Another thing is the sustainability of Russian economic growth. While Russian economy may run wild for some time it's going to hit hard times fairly soon as there is lack of new workforce due to fall in birth numbers during last years of Soviet Union and first years of new Russia. This is also going to hit armed forces as well. Yes, long-term population predictions are always tricky but the impact in age cohorts mostly effecting military (IMHO, 18-27 year olds) will be significant for a long time. Youngest recruits for 2025 are already coming.
Russian rearming cannot be of course anywhere compared to Soviet armed might.Even after rearming it's forces cannot be compared to even what EU countries could put up together. And ultimately the biggest thing lacking with Russia compared to Soviet Union is the lack of appealing ideology.
Here's Russia's solution: moving out. That means having their corporations purchase outside, build labor pools outside for commercial products, mainly in Africa. As well it means alliances with Iran and India to assist in the low labor pools.
India has a horribly underexploited workforce.
With Russian corporations like Gazprom bringing money to state coffers and allies like India providing additional cheap labor those problems can be alleviated. Also, a tightening of political control in Russia can certainly lead to prevention of the decreasing population by forceful means.
So, I think Russia is taking significant effort to reduce the societal and economic troubles of building a large modern military.
To be able to effectively to fight a global power Russia would have to be allied with some global power, whether EU, India, China or USA. What we will see after Russian re-arming at tops will be something comparable to Cold War France or UK in sense of power projection ability to either neighbouring countries or globally.
Well, yes, I would say alliance with India and Iran, which could develop into a global power. Then creating European dependence on Russia, would put them in a prime strategic position.
The real question, IMHO, will be what choice does Russia make in age-old defense calculation of quality versus quantity, or operations/personnel/material.
According to Sergei Ivanov the emphasis will be on maintaining the 1.1 million-man army, but making it increasingly professional and modern.
Ultimately, Russia's methods are very reliable. They look to consolidate all the world's major resource powers in the nuclear and hydrocarbon fields to create a dependency on Russia. They make those resource powers dependent through military sales or political and economic arrangements.
Russia being able to hold these cards as well as a strong nuclear arsenal, possibly expanded with renewed production of IRBMs, would provide the ultimate deterrence.
It's similar to the strategies thought up before World War I. The idea being that of major powers being able to wage total war through use of industrial assets. With Russia this includes nuclear deterrence, a large industrial capacity, major international corporate holdings, and a system of alliances with major skilled and unskilled labor pools.
