space station accessible to all, or will build its own stations in near-Earth orbit. Airbus unveiled the concept of the new space station LOOP. The new project is a universal three-story station for life and work in space. The station can be delivered into orbit in a single launch of SpaceX's super-heavy launch vehicle. Each floor is 8 meters in diameter and can be converted into living quarters, laboratories and docking stations. The decks are connected at the center of the structure by a so-called "tunnel", which is surrounded by greenhouse modules. The LOOP station is designed for a crew of four, but can be adapted to accommodate up to eight people.

 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Elon Musk's Tesla Bot robots have learned to walk slowly. Tesla reported to shareholders on how the development of the universal android Tesla Optimus is progressing, which should become an assistant to a person in everyday life and at work. Also, the engineers of the Elon Musk Corporation taught the Optimus robots to collect things. In the video, anthropomorphic machines shift small items and arrange them in containers. According to Tesla experts, the learning of machines is based on the repetition of certain actions for a person. It is assumed that by the time of release, the Tesla Optimus robot will cost no more than $100,000. In the long term, Tesla Bot robots will bring the company the main income, according to Elon Musk, the demand for them will be up to 10 billion units.

 
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